On August 15, 2021, when the Taliban invaded Kabul and seized power in Afghanistan, neighboring Pakistan exulted.

Afghans have "broken the chains of slavery", Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan had congratulated as thousands of people jostled at Kabul International Airport to try to board a plane and flee this "freedom". 

Imran Khan, nicknamed "Khan the Taliban" by his detractors, is used to this kind of tirade against the West.

If officially, Pakistan is an ally of the United States in its "war against terrorism", it has also always maintained close ties with the Afghan Taliban. 

During the twenty years of the American mission in Afghanistan, Pakistan was thus regularly accused of sheltering the Taliban forces.

And behind the scenes, despite Islamabad's repeated denials, seeing the Taliban take power was one of the goals of Pakistan's vast intelligence network run by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). 

In the middle of Pakistani military intelligence, this "double game" was also the subject of jokes, which were sometimes heard in the public domain.

In 2014, for example, when the US war in Afghanistan was in full swing, Hamid Gul, a former intelligence chief, made no secret of his desire for the US to leave Afghanistan when he was interviewed. live on a talk show.

“When history is written, it will be said that the ISI defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the help of the United States,” he said on live television, embellishing the role of Pakistan. in the end of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. "Then there will be another sentence: the ISI, with the help of America, defeated America", he said. he concluded, to laughter from the audience.  

Today, the United States has effectively left Afghanistan.

But, nearly six months after taking Kabul, this double-dealing strategy could backfire on Islamabad.

Because the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan has also led to a comeback of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban. 

TTP Offensive

The Taliban are distinct groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but they share a common ideology and are historically very close.

Each of the groups is also made up of members who live on either side of the border between the two countries.

If the Pakistani government is on good terms with the Afghan Taliban, perceived as potential regional allies against the great Indian enemy, it is in open conflict with the TTP, which it considers a terrorist group.

Formed in 2007, the TTP is accused of being responsible for hundreds of attacks in Pakistan, including the 2014 massacre of nearly 150 children at a military school in the northwestern city of Peshawar.

After hesitating for a long time between repression and dialogue, Islamabad went on the offensive in 2015, fighting against the group and regaining control of tribal areas, particularly on the border with Afghanistan.

Many members of the TTP then fled, particularly to this neighboring country.

Sunday, February 6, five members of the Pakistani forces were killed by gunfire from Afghanistan, in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on the border between the two countries.

Shortly after, the attack was claimed by the TTP.

"Pakistan strongly condemns the use of Afghan soil by terrorists," the army responded in a statement on Sunday, adding that it was determined to defend its border and calling on the "interim government in Kabul", "to not to allow such activities against Pakistan in the future".

Remarks that mark a change in tone from Islamabad towards their Afghan allies, experts agree. 

The Taliban "have failed to take sufficient measures to limit the activities of foreign terrorist fighters in the country", denounced the United Nations, in a report published on February 3.

"On the contrary, terrorist groups enjoy greater freedom there than at any other time in recent history."

The Pakistani strategy "of the good and bad Taliban" in question

In Pakistan, this comeback of the TTP, which has been weakened for several years with the authorities' offensive, calls into question the Pakistani policy of the "good and bad Taliban".

"For several years, Islamabad has been asking the government in Kabul to fight against these anti-Pakistan groups present on Afghan soil. With the arrival of the Taliban in power, it hoped to obtain more help than in the past", explains to France 24 Michael Kugelman, member of the Wilson Research Center in Washington.

"And the reverse is happening with increased security risks in Pakistan. We are indeed seeing a resurgence of the Pakistani Taliban as separatist groups in Balochistan intensify their attacks," he said.

"This shows that the Afghan Taliban are not a transparent entity", analysis, meanwhile, Ayesha Siddiqa, specialist in the question at King's College London, interviewed by France 24. "Pakistan can continue to support them, but it has little leverage to encourage them to suppress the TTP."

It's a question of "will and ability", continues Michael Kugelman.

"Theoretically, the Afghan Taliban have the ability to take on the TTP. In my view, it's more a question of will. They are not inclined to take coercive measures against this group because they have close ties with him. Ideologically, they are made of the same wood."

The Afghan Taliban as mediators

After two decades of this "good Taliban - bad Taliban" policy, Islamabad now finds itself confronted by the Afghan Taliban who are pursuing a "good Pakistan - bad Pakistan" strategy, writes the Pakistani journalist and writer, Kunwar Khuldune Shahid, in a column published in The Diplomat.

“Good Pakistan” “helped the Taliban rid the country of US-led forces,” Shahid writes.

'Bad Pakistan' now expects the Taliban to 'reciprocate'.  

Indeed, the Afghan Taliban quickly wanted to signal their independence from Islamabad.

Shortly after taking Kabul, they sent a clear message by releasing thousands of TTP prisoners, including the group's former deputy leader, Faqir Mohammad.

The TTP, meanwhile, welcomed their coming to power.

Since then, the Afghan Taliban have offered to facilitate talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government.

This overture, which was first accepted by Islamabad, enabled a month-long ceasefire last November.

The truce, however, expired on December 9 after peace talks broke down. 

Until August, Pakistan was aided in its fight against the TTP by US intelligence services.

Coordinated drone strikes killed the group's top leaders, including Hakimullah Mehsud in 2012 and his successor, Maulana Fazlullah, in 2018. "It's ironic when you consider that Pakistan has often complained that Washington is not responding to its terrorism concerns,” notes Michael Kugelman.

Today "the TTP will no longer be a priority for the United States. Pakistan can no longer count on them to help it fight terrorism. Washington is now focusing on Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State group and the threats to American interests," he said.

China and India, major players in the conflict

At the same time, the situation has been tense in recent weeks in the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan and Iran, plagued by separatist movements.

In early February, nine Pakistani soldiers were killed in an attack perpetrated by the separatist Baloch Liberation Army, according to information provided by the Pakistani authorities.

A prepared attack, according to Islamabad, from Afghanistan and India.

An accusation immediately denied by New Delhi. 

“It is understandable that Pakistan wonders about an external implication”, analyzes Michael Kugelman.

"What happened in Balochistan is unprecedented. These attacks against two border camps of the Pakistani army had a rarely seen level of sophistication that suggests outside help," he explains. 

"The problem is that Pakistan is so often focused on whether there has been outside help, that it is no longer interested enough in the fact that these attacks are taking place on its territory, with all the local help that entails," he continues.

However, if tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad are commonplace, the resurgence of attacks in this region could also undermine Pakistan's relations with Beijing.

For good reason, this region is at the heart of the "New Silk Roads" project wanted by China: the two countries plan to create a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) linking the western region of Xinjiang, in China, to the port strategic location in Gwadar, Balochistan. 

Not to mention that the Afghan Taliban, who consider China to be "a friend of Afghanistan", "could accede to Beijing's request to expel the Uyghur militants present on its soil", explains the specialist.

"It's much easier for them than going after the TTP, who comes from the same Pashtun ethnicity."

So far, China has refused to play any military role in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region.

"Pakistan is playing with fire"

Thus, by systematically looking for culprits abroad, while being deprived of American aid, Islamabad could see its support for Islamist power in Kabul harm it, with serious consequences for regional security. 

"Pakistan is playing with fire," says Michael Kugelman.

"This could lead to security risks in both South Asia and Central Asia."

"The Pakistani authorities are aware that this strategy could turn against them. It is inherent in its territory," said Ayesha Siddiqi.

"The Pakistani government can however retort that they are not governmental actors, that they are not under its control. And that, unfortunately, if soldiers die, they do it in the name of the Constitution of the country."

And Michael Kugelman.

to conclude: "As the attacks escalate in Pakistan, political inaction becomes an increasingly important risk for the Pakistani government. It will become a political issue".

This article was adapted from English by Cyrielle Cabot.

The original article can be read here.

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