CAIRO -
The 35th ordinary African summit, which kicked off in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Saturday and will last for two days, awaits a long list of hot files, most notably Israel's membership as an observer in the African Union and the series of military coups that the continent witnessed recently.
In a rare precedent in the last few years, the great momentum of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam file declined weeks before the summit, at a time when Addis Ababa made great strides in the construction and filling operations, and began the countdown to generating electricity from the dam, although it seems related Egyptian conviction of the failure of the African Union to sponsor the negotiations and resolve the tense file for years.
This comes in conjunction with the discussion of Israel's membership as an observer in the union, which is no less dangerous - according to observers - than the issue of the dam on Egypt's national security, and the momentum around this issue has increased since the Chairman of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki announced - last summer - accepting Tel Aviv as an observer from Without referring to the members of the union, while a vote on this decision is awaited at the upcoming meeting, after it was rejected by several countries.
In this regard, Al Jazeera Net monitors the dimensions and scenarios of the outcomes of the current African summit, focusing on the files of the Renaissance Dam and its artistic and diplomatic future, and Israel's membership as an observer in the Union and the implications and risks it carries for Egyptian national security.
First: The Renaissance Dam:
The dam file was not included in the summit agenda, according to Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti, at a press conference two weeks ago.
In an indication of anticipating the events of the summit, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed last January - in a statement - his country's intention to cooperate with Egypt and Sudan on the dam file, without referring to the return of negotiations.
It is clear from Abi Ahmed's statement that the official language of speech has changed from accusations to a call for cooperation, although it carries an affirmation of the position's stability that returning to the negotiating table will not yield new results, as it did in previous rounds.
Egyptian observers had previously considered Abiy Ahmed's statement a "new Ethiopian maneuver" to gain more time on the dam file.
On the other hand, the Egyptian endeavors converged with Senegal as the new head of the African Union.
demands and readiness
The former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Nasr Allam, said that it is not yet clear whether the African summit will discuss the dam file or not, especially since the summit will witness the beginning of Senegal taking over the presidency of the Union, succeeding Congo.
According to Allam's statements - to Al Jazeera Net - there is a need for Egypt to raise the file in any way at the summit meetings, and to demand at least that Ethiopia not take any new unilateral position, especially with regard to the heightening of the dam's body or the initiation of a third filling;
To prevent the issue from aggravating until an agreement is reached on the rules of filling and operation.
However, he believed that Sudan's current conditions may prevent the file from being presented at the summit due to the absence of the government.
In turn, the expert in African affairs and Egyptian national security, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed, went on to say that Egypt witnessed a strong diplomatic movement during the last period, citing Sisi's meetings with his Algerian and Senegalese counterparts, in addition to other meetings dealing with the dam file that were on the sidelines of international conferences and forums.
Abdel Wahed stressed - in statements to Al Jazeera Net - that his country is fully prepared for any upcoming negotiations, pointing to the importance of Arab reunification and arranging its issues that witness special threats in the water file, whether in Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Syria or Lebanon.
The role of the African Union
According to former Minister Allam, the Congo did not provide anything useful during its presidency of the Union regarding the dam file. All it did was offer an initiative that was rejected by Ethiopia, which also witnessed a civil war.
He considered that all matters did not help to find a ground for serious negotiations;
Unfortunately, and crises of logic, most notably the faltering transitional period in Sudan, where "the African Union had no power in managing it," he said.
On the other hand, Major General Abdel Wahed expected that the issue of the dam would be raised at the summit, and that Congo would present a report on the most important events that happened in the past period of negotiations, expecting Senegal to also seek to play a role in this vital and sensitive file to complete the process.
He said that the Renaissance Dam crises season usually begins with the month of February, stressing the need for the African Union to also have a role in reaching a binding and just solution that satisfies all parties.
outputs and scenarios
Allam underestimates the ability of the African Union to resolve the dam file in the future, pointing to the absence of any strong role for it in the problems of the continent and the aspirations of its peoples, warning of the repercussions of taking any unilateral action that increases the gap between the three countries, and pushes a stage that may be difficult to reverse.
Whatever the outcome, Abdel Wahed stressed that his country will continue with its fateful cause, which is considered life or death, and will not give up a single drop of its rights to the Nile waters, pointing to the Egyptian experts' skepticism about the fact that Ethiopia has completed the second filling of the dam lake, according to analyzes and satellite images. .
Second: Israel's membership
There is agreement that putting forward Israel's membership as an observer may create an internal conflict in the union, and threaten the vital and strategic depth of Egypt, regardless of the degree of rapprochement between the two countries.
Any decision on Israel needs the support of two-thirds of the member states of the organization, and there are great objections and reservations, some of which are related to procedural aspects.
According to former Minister Allam, all matters are contained in Israel's acceptance or non-acceptance of an observer member, in light of international changes, the latest of which was US pressure on Sudan to strengthen the normalization agreement between Khartoum and Tel Aviv in late 2020.
The previous opinion reinforces what the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly V., said last Tuesday, that Washington believes that the absence of a civilian-led government has affected the normalization negotiations between Sudan and Israel.
Sudan has become the sixth Arab country, along with Egypt, Jordan, the Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, to normalize relations with Israel.
Algeria and South Africa lead the wall in the face of Israel's admission to the organization, at a time when Western press reports indicated that among the biggest supporters of Israel are Rwanda and Morocco, while many countries did not clarify their position.
The Egyptian position and its repercussions
According to Allam, the African countries as a whole - and not only the Arabs - should reject Israel's membership, which has vague and secret goals, stressing that Israel remains the permanent enemy of Egypt, and it is an occupying country, no matter how the facts change from time to time.
While Major General Abdel Wahed expected that the summit would witness widespread controversy due to the Israeli demand between opponents and agreeers, and it will be hot this year, noting that the problem remains in Israel itself, which was boycotted by African countries until recently.
He added that the summit activities will reveal whether more countries will join the blocking wall represented by 25 countries so far, or whether among the rejecting countries will change their position after the shuttle tours to Israel, and after normalization with Morocco, Sudan and Chad.
Israeli intentions
According to Abdel Wahed, Israel is seeking - by inserting itself in the continent - to achieve many gains, the most important of which are:
Completing recent normalization successes.
Maintain African friendships and obtain the support of African voices in international forums to support their issues and break their isolation.
Economic factors, most notably the size of African wealth in minerals, oil, energy, gas and others.
Playing on the contradictions of countries to get their wealth.
Africa is a fertile market for Israeli products, whether technological or related to advanced military armaments, or agricultural investments and the fields of education and culture.