“双碳”变革
访中国工程院院士、清华大学碳中和研究院院长贺克斌
作为世界上最大的能源生产国和消费国，中国的减碳减排行动一直备受关注。日前，《中共中央国务院关于完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》(简称《意见》)发布，明确提出力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和的目标，并制定出“时间表”、“路线图”。1月24日下午，中共中央政治局就努力实现碳达峰碳中和目标进行第三十六次集体学习。中共中央总书记习近平在主持学习时强调，实现碳达峰碳中和，是贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的内在要求，是党中央统筹国内国际两个大局作出的重大战略决策。我们必须深入分析推进碳达峰碳中和工作面临的形势和任务，充分认识实现“双碳”目标的紧迫性和艰巨性，研究需要做好的重点工作，统一思想和认识，扎扎实实把党中央决策部署落到实处。
实现“双碳”目标是一场广泛而深刻的变革，不是轻轻松松就能实现的。我国“双碳”目标的设定有什么科学考量？落实“双碳”目标的行动面临什么重点、难点？将对中国经济社会产生哪些影响？记者采访了中国工程院院士、清华大学碳中和研究院院长贺克斌。
2030、2060节点考虑我国城镇化、工业化进程及全球气候治理要求，“双碳”带来经济社会系统性变革
问：《意见》明确实现“双碳”目标的时间节点为2030年、2060年，请问背后的科学考量是什么？在“十四五”及今后时期，它将为我国经济、社会等带来什么影响？
贺克斌：这两个时间节点的设置考虑我国人口发展、城镇化、工业化进程等方面情况。同时，也是落实全球气候治理的共性要求，顺应世界未来发展新趋势。
Before 2030, Carbon Peak will be goal-oriented to promote my country's high-quality development.
At present, my country is still in the stage of rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.
According to the National Population Development Plan (2016-2030), my country's urbanization level will reach 70% in 2030, and then the trend of change will slow down significantly, and my country's population will also reach its peak.
According to the 2017 Blue Book of Industrialization by the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, my country will fully realize industrialization around 2030.
Before 2060, carbon neutrality will force my country's energy structure, industrial structure and transportation structure to adjust in the direction of continuously enhancing global competitiveness.
Developed countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany achieved carbon peaks in the early and late 1970s, respectively, and the United States in 2007. According to the requirements of the Paris Agreement, they should achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
But these first-to-peak countries are trying to build carbon borders and trade barriers through future technological advantages.
my country's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is not only in line with the relevant requirements of the Paris Agreement for developing countries, but also will play a key role in achieving the goal of global temperature rise control.
At the same time, it will also promote my country to speed up the pace of green transformation and win the initiative in the new global development pattern.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" is the key five years to set the direction, lay the foundation and achieve results in promoting the comprehensive low-carbon transformation.
The "Opinions" clarify the overall requirements and deploy major measures, which are conducive to making the carbon peak time as early as possible and reducing the peak as much as possible, reducing pressure for carbon neutrality, and more conducive to unified understanding and pooling of strength.
Q: General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a broad and profound economic and social systemic change." How to understand the statement of "systemic change"?
He Kebin: I think it can be understood from the following dimensions.
In terms of concept reshaping, in the process of carbon neutrality, the world economic development will change from resource-dependent to technology-dependent.
At present, the global geographical distribution of traditional fossil energy resources is very uneven: the top five countries in coal reserves account for 75% of the world's total coal reserves, the top five in oil reserves account for 62%, and the top five in natural gas reserves account for 64% %.
Relatively speaking, the global distribution of wind and solar resources is relatively uniform. After the utilization rate of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics increases, whoever has the leading new energy technology will be able to effectively utilize more energy and gain the initiative in development.
In terms of value revaluation, the power generation cost of wind power and photovoltaics is comparable to that of thermal power, but the current grid connection cost is still relatively high.
However, with the establishment of the carbon market and the gradual increase in the carbon trading price, the value of wind power will be re-understood.
In addition, as far as wind and light resource-intensive regions are concerned, such as the western region of my country and the countries along the “Belt and Road”, the competitiveness of its long-term development will be improved, which is conducive to solving the problem of unbalanced development.
In terms of industrial restructuring, the traditional power system relies on fossil energy, and the supply and demand model is "supply based on demand". When the electricity consumption on the demand side increases, the power generation load can be increased to meet demand and ensure supply.
In contrast, the new power system relies on new energy sources such as wind and light, and the supply and demand model will be "supply and demand", and demand-side management will be promoted through market mechanisms to adapt to the volatility of wind and solar power generation, which will give birth to new technologies such as virtual power plants. industry.
In addition, traditional "gas stations" will evolve into "energy stations". For example, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Sinopec has planned to build 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations or combined oil and hydrogen stations, 5,000 charging and replacing stations, and 7,000 distributed Photovoltaic power stations, new power systems relying on new energy are worth looking forward to.
In terms of social impact, numerous studies have shown that household consumption accounts for more than 65% of total carbon dioxide emissions, of which travel, residential energy use and food are the main sources.
In the context of "double carbon", the way of life of this generation may undergo fundamental changes.
Achieving the "dual carbon" goal is mainly due to the "three highs and one short", and the feasible emission reduction path will be "five carbons at the same time"
Q: At present, what difficulties is my country facing in implementing the "dual carbon" goal, and what are the solutions?
He Kebin: In order to achieve the goal of "two carbons" in my country, the main difficulty lies in "three highs and one shortness".
First, a high-carbon energy structure.
Whether it is the proportion of fossil energy in total energy consumption or the proportion of coal in fossil energy consumption, my country is the highest, surpassing the United States and other major energy-consuming countries.
Second, the high-carbon industrial structure.
The world-recognized high-carbon and difficult to reduce emission industries (coal, steel, petrochemical, cement, etc.) account for a high proportion of my country's industrial structure.
Third, my country is the largest developing country, and energy consumption in many areas is still increasing.
Fourth, the time is short and the task is heavy.
From carbon peak to carbon neutrality, China has only 30 years, while European and American countries have 40 to 70 years.
应该如何破解？一是调整能源结构，提高风、光、水、核电等零碳能源的占比；二是优化产业结构，淘汰石化行业的落后产能，并采用先进技术装备来改造代替传统产业，提高生产效率；三是科技创新，低碳技术、零碳技术、负碳技术等技术创新是赢得新一轮产业竞争的关键。这也是清华大学成立碳中和研究院的初衷和核心使命担当。
问：实现“双碳”目标的关键在于碳减排，目前我国有哪些可行的减排路径？
贺克斌：减排路径概括起来是“五碳并举”。一是资源增效减碳。达到同样的经济目标，通过节能增效将能源需求尽可能降低，减下来的碳就是资源增效减碳。我国当前消费水平下，能耗每降1%，可减排1亿多吨二氧化碳。
二是能源结构降碳。研发可再生能源发电技术、储能技术等，大幅度提升非化石能源使用比重，尽早建成可再生能源为主的新型电力系统。这是未来减少碳排放的主体措施。
三是地质空间存碳。即通过碳捕集利用和封存(CCUS)技术解决一部分二氧化碳。这是未来新型电力系统中必须保留较小比例化石能源的减碳托底技术。有研究表明，过去十年，CCUS技术在全球范围内大规模部署，年捕获量已经达到约4000万吨，但要实现联合国设定的可持续发展目标，到2070年需要实现56亿吨的年捕获量，需在现有水平上扩大超过100倍。
四是生态系统固碳。通过各种生态环境建设的手段，巩固和增加二氧化碳的碳汇能力。
五是市场机制融碳。通过碳市场机制来推动各类技术得到更合理有效的应用。
推动能源、交通等重点领域深度减排
问：《意见》明确落实“双碳”目标的重点工作，如加快构建清洁低碳安全高效能源体系、推进低碳交通运输体系建设等，如何在能源、交通等重点领域推动深度减排？
贺克斌：能源是社会经济发展的动力，预计到2030年，我国一次能源需求将达到60亿吨标准煤。实现能源行业转型可从三方面考虑：第一，技术助力转型，大力发展清洁替代技术(风光水核、储能、分布式能源)、绿色氢能技术、能源互联技术(5G、特高压)、能效提升、负碳技术(CCUS、BECCS、DACCS)；第二，金融助力转型，持续完善、推动碳定价和碳交易、绿色信贷、绿色债券、环境信息披露、绿色投资、绿色保险、环境权益等交易市场；第三，政策助力转型，落地落实“1+N”政策体系，将碳排放纳入环保评价体系，通过碳税、税收优惠等加强监督管理。
交通领域的碳排放“居于高位”，占全国终端碳排放的15%，过去9年的年均增速在5%以上。推动该领域深度减排的着力点为：从车辆供给和需求侧，减少路上已有交通工具的排放、确保新增车辆的清洁度、减少重型货车的排放、设计和制造零排放车辆；从基础设施上，拓展电动车基础设施网络、发展氢能源；从管理能力上，注重提升运输能效、改善交通运输结构、完善城市规划及标准、优化货运运输方式、发展电动化交通工具等。
问：为实现“双碳”目标，在管理机制、核心技术等方面，我国取得哪些领先的成果？
贺克斌：在市场机制方面，我国从2011年开始陆续在北京、上海、深圳等地试点碳市场。2021年，全国碳市场正式上线交易，这将有力推动传统企业转型升级、碳排放全面降低。
在核心技术方面，我国的新能源发电、储能方面技术目前处于全球先进水平，并较广泛应用。截至2020年底，我国全口径发电装机容量22.0亿千瓦，其中，水电3.7亿千瓦、并网风电2.8亿千瓦、并网太阳能发电2.5亿千瓦、核电4989万千瓦。非化石能源发电装机容量占总装容量的43%。截至2020年底，我国已投运储能项目累计装机容量规模达35.6GW，占全球市场总规模的18.6%。
In addition, my country's advanced high-temperature gas-cooled reactor technology can be developed through the research and development of ultra-high-temperature gas-cooled reactors to produce hydrogen, and application technologies such as hydrogen smelting and hydrogenation can be developed. Related industries achieve extremely low carbon dioxide emissions.
China has the resource advantages and institutional advantages to realize the "dual carbon"
Q: Achieving the "dual carbon" goal is a tough battle. To win this tough battle, what advantages does my country have?
He Kebin: On the one hand, it is the advantage of resources.
my country is rich in water energy resources. The theoretical reserve of river water energy is 691 million kilowatts, which can generate more than 6 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity every year. It is rich in light energy resources, and the total annual radiation is between 80 and 240 kilocalories per square centimeter. Most areas exceed 160 kcal/square centimeter; wind energy resources are abundant. my country has a vast territory and a long coastline. The wind energy density is 100W/m2, and the total wind energy resource reserves are about 1.6×105MW.
Especially in the southeast coast and nearby islands, Inner Mongolia, northwest, north China and other areas, the annual wind speed is above 3m/s for about 4,000 hours, and the annual average wind speed in some areas can reach 6-7m/s or more, which is of great development and utilization value.
Biomass energy resources are abundant, and the potential for converting biomass resources into energy in my country can reach 1 billion tons of standard coal.
On the other hand, institutional advantages are key advantages.
In terms of ecological environment governance, my country has established four basic ecological civilization systems, including the most stringent ecological environmental protection system, efficient resource utilization system, ecological protection and restoration system, and ecological environmental protection responsibility system.
Specific to the "dual carbon" goal, the Party Central Committee established a carbon-peak carbon neutral work leading group to accelerate the organization and establishment of the "1+N" policy system, and to establish a "four pillars and eight pillars" for the implementation of the "dual carbon" goal.
A series of deployments fully reflect my country's institutional advantages of concentrating on major events.
Q: The "Double Carbon" goal is a long-term work. What impact will it have on daily life, industrial production, and international cooperation in the future?
He Kebin: In terms of daily life, first, the disappearance of peak-to-valley electricity prices.
Real-time electricity price changes based on electricity load will replace the peak-to-valley electricity price policy.
Our electricity utility can intelligently choose the most economical time to use electricity.
Second, passenger cars will be charged wirelessly.
In the future, the charging pile will be wired or wirelessly connected to the charging port at the bottom of the car through the ground wire.
As long as the vehicle is parked in the parking space, the charging facility will automatically connect to the car and charge or discharge according to the owner's previous settings.
Third, charging piles and electric vehicles will become the "sponge" of the power grid.
When all parked vehicles are connected to the power grid, these vehicles will form a huge energy storage sponge, absorbing power when the power is sufficient and releasing power when the power is insufficient, providing important support for the real-time balance of supply and demand across the entire power grid.
Fourth, household electricity can choose to buy green electricity.
After the electricity market transaction is fully liberalized, users can independently choose the type of electricity consumption.
Fifth, carbon assets will become the mainstream asset allocation for personal investment.
The investment threshold of carbon assets is very low, the upward trend is strong, and the long-term income expectations are better. Carbon assets may replace the position of real estate and become the next national-level financial management tool.
Sixth, low-carbon consumption will become the next outlet for consumption upgrades.
When all products are marked with carbon footprint labels, people are willing to buy low-carbon products, and businesses will be guided to produce low-carbon products.
In terms of industrial production, the "dual carbon" goal forces industrial transformation and upgrading to improve the quality of economic growth.
It will promote the transformation and upgrading of my country's industrial manufacturing industry, especially the primary manufacturing industry, to green and low-carbon, and more funds, talents and other resources will flow to the research and development of new technologies related to green development.
In terms of international cooperation, international exchange and cooperation will help China develop low-carbon technologies. At the same time, China's low-carbon technologies are widely used around the world, which will help enhance China's soft power and voice in the world's science and technology governance system, and contribute to China's sustainable development, Participate in global ecological governance and provide strong support.
Our reporter Huang Qiuxia Wen Ziyu