Text/Wang Enbo
In 2021, the total GDP of many provinces has broken through an important threshold, and after the local economy has achieved stable economic recovery, how to set the development goals in 2022 has become a big suspense.
Except for Tianjin, which was postponed due to the epidemic, the other 30 provinces have successively held local two sessions since the beginning of this year, and put forward the main economic indicators targets for 2022 in the government work report.
Behind the figures, the focus of local economic work in the new year has also emerged.
GDP targets have been lowered in many places
Drawing of Hou Yutong's direct train to the country
In 2021, a total of 11 provinces will outperform the national GDP growth rate of 8.1%.
Entering 2022, with the weakening of the low base effect, various regions have also pragmatically lowered their GDP growth targets, with most provinces setting them within the range of 5.5% to 7%.
Among them, Hubei, which will lead the country in terms of economic growth in 2021, has set the target for 2022 at "about 7%", and stated that it will strive for better results in actual work.
Hainan, which ranked second in terms of growth rate last year, continued to set high standards, with a target of "about 9%" being the highest in the country.
In 2021, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong, whose economic aggregates rank among the top three in the country, will all aim at a figure of 5.5% in 2022.
Among them, Guangdong's target is set at "about 5.5%", while Jiangsu and Shandong should strive for "above 5.5%".
In addition, the GDP targets of central and western provinces are generally relatively high.
For example, the GDP of central provinces such as Henan, Anhui, and Jiangxi is expected to grow by 7% or "above 7%", while the western regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou and Tibet are expected to grow by "about 7%" or "about 8%".
The analysis believes that the above target setting not only takes into account the risks and challenges of economic operation under the uncertainty of the epidemic, but also takes into account practical needs such as the connection with the "14th Five-Year Plan" target, the level of potential economic growth, and stabilizing market expectations.
Ying Xiwen, a senior macro analyst at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, analyzed that the above-mentioned 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities can be roughly divided into two categories when setting their development goals for 2022.
The first category is relatively pragmatic and prudent, and its announced goals are not far behind the potential growth rate. It can be considered that in 2022, in addition to stabilizing growth as the main task, certain reform goals will also be taken into account.
The other category is provinces that are challenging to achieve their development goals, and their goals are on the high side compared to their potential growth rates.
Among them, some are relatively enterprising provinces, such as Hainan, Jiangxi, Anhui, etc., which will take speeding up economic growth as an important goal in 2022; the other is provinces with relatively high pressure on economic growth and relatively arduous tasks of stabilizing growth, such as Liaoning, Jilin et al.
Expanding domestic demand is still the main theme
The goal has been set, the next question is "how to accomplish it".
Judging from the information disclosed by the local two sessions, domestic demand is still the main driving force for economic growth, and the expansion of effective investment and the release of consumer demand are the focus of attention.
Liang Jing, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that in the face of the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, all regions will put stable growth in a more important position.
The external environment has become more complex and severe, and export growth is facing the pressure of slowing down. How to stimulate the potential of domestic demand has become one of the priorities of local layout.
Liang Jing noted that in 2022, various localities proposed to actively cultivate new growth points of consumption, including promoting bulk consumption such as automobiles and oil products, encouraging home appliances to the countryside and trade-in, promoting new energy vehicle consumption, cultivating county and township, green, digital, sports, etc. Consumption hotspots, support new forms of consumption.
Some initiatives with regional characteristics have also been put on the agenda.
For example, Beijing and Chongqing, which took the lead in developing international consumption center cities, respectively proposed to carry out in-depth special actions for international consumption center cities and implement "ten projects" such as improving the quality of international consumption carriers.
In terms of investment, many provinces have set higher-than-GDP growth targets for 2022.
During the Spring Festival holiday that just passed, the key projects in many places across the country did not stop working, and they made a good start to the first quarter, which also became a footnote to the efforts to expand effective investment in various places.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities Research Institute, pointed out that this year's local government reports focus more on investment and have more detailed arrangements. More than a dozen provinces including Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have clarified the key areas and major projects for investment this year. and investment intensity.
Specifically, it is expected that this year's investment will focus on infrastructure and manufacturing technology, and focus on leading major projects.
New kinetic energy expands new space
Actively cultivating new kinetic energy, leading high-quality development driven by innovation, and expanding space for economic growth have also become an important direction for local efforts to stabilize growth in the new year.
For example, Liang Jing said that in terms of improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, on the one hand, all localities emphasized the supplementary chain, extending the chain and strengthening the chain. Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other regions have proposed to cultivate industrial chain "chain master" enterprises, manufacturing On the other hand, it is also focusing on promoting the development of industrial clusters.
The new crown epidemic has further accelerated the digital transformation of the economy and society, and the digital economy has become the focus of economic work deployment in various regions.
Zhang Yu observed that in order to implement the national goal of "by 2025, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP", this year's local government work report has placed the digital economy in a prominent position.
For example, the government work reports of Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei and other provinces have appeared for the first time in the new indicator "the proportion of the added value of the core industries of the digital economy in the regional GDP".
With the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, and other major regional strategies, all regions are actively planning to strengthen regional cooperation, Optimize the economic layout and form a joint development force.
Improving the influence of regional competitiveness through the construction of metropolitan circles and urban agglomerations is also valued by all regions.
For example, Beijing proposes to fully support the construction of the Xiongan New Area and accelerate the construction of a modern capital metropolitan area; Guangdong proposes to speed up the construction of the "Greater Bay Area on Track", and promote the construction of Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone at a high level; Hubei proposes to make Wuhan bigger and stronger City circle, accelerate the construction of the most dynamic, competitive, influential, and comprehensive provincial metropolitan area in the country; Sichuan proposes to comprehensively speed up the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.
Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities and Dean of the Research Institute, also noted that in addition to implementing major national and regional strategies and regional coordinated development strategies, as well as accelerating regional coordinated development within the province and promoting urban-rural integration, Jiangxi, Yunnan, The action of "strengthening the provincial capital" proposed by provinces such as China, Gansu and other provinces has also injected new meaning into the coordinated development of the province.