French President Emmanuel Macron visits Ukraine, where tensions continue, to meet with President Zelensky, and to consolidate a ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine, where government troops and Russian-backed armed groups continue to fight to overcome the situation. We agreed on the importance of that.

French President Emmanuel Macron visited Ukraine on the 8th following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin the day before as Russia deployed a large military unit around the border with Ukraine and military tensions continued. , Meet with President Emmanuel Macron.



Since 2014, Ukraine has been sporadic fighting between government forces and Russian-backed armed groups in the east without a standstill agreement, which could give Russia an excuse for a military invasion. There are also concerns such as.



At a joint press conference after the meeting, President Macron revealed that both President Putin and President Zelensky agreed on the importance of a thorough ceasefire.


"Sharing this determination is the only way to build peace," he said. Russia, Ukraine and Germany will hold high-ranking talks with Russia and Germany on the 10th in Berlin to comply with the ceasefire. Said.



President Zelensky also expressed his desire to aim for discussions at the summit level of the four countries in the future.



On the other hand, while Russia is demanding that NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization not be expanded any more, the Western side has shown a position not to make concessions, and there is no way to alleviate tensions. Hmm.

Ukrainian troops also have military exercises from 10th this month

Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov has revealed that Ukrainian troops will also carry out military exercises on the same schedule as the joint military exercises of the Russian and Belarusian forces are scheduled to take place from the 10th to the 20th of this month. did.



Ukrainian military exercises will be held in northern Ukraine, which is close to the border with Belarus, and will use unmanned aerial vehicles and anti-tank missiles, which Russia is said to be wary of.



The United States and others are increasing caution that Russian troops may invade Ukraine by concentrating troops in Belarus in the name of joint military exercises.



Ukraine seems to want to increase its vigilance and restrain the movement of Russian troops by conducting exercises on the same schedule as Russia and Belarus.

American think tank "6 options for invasion"

A group at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank, released a report late last month, pointing out that Russia has at least six possible military options.


The six options pointed out by the report are:



1: While withdrawing ground troops from around the Ukrainian border, continue to support pro-Russian factions and launch cyber attacks.



2: Dispatch troops to areas controlled by pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine.


It is a scenario that shakes the Ukrainian government without conducting a full-scale battle.



3: Occupy the eastern side of the Dnieper River, which flows from north to south through Ukraine, passes through the capital Kiev and flows into the Black Sea.


It is said that the aim is to divide Ukraine into east and west with the river as the boundary, and to drive the administration into collapse by sabotage.



4: Occupy the eastern side of the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coast from the Transnistria region in eastern Moldova to the Russian border.



5: Occupy the Black Sea coast to Transnistria and the Russian border.


Transnistria is an influential region where Russia has unilaterally declared independence from Moldova and has troops stationed there.


In addition, by occupying the area along the Black Sea coast, it seems that there is an aim to seize a trading base and damage the Ukrainian economy.



And


6: occupy the whole of Ukraine.

In an interview with NHK, CSIS Senior Deputy Director Seth Jones, who conducted the analysis, said, "If Russia moves, it may be around Donetsk and Lugansk, which are dominated by pro-Russian militants in the east, or the geographical boundary. It is highly likely that it will invade the eastern side of the Dnieper River, which is the line, and divide Ukraine into east and west. Then, it is more likely than a full-scale invasion to send operatives to the west side of Ukraine and utilize it. May push the administration into collapse by combining assassination and vandalism to make the Ukrainian army think it is about to be defeated. "



"If that doesn't work, the result may be something like East and West Germany, North Korea and South Korea. Ukraine is divided into two parts, centered on the demilitarized zone, one dominated by pro-Western countries and the other by Russia. There could be a situation like that, "he warned.



In addition, the CSIS report analyzes how Russian troops are being strengthened based on satellite images.



According to an analysis of troops stationed in Yelnya, western Russia, about 260 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border, tanks, self-propelled artillery, and short-range ballistic missiles were found from early November to late January last year. It means that the deployment such as is increased by more than 20%.



In addition, four new fighter-bombers, the Sukhoi Su-34, which were also used for air strikes on Syria, are believed to have been newly deployed at the Voronezh air force base in western Russia.



"In addition to the strengthening of Russian troops, there are also Belarusian and non-regular paramilitary and civilian military organizations on the Russian side. If Russia moves, the Belarusian and Irregular troops," said Jones. It is enough to invade Russia. If it decides to move, it is likely to be a hybrid invasion that combines regular and non-regular troops. "



"If Russia invades, some kind of warm relationship between Russia and Europe will end. It will be a decisive point for a new" iron curtain "extending from the Russian border," he said. Pointed out that may start.

U.S. experts There are three reasons not to send troops to Ukraine

Regarding President Biden's response to Russia's invasion, Senior Deputy Director Jones pointed out that "we will not send troops to Ukraine."



There are three reasons for this:


▽ Ukraine is not a NATO member and has no defense obligations


▽ The United States has just withdrawn its military from Afghanistan and does not want to be involved in a conflict that will never end,


▽ US Russia He pointed out that if the two countries face each other directly in the military, the situation could escalate to a nuclear war.



"In the 1980s, US troops did not deploy regular troops in Afghanistan, which was invaded by the Soviet Union, but militarily supported forces that resisted the Soviet Union. Soldiers from both the United States and Russia directly on the ground. It's a more likely way than to counter it, "he said, saying that the United States could continue to support U.S. pro-Western factions and counter Russian troops, putting Ukraine in a muddy civil war like Afghanistan. I sounded a warning that I could fall.