欧盟战略自主如何梦想成真？(热点对话)
1月26日，为缓解当前乌克兰危机，法国、德国、俄罗斯、乌克兰在法国巴黎共同举行“诺曼底模式”四方会谈。四方在会谈后表示，各方应无条件遵守停火协议，并加快推进明斯克协议的实施。此前，法国总统马克龙曾呼吁，各方应共同努力缓和危机，迅速降级矛盾，避免军事冲突。
以乌克兰危机为缩影，近年来，欧盟在安全防务等多领域推进战略自主，但进程艰难坎坷。当前，国际形势复杂变幻，欧盟积极推动战略自主有哪些深层原因？与美国有哪些核心矛盾？前景如何？本期报道邀请3位专家共同探讨。
欧盟推动战略自主有何深层原因？
据路透社报道，法国总统马克龙近日在欧洲议会发表讲话称：“欧洲和美国协作是件好事，但欧洲有必要展开自己的对话。我们必须提出欧洲的联合提案、联合愿景、新的安全与稳定秩序。”马克龙表示，支持欧盟在防务领域拥有自己的“战略自主权”，欧盟必须使自己处于确保“能受到尊重”的地位。
王朔：欧盟一直希望乌克兰成为欧洲面对俄罗斯的安全缓冲区。因此，在乌克兰危机中，避免乌克兰与俄罗斯的正面冲突和直接对抗，是欧洲的底线和共识。但在如何处理与俄罗斯的关系上，欧盟各成员国态度明显不一：波兰等波罗的海周边国家，处在欧洲面对俄罗斯势力的“前线”，对俄罗斯态度强硬，希望美国领导的北约对俄罗斯保持强势；法国、德国、捷克等国虽然与俄罗斯有分歧，但寻求与俄罗斯保持高级别的对话；希腊、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等国距离俄罗斯较远，对俄罗斯“军事威胁”感受并不强烈，希望与俄罗斯维持稳定贸易和合作。欧盟内部对俄态度的差异直接体现在各成员国的具体行动中。此前，立陶宛和拉脱维亚宣布向乌克兰提供“毒刺”防空导弹，爱沙尼亚宣布提供“标枪”反坦克导弹，但德国国防部长兰布雷希特称“提供武器目前无助于化解危机”，且有意阻止爱沙尼亚向乌克兰提供德制武器。
张骥：在乌克兰问题上，美欧的态度存在重要差别。由于乌克兰与欧洲地缘临近，乌克兰危机如若恶化，将对欧洲安全造成较大威胁，因此，欧盟希望尽可能避免乌克兰危机的进一步升级，以法国为代表的部分欧盟国家，希望推动俄罗斯与乌克兰进行对话沟通，促进乌克兰危机缓和。美国为在战略上遏制俄罗斯，向俄罗斯施压，更可能在乌克兰问题上采取激进做法，激化乌克兰与俄罗斯的矛盾。
闫瑾：欧盟战略自主首先是在外交与安全领域提出来的，以加强欧盟独立的安全与防务力量建设。之后扩大为五个领域，包括安全、经济、数字化、气候变化与卫生健康。核心动因是增强欧盟的自主性，使欧盟成为多极世界中独立发挥作用的重要一极，能够在欧洲和世界上有效维护欧洲利益，避免沦为大国博弈的棋子。其目标是在安全上减少对美国和北约的依赖，经济上减少对中国的依赖，实现供应链多元化。概括而言，推动战略自主是欧盟在内外危机综合作用下的选择，包括欧债危机、难民危机、民粹主义等内部危机，欧美分歧、中国的竞争、俄罗斯的“安全威胁”等外部压力。
乌克兰危机是在欧洲发生的欧洲事务，在解决乌克兰危机和处理与俄罗斯关系时，欧盟必须要有自己的声音，发挥欧盟的独立作用，而不能仅仅是听从、追随美国的外交路线。如果欧盟对欧洲自身的安全问题都没有发言权，都没有能力提出自己的主张，那么，在大国博弈竞争日趋激烈的当今世界，欧盟只能被看作跟从美国的“小伙伴”，被美国左右，难以发挥独立一极的作用，这既与欧盟的经济实力地位不相符，也很可能沦为大国博弈的棋子。
在欧盟战略自主问题上，美欧有哪些核心矛盾？
美国《政治报》网站刊文称，多年研究跨大西洋关系的德国马歇尔基金会客座研究员布鲁斯·斯托克斯，最近就北约的状态进行了50多次访谈，结果显示，澳英美联盟和美国从阿富汗仓促撤军引发的争端仍在破坏美欧关系。柏林的一位受访者对斯托克斯说：“围绕‘将重心转向亚洲’产生的焦虑、怀疑和悲观在欧洲各地都很普遍。大家担心这会导致跨大西洋脱钩。”
Zhang Ji: In 2021, the U.S. hastily withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan without fully negotiating with the EU in advance, and the U.S. formed the Australia-UK-U.S. alliance, etc., which further made Europeans feel that the U.S. did not take into account its allies on key issues involving Europe’s core security interests Interests take the initiative to coordinate strategically with Europe.
Deep rifts in EU-US relations spurred the EU to seek strategic autonomy.
In addition, under the current international situation, geopolitics is returning to a certain extent. In the process of the game between China and the United States, Russia and the United States, in order to protect European interests, the EU needs to adjust its role in geopolitics and strengthen the EU as an important party in international affairs. strategic capabilities.
Yan Jin: The differences between Europe and the United States are manifested in many fields: in the field of security and defense, the United States often adopts unilateralism and will use force or threat of force at will.
The EU supports multilateralism, advocates the peaceful settlement of disputes through non-military means such as diplomacy and negotiation, and uses force with caution, so the EU is called a "civil force" or "normative force"; in the treatment of the euro issue, the United States does not want to be a unified European The currency, the euro, is too strong and does not want to see the euro capable of challenging the US dollar's world financial hegemony; in terms of digital construction, the United States has cracked down on Huawei's 5G technology all over the world, including Europe, and some EU countries (such as Germany) are dealing with Huawei's 5G technology. There are different views; on the energy issue, the United States opposes the construction of the "Nord Stream-2" project and does not want to see the in-depth development of energy cooperation between the EU and Russia, while Germany insists on developing energy cooperation with Russia, despite the "North Stream-2" project. The project has been suspended for consideration, but Germany believes that European energy security and energy diversification are inseparable from energy cooperation with Russia; in its China policy, the United States regards China as a strategic competitor and comprehensively suppresses China.
The EU is reluctant to choose sides between China and the United States. The EU-China Strategic Prospects issued by the EU on March 12, 2019, although it regards China as a competitor and institutional rival, emphasizes that China is an indispensable partner.
In short, the core of the differences between the US and the EU is that the US hopes to develop an Atlantic partnership under its leadership. Although the EU attaches great importance to developing relations with the US, it emphasizes the establishment of an equal Atlantic partnership that is in line with EU interests, and at the same time emphasizes strategic autonomy. Uphold "European sovereignty".
王朔：美欧最大的分歧点在于双方利益并非完全一致，在处理国际事务中不可能采取完全相同的策略。美国处理国际事务的出发点在于维护全球霸主地位，掌控全球秩序；欧盟虽然希望享受西方世界的制度红利，但并没有称霸全球的野心，不愿意在大国博弈中选边站队。在目前国际形势下，无论是乌克兰危机还是中东、北非局势，欧盟在处理与自身利益相关的国际事务时，常常“身不由己”，不得不被绑上“美国战车”，不能完全掌握自身命运。而且，美欧之前出现矛盾时，美国往往会毫不犹豫地牺牲欧洲利益，这在阿富汗撤军事件中就表现得尤为露骨。美国习惯把欧洲当作一张牌来打，欧洲不愿意继续充当这样的国际角色，这一核心矛盾促使欧盟不断推进战略自主。
欧盟推进战略自主前景如何？
1月1日起，法国接任欧盟理事会轮值主席国，为期半年。“我们要让内部合作的欧盟成为对外强大、主权完整、决策自由、命运自主的欧盟。”马克龙近日在介绍法国轮任欧盟主席国的工作目标时说。法国《回声报》评论称，主持欧盟理事会的6个月，将是法国“担起欧盟雄心的历史时刻”。马克龙政府的行动计划再次凸显“通过强化欧盟主权来捍卫法国主权的至关重要性”。
闫瑾：法国是“欧洲主权”的倡导者和核心推动者。今年上半年法国担任欧盟轮值主席国，对欧盟推动战略自主进程会有重要影响。法国总统马克龙已经介绍了法国的工作计划，包括推动欧盟防务建设、研究经济议题、应对移民问题等。法国计划于3月主办欧盟特别首脑峰会，讨论相关议题。法国官方明确表示，推动欧盟的战略自主性，是法国担任欧盟轮值主席国期间的重要议题。
然而，推进欧盟战略自主进程实非易事。欧盟成员国对于推进欧盟战略自主的态度是有分歧的，法国、德国等大国积极支持战略自主，波兰、波罗的海国家、罗马尼亚等国则持怀疑态度，害怕欧盟战略自主损害他们与美国的关系，削弱北约对欧洲安全的保护作用。欧盟战略自主遇到的困难，首先是欧盟成员国对于战略自主认识的分歧，如何达成共识、避免分裂，是严峻挑战；其次，战略自主能力建设不足，欧盟的硬实力建设，特别是独立防务力量的发展远远不够，任重道远。第三，美国的态度非常重要。目前美国对于欧盟战略自主的态度比较模糊，如果美国从中作梗，欧盟要发展独立防务阻力会很大。
张骥：欧盟谋求的战略自主是全面的战略自主。一方面，战略自主不仅体现在安全防务领域减少对美国的依赖，也体现在欧元国际化、数字主权、能源问题等多领域，欧盟谋求独立于美国、符合欧洲利益的立场。另一方面，在当前中国影响力不断提升、美国极力巩固全球霸主地位的国际形势下，欧盟不希望成为任何一方的附庸，因此寻求独立自主的外交政策，以增强在国际事务中的影响力和话语权。
然而，美国对欧盟推动战略自主的行动不可能听之任之。一方面，美国可能利用欧盟国家中，如波罗的海国家等国对美国安全保护的依赖，“离间”欧盟内部阵营，影响欧盟推动战略自主的进程。另一方面，在北约已有的安全防务体系下，欧盟目前并没有能力抛开美国建设真正独立的防务体系。可以说，欧盟在安全防务方面对美国的依赖，是欧盟推动战略自主进程受阻的根本性原因。
Wang Shuo: French President Emmanuel Macron has always actively advocated the EU's strategic autonomy. France's holding the EU's rotating presidency is also an important opportunity for him to revitalize France's status as a major power and realize his political ambitions.
However, whether Macron's vision of promoting EU strategic autonomy can be realized depends on many factors.
First, Macron's promotion of the European agenda is affected by the domestic political situation in France. The French presidential election will be held in April. Although polls show that Macron has a slight advantage, it is not a guaranteed victory.
Second, strengthening the "French-German axis" has always been one of Macron's core measures to promote the construction of the EU. However, at present, Germany's three-party coalition-governing federal government has relatively limited governing capacity and is cooperating with France in promoting European integration. It may be discounted, France is limited by its strength, and it is "hard to support" in promoting the process.
Third, it is difficult to form a consensus on promoting the EU's strategic autonomy due to the different interests and needs of EU countries.
Affected by the internal and external contradictions faced by the EU, the strategic self-director has a long way to go, and the EU may not be able to get rid of this embarrassing situation of being controlled by others for a long time.
Our reporter Gao Qiao