This is reported by RBC, referring to the review of the agency available to the editors.
It is noted that the agency in the framework of the base scenario does not believe in the possibility of an escalation of the situation around Ukraine.
If this happens, then experts analyzed three main sanctions measures that the United States could introduce: sanctions on the secondary market for government debt, disconnecting Russian banks from SWIFT, and including Russian financial institutions on the SDN sanctions list.
According to the agency, even in the most extreme scenario, when all non-residents completely exit the Russian foreign currency and ruble government debt, Russian banks will be able to absorb the increased supply of government securities.
As for the disconnection from SWIFT, this will not lead to the termination of cross-border Russian payments, although banks will have to look for alternative payment methods.
At the same time, it is noted that although the Russian side is developing its own SPFS system, the representation of foreign banks in it remains insignificant.
The inclusion of Russian state-owned banks in the SDN list is considered by analysts to be the most negative measure, as this will lead to the fact that even non-US counterparties of Russian banks will face the fact that they will have to follow US sanctions.
The combination of these sanctions may lead to the fact that there may be difficulties with payments, including on sovereign debt.
Separately, Moody's adds that US initiatives to block high-tech exports to Russia may negatively affect the Russian economy.
This will affect the pace of economic modernization and support for further diversification of the country's exports.
Earlier, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Ukraine's credit rating outlook.
In April 2021, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia is actively working to abandon payment systems that are controlled by Western countries.