Playing for the public: why the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine announced the impossibility of implementing the Minsk agreements

The implementation of the Minsk agreements by Ukraine in its current form is impossible, since this will lead to the collapse of the country.

This was stated by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of the country Alexei Danilov in an interview with the Associated Press.

“Implementation of the Minsk agreements means the destruction of the country.

When they signed under the barrel of a Russian pistol — which Germany and France were watching — it was already clear to any sane person that it was impossible to implement these documents, ”Danilov said.

The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council also warned the West against trying to put pressure on Kiev in order to force it to return to the implementation of the agreements.

“If they insist on the implementation of the Minsk agreements in their current form, it will be very dangerous for our country.

If the public does not accept these agreements, this could lead to a very difficult situation inside the country, and Russia is counting on this,” Danilov added, calling for negotiations on a new, more “realistic” document, which should oblige “Putin to withdraw his troops and tanks."

Danilov's words were commented by adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak.

He noted that the statement of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council should be treated as "journalistic."

At the same time, Podolyak said that the Minsk agreements are a framework agreement and that Kiev is looking for ways to implement them.

“Recognizing the significance of this agreement, both President Zelensky and the Office of the President and the entire government team are working to determine such steps for the implementation of Minsk that guarantee an honest and lasting peace for Ukraine.

The authorities do not reject the Minsk agreements, but do everything in order to completely preserve the sovereignty and democratic character of Ukraine throughout our territory within their framework, ”Interfax-Ukraine quotes him as saying.

The Ukrainian parliamentary opposition reacted to Danilov's words.

The Opposition Platform - For Life party demanded his resignation from the post of Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council and called the statement "cynical and criminal." 

Vladimir Putin also drew attention to the statement.

The Russian leader mentioned this statement during a joint press conference following talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

“On the one hand, we hear statements that Ukraine wants to fulfill (these agreements. -

).

We are constantly blamed for not complying with the Minsk agreements.

And at the same time, there are public statements that if Ukraine fulfills these Minsk agreements, it will fall apart,” Putin said.

In turn, Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya recalled that Moscow is not a party to the Minsk agreements, as they constantly try to present in the West.

“All the obligations that are set out there relate to Kiev and Donbass,” the diplomat stressed.

Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, expressed the opinion that Danilov, by his statement, actually admitted that official Kiev in its policy relies on radical and nationalist groups that oppose a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Donbass.

“The Zelensky administration recognizes that the implementation of these agreements can greatly aggravate the situation inside Ukraine, because radicals categorically oppose them.

All this can become a trigger for destabilizing the political situation in the country and another coup, ”Denisov emphasized.

In addition, if the republics of Donbass receive a special status, as stipulated by the Minsk agreements, Ukraine, in fact, will become an asymmetric federation, the expert added.

“These regions, due to their special status, will be able to influence the foreign policy of the state.

This will mean that they will have the right to vote on issues such as joining NATO,” Denisov explained.

Path to settlement

Recall, signed in 2014-2015.

The Minsk agreements put an end to active hostilities in eastern Ukraine.

The confrontation there unfolded in April 2014, when politicians who came to power as a result of a coup d'état launched a military operation against residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions who refused to obey official Kiev.

In August and early September 2014, there were bloody battles for the city of Ilovaisk, which ended in the defeat of the Ukrainian army.

Against the backdrop of these events, Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko unveiled their initiatives to end hostilities in the Donbass.

They formed the basis of the protocol approved on September 5, 2014 in Minsk by the members of the Trilateral Contact Group.

The document was signed by representatives of Ukraine, the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR, the OSCE and Russia.

However, despite the signed protocol, which is also called the first Minsk agreement, the situation in Donbass escalated again in January 2015.

To resolve the situation, on February 11 and 12, a meeting of the leaders of the Normandy Four countries — Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany — was held in Minsk.

• Leaders of the Normandy format in Minsk in 2015

• AP

• © Alexander Zemlianichenko

As a result of the talks, the heads of the Quartet countries agreed on the so-called Set of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, better known as the Second Minsk Agreement.

It was signed by members of the contact group, as well as the heads of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass.

This document received the support of the UN Security Council and became a binding international legal document.

The Second Minsk Agreement provides, among other things, for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line under OSCE monitoring, the exchange of prisoners on the principle of "all for all", as well as the reform of the Constitution of Ukraine in order to secure the special status of certain regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Later, the “Steinmeier formula” was approved, a provision according to which special status will be granted to Donbass on the day of early elections in the region on a temporary basis.

On a permanent basis, the law on special status should come into force after confirmation of the legitimacy of the vote by the OSCE.

Since 2015, almost all meetings of the Quartet have been devoted to the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

Gradually, however, the Kiev authorities actually froze their implementation, which made holding new meetings pointless.

Kiev agreed to return to the discussion of the issue only in 2019, after the assumption of the post of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.

On October 1, 2019, at a regular meeting of the contact group in Minsk, the “Steinmeier formula” was agreed upon and signed by all parties, including the Ukrainian delegation.

In December 2019, the first meeting of the leaders of the Quartet countries in three years was held in Paris.

As a result of this summit, the parties published a communiqué, which spoke of the need to integrate the "Steinmeier formula" into Ukrainian legislation, as well as commitment to the Minsk agreements.

Zelensky's formula

However, despite the outcome of the Paris summit, the Zelensky administration began to publicly broadcast its dissatisfaction with the Minsk agreements.

At the end of December 2020, the President of Ukraine openly stated that he would like to withdraw from the agreements, but he cannot do this.

“As I said at one of the briefings, I believe that we cannot simply withdraw from the Minsk agreements.

Because the Europeans can lift sanctions from Russia and representatives of ORDLO (certain regions of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. -

).

But personally, I would go out,” Zelensky said.

• Vladimir Zelensky

• © president.gov.ua

Moscow has repeatedly expressed concern over the actual preparations being made by Kiev to withdraw from the agreements.

At the same time, at the end of 2021, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, said that Kiev did not plan to leave the Minsk agreements and was ready to fulfill its obligations.

As Konstantin Blokhin, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a RT commentary, the latest statement by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine once again confirms that Kiev did not even think to comply with the Minsk agreements.

“All this was a sham in order to play for time, to strengthen the regime, to shell the Donbass.

All this was designed, in fact, only for the public, ”the political scientist emphasized.

However, despite such statements, Kiev will not receive carte blanche to withdraw from the agreements from the West, Blokhin believes.

“In the eyes of the international community, this will look like an act of aggression on the part of the leaders of the West: that it was they who unleashed a possible escalation in the Donbass,” the expert explained.

Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, noted that Danilov's statement suggests that Kiev is unwilling and unable to follow these agreements.

“The current political elite of Ukraine is signing its inability to solve state issues.

The Minsk agreements are not just some kind of declaration, they are an official document recognized at the international level.

It bears the signatures of Ukrainian statesmen who have committed themselves to its implementation.

These agreements are the only possible option to end the civil conflict and preserve the integrity of Ukraine,” the expert explained.

Shapovalov also believes that the West will not force Kiev to comply with the agreements, but it will also not allow it to completely withdraw from the Minsk agreements.

“For many years, Russia has convincingly convinced the whole world that Ukraine does not comply with the Minsk agreements, but Western countries ignored this and stated that it was the Russian side that did not adhere to the rules, although the Russian Federation does not have any obligations under the mentioned agreements.

If Ukraine now withdraws from these agreements, then this point of pressure on Russia will disappear, ”the RT interlocutor concluded.