LONDON

- The crisis between Kiev and Moscow and the Russian military alert on the border with Ukraine summarize the state of the conflict that has been raging for years between the West and Russia, on land, at sea and in the air.

Russia is moving in more than one region and in more than one way in order to expand its sphere of influence and repel the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and to display its military capabilities in front of Western armies.

The naval and air military skirmishes, especially between Russia on the one hand, and Britain and the United States on the other, do not happen by chance or by mistake, but rather they contain many messages from both sides.

Land.. the red line

To further understand Russian behavior on the Ukrainian border, experts track Russia's western movements on its nearby borders. Since 2004, NATO has begun to include countries from Eastern Europe that were part of what was known as the Soviet Union (the disintegration of 1991).

In 2004, seven countries from Eastern Europe joined NATO: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Croatia and Albania joined them in 2009.


Russia watched all this Western expansion with great apprehension, which prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2008 to warn American diplomats that any step to include Ukraine in NATO would be a "hostile act towards Russia", putting Putin a red line in front of the Americans and NATO.

The situation worsened when the United States deployed the "Aegis Ashur" defense system in Romania and Poland, a missile defense system, which the Russian President had previously warned of, and said that with a simple disruption of its systems, it could reach Moscow in just ten minutes.

Putin promised to direct his country's strategic missiles to these countries that host American missiles as part of reciprocity.

In his book “Close from abroad” by a professor at Virginia Tech University in the United States, international affairs professor Gerard Tolle talks about Putin’s main goal from all these moves, which is to “restore the great glories of Russia,” not to revive the Soviet Union, as some analyzes go.

In the summer of 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote an article asserting that he would not allow Ukraine to be an enemy country to Russia, because Russians and Ukrainians are "one people."


Battle of the Black Sea

Russia views the Black Sea as its outlet to the Mediterranean, and therefore does not want to allow countries such as Ukraine or Georgia to join NATO so as not to be at the mercy of the alliance or its affiliated countries.

Russia spares no effort to expand its influence in the Black Sea, which gives it the warm transit of gas and ships, when the rest of the Russian ports are frozen in time of frost.

The West is aware of this reality and knows the Russian desire to expand its influence in the Black Sea, and what it fears most is that Russia’s greater control over this sea will mean Russia’s orientation towards the warm waters of the Mediterranean and the search there for new partners and influence that worries the West.

To show its seriousness in dealing with the Black Sea, the Russian Navy did not hesitate to fire warning shots at the British aircraft carrier "Queen Elizabeth" as it passed near the Crimean island, when Russia considered that the British were encroaching on its territorial waters, while the British response was that those waters are waters international.

The difference in assessment between the West and Russia over the areas of influence in the Black Sea, made it one of the most dangerous seas, in terms of military tension.

According to the American Strategic Center for International Studies (CSIS), Russia views the Black Sea as an important buffer water mass, protecting it from any political or military fluctuations that could come from the south or east, which means that it enters areas vital to its security.

According to the same center, the Russian assessment of the situation in the Black Sea is the growing Western influence in these waters.

Moscow believes that part of Russia is within the range of American medium-range missiles, which are carried on aircraft carriers.


Atmosphere... a show of force

As for the air, skirmishes between the Russian Air Force on one side and the British and American Air Force on the other do not stop, and skirmishes take place to show strength and test the speed of reaction on the other side.

It is the most areas of air confrontations between Russia and the United States in the skies of the Black Sea and also the Pacific Ocean, where the interceptions do not stop between the two parties.

According to observers, the reason for this air tension is that this ocean is an important sea corridor for aircraft carriers as well as for nuclear submarines, which prompted the US Air Force to intercept a nuclear submarine reconnaissance plane flying in the Pacific Ocean, for fear of being detected by any American nuclear submarine.

In the Black Sea, at the end of 2021, the Russian Air Force intercepted two French Mirage 2000 and Rafale fighters, as well as a French Air Force KC-135 supply plane, as well as two American reconnaissance planes.

According to the Russian Air Force, these planes approached Russian airspace without violating it.