中新网北京1月26日电 题：袁征评估中美格局下两岸关系：警惕台湾问题“国际化”新策略
中新网记者 杨程晨
在近年中美战略博弈的大环境下，台湾问题被当做美对华遏制的工具反复利用，民进党当局变本加厉“亲美抗中”，拓展所谓“国际空间”。2021年底，中美两国元首视频会晤时，中方阐明了在台湾问题上的原则立场。展望当前中美格局下的两岸关系，中国社科院美国研究所副所长袁征接受中新网专访，强调台湾拓展“国际空间”实际效果不彰，但需警惕美方“国际化”台湾问题。
中新网记者：对于民进党当局过去一年屡屡尝试突破所谓“国际空间”造成的实际后果，您怎么看？
袁征：多年来，台湾当局一直试图在所谓“国际空间”问题上实现突破，但进展十分有限。在中美竞争上升的环境下，民进党当局似乎看到希望，在实施“亲美抗中”路线时，大力宣传所谓“民主发展”成就，攻击大陆，迎合拜登政府“价值观外交”。美国出于遏制中国需要，也给予台湾更多肯定。
不过，鉴于中国综合国力的上升和对核心利益的坚决维护，美国在台湾问题上颇为忌惮，台湾在拓展“国际空间”方面并没有取得明显的进展，相反还失去所谓“邦交”。既然民进党当局拒绝承认“九二共识”，在“台独”道路上越走越远，那么祖国大陆出手会更加频繁，将坚决封杀台湾的所谓“国际空间”。
中新网记者：我们常说，大陆打击“台独”势力工具箱里的工具有很多，对于民进党当局继续试探突破所谓“国际空间”，我们该如何应对？
袁征：随着大陆日益崛起和国际影响力上升，台湾拓展“国际空间”的道路越走越窄。去年尼加拉瓜同中华人民共和国复交，目前台湾所谓“邦交”仅剩14个，接下去想拓展“国际空间”的努力将会面临巨大阻力。在两岸关系上，我们要坚持“九二共识”，加大对台宣传力度，压制“台独”气焰。在国际上，我们要加强外交斡旋，团结可以团结的力量。
Chinanews.com: It is believed that the Chinese and US leaders had in-depth communication on the Taiwan issue at the video summit on November 16 last year.
How do you view the impact of the summit on the development of cross-strait relations at the current stage?
Yuan Zheng: The video meeting between the two heads of state last November helped to avoid strategic misjudgment.
The two sides have conducted full and in-depth communication and exchanges on the Taiwan issue.
The US side expressed that it does not support "Taiwan independence" and hopes that the Taiwan Strait region will maintain peace and stability.
However, the U.S. dialect was not sincere, and the so-called "U.S.-Taiwan Military Dialogue" was held immediately afterward, and it continued to take negative measures on Taiwan-related issues.
Of course, China must make a firm response.
However, Biden himself once again made a clear commitment not to support "Taiwan independence", which to a certain extent poured cold water on the arrogance of "Taiwan independence".
Chinanews.com reporter: The US made a statement that it did not support "Taiwan independence", and in actual operation it condoned the DPP authorities' "Taiwan independence" adventurous behavior. How should the US view the contradictory words and deeds?
Yuan Zheng: It has not been a year or two for the United States to play the trick of "two Chinas" and "one China, one Taiwan".
On the one hand, the US expresses that it does not support "Taiwan independence", and on the other hand, it condones the adventurous actions of the DPP authorities for "Taiwan independence".
The reason is not complicated. The United States needs to use Taiwan, and at the same time is worried that abandoning the one-China policy will trigger a strong reaction from mainland China.
Taiwan is just a pawn of the United States. The United States condones the "Taiwan independence" forces, and will never tolerate being led by the nose.
Here, the United States will also try its best to grasp the issue of "degree".
Chinanews.com reporter: 2022 is the midterm election of the US Congress. How do you assess the intensity of the Biden administration's "Taiwan card" in the new year?
How do you evaluate the impact of the US factor on cross-strait relations in 2022?
Yuan Zheng: 2022 is the mid-term election year in the United States, and domestic politics will inevitably affect the foreign policy of the United States.
The Biden administration may increase its support for Taiwan and continue to strengthen political, economic, and military security cooperation with Taiwan. Internally, it can ease domestic political pressure and reap political gains, and externally, it will demonstrate its support for Taiwan's "democratic development."
Compared with the previous Trump administration, the Biden team is slightly more rational.
Playing the "Taiwan card" also needs to consider the reaction of the Chinese mainland. The Taiwan issue will be integrated into the entire strategy toward China, so that the Taiwan card can better serve the national interests of the United States and be used by the United States.
Taking this factor into account, the Biden administration will continue to play the "Taiwan card", but the premise is that it does not touch the "red line" set by China as much as possible.
In this way, under normal circumstances, the game between China and the United States will continue, but it will not develop to the point of being out of control.
In 2022, the United States will still use the Taiwan issue to contain and consume mainland China.
At present, the United States has formed a strong consensus on China.
In the context of the congressional midterm elections, the US factor has a negative impact on cross-strait relations and is still the most important external factor.
Chinanews.com reporter: From intervening and stabilizing the "states with diplomatic ties" to supporting Taiwan in setting up a representative office in Lithuania in the name of "Taiwan", what do you think of the specific forms of the US playing the "Taiwan card" recently? Variety?
Can the Taiwan issue, one of the core issues of Sino-US relations, remain stable until the US government changes in 2024?
Yuan Zheng: The United States has realized that it is increasingly powerless and risky to face an increasingly powerful China alone.
Therefore, the Biden administration has adopted a strategy to further "internationalize" the Taiwan issue, aiming to avoid the edge of confrontation with China.
One is to help Taiwan maintain or expand its "international space", publicly or privately pressure third parties, and stabilize the number of "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan.
The second is behind the scenes to encourage Lithuania and other countries to stand on the front line to provoke China, challenge China on Taiwan-related issues, and take advantage of it.
The third is to win over allies and partners to express their views on the Taiwan issue, openly intervene in the Taiwan issue, interfere in China's internal affairs, and divert China's goals.
These new practices will make the further "internationalization" of the Taiwan issue inevitable, which we must be vigilant about.
Generally speaking, the Taiwan issue is expected to remain relatively stable under a Biden presidency.
After all, the Biden team is relatively rational, knows the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, and understands the huge risks and costs of a head-on collision between China and the United States.
However, the Biden administration will strengthen its deterrence against China, increase its frontier military presence, and increase its provocation in the Taiwan Strait.
There is still a lot of uncertainty in the next three years.
Perhaps a more prudent approach is that China and the United States need to strengthen dialogue, manage differences, and build a fence to prevent conflicts.
Chinanews.com reporter: What do you think of Lithuania's recent repetition of Taiwan-related issues?
Yuan Zheng: In the context of the game between China and the United States, the Taiwan issue is facing a more complicated situation.
Some countries are just around the corner, trying to pander to the US and Western camps, and deliberately take advantage of the Taiwan issue, disregarding the commitments made when establishing diplomatic relations with China, and insisting on developing so-called official relations with Taiwan as a "vote certificate" for support and assistance.
Lithuania is one such country.
When the Chinese side took measures, Lithuania felt the pain, only realized the consequences, and made a different statement.
However, Lithuania's position has yet to undergo a major reversal, and it even has the color of a domestic political struggle, which requires further observation.
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