The Indian state of Uttar Pradesh begins its regional elections on Thursday, February 10.

Won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Hindu nationalist party of Narendra Modi, in 2017, they are attracting all eyes this year.

The conquest of this state, the most populous and one of the poorest in the country, is indeed seen as an essential step towards national power and as a test for Narendra Modi.

"Narendra Modi's BJP has a slim majority in Parliament at the national level, recalls Gilles Verniers, political science researcher at Ashoka University (north India) and Sciences Po, interviewed by France 24. To maintain it, they must win this election decisively."

The 200 million inhabitants of Uttar Pradesh (almost the equivalent of the population of Brazil) indeed elect 80 of the 544 deputies in the National Assembly.

A sweeping victory for the BJP in the northern state would therefore maintain its dominance over Indian politics, while a defeat or narrow majority could spell trouble in the upcoming national elections in 2024. 

Fierce repression of Muslims

The outgoing governor, the controversial Yogi Adityanath, is therefore playing his re-election, but also the validation of the violent pro-Hindu policy that he leads in the name of the BJP, very far from the secular and democratic principles under which India was built.

Under the governance of this monk-soldier always dressed in saffron, the robe of monks in India, Uttar Pradesh has become a veritable laboratory, pushing discrimination against minorities to unprecedented levels, and in particular those aimed at Indian Muslims.

"80% of the population against 20% of criminals", proclaims Yogi Adityanath in one of his campaign slogans, a transparent allusion to the 20% of Muslims who populate the northern state.

Since its election in 2017, Uttar Pradesh has adopted several laws stigmatizing Muslims.

One of them thus punishes mixed marriages with ten years' imprisonment, in the name of the fight against "Love Jihad".

This conspiracy theory wielded by the ruling party accuses Muslim men of seeking to seduce Hindu women in order to convert them.

Religious conversions were also banned.

Pushing this "Hindu dystopia" even further, the regional government regularly calls on the population to be vigilant.

Understand that he encourages her to denounce mixed marriages to the authorities, but also to take justice into her own hands.

The governor himself founded the Hindū Yuvā Vāhin

,

a paramilitary organization accused of lynching Muslims.

A large victory in the elections could cause this type of measure to be extended to other Indian states, warns Gilles Verniers.

"The Uttar Pradesh elections are a popularity test for Narendra Modi's policies. A landslide victory for the BJP will encourage the party to toughen its policies domestically."

Anti-terrorism laws

But this violent identity politics may not be enough this time to rally the 80% of Hindus in the state to the BJP, nuance the historian specializing in contemporary India Arundhati Virmani, interviewed by France 24.

Yogi Adityanath indeed concentrates the discontent of several categories of the population.

His handling of the pandemic has been widely criticized, especially after his use of anti-terrorism laws to suppress journalists and members of civil society.

Citizens were thus imprisoned after denouncing the lack of oxygen and medicine in hospitals during the second wave of Covid-19.

Farmers, often dalits ("Untouchables"), are also furious: the law passed by Yogi Adityannath making the slaughter of cows, sacred to Hindus, a crime of high treason has heavily penalized them.

They also bear a grudge against the governor for the violent repression that he deployed against their opposition movement.

For a year, they marched across the country to denounce the reforms to liberalize agriculture, until they were abandoned by the government.

Serious socio-economic problems

For Arundhati Virmani, the policy of seduction led by Adytiannah towards certain castes, through subsidies or the distribution of money, is therefore insufficient in the face of the serious socio-economic problems encountered by the State.

"Uttar Pradesh is very poor, underlines Arundhati Virmani. It takes substantive work to improve the social and economic situation. We always put forward the religious card, but the electorate wants above all to enjoy a decent standard of living The government is trying to seduce the dalits by telling them 'you are Hindus first', but after their year of protesting as farmers, I'm not sure that's enough, you can't tell them 'be proud of' being Hindus and too bad for the rest'"

Uttar Pradesh is indeed the only Indian region to see its per capita income drop systematically for three years.

Its unemployment rate is also one of the highest in the country, and it concentrates a very high rate of extreme poverty.

"Yogi Adityannath's policy of openness to castes was deemed insufficient, even within his own party, continues Gilles Verniers. He himself is a member of the Kshatriya caste, one of the highest, and he has appointed positions of power of many people from the same caste as him. This was criticized internally".

Eleven figures of the BJP, mostly from lower castes, have recently slammed the door of the party in protest.

The BJP nevertheless remains in a position of strength in Uttar Pradesh, mastering public space such as the media and disposing of significant resources in the face of a fragmented opposition.

The outcome of the election remains uncertain, however, and will have strong implications for India's future.

Yogi Adityannath does not hide his ambition to succeed Narendra Modi as Prime Minister.

Obtaining a strong majority in the elections would thus allow it to consolidate its position as India's No. 2.

Conversely, a defeat or loss of ground would open a door for the opposition.

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