China News Service, January 24 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) After three rounds of unhappy negotiations between Russia and the United States, Europe and NATO, the United States has further strengthened its offensive against Russia.
In the past few days, a series of "fire" operations by the United States have escalated the already tense level of tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Could it be that Russia and Ukraine are really on the verge of a "war"?
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden meet in Geneva, Switzerland.
[U.S. "arch fire": withdrawal, military aid, announcements]
"Embassies in Russia have limited capacity to assist U.S. citizens."
On the 23rd local time, the U.S. State Department issued a circular saying that it is recommended not to travel to Russia because U.S. citizens may be "harassed" by Russian security officials and face "arbitrary enforcement" of local laws.
Even the announcement did not forget to smear Russia.
The U.S. side specifically claimed that due to the massing of Russian troops and conducting military exercises, U.S. citizens were discouraged from going to the Russian-Ukrainian border.
The U.S. State Department also ordered the families of diplomats and non-core employees of the U.S. embassy in Ukraine to leave Ukraine, and urged U.S. citizens in Ukraine to consider leaving the country by commercial flights.
Jiang Shixue, a distinguished professor of Shanghai University, pointed out to a reporter from Chinanews.com that according to the past practice of the United States, the move to evacuate the family members and staff of diplomats means that the United States believes that the situation on the border between Russia and Ukraine is indeed tense.
On the other hand, Kiev said that it has received two batches of military aid from the United States.
Including the "Javelin" anti-tank missile system, 180 missiles and front-line ammunition, at least 170 tons of "lethal weapons" have been continuously sent to Ukraine.
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin.
[Russia's "House of Fire": No intention to attack Ukraine, but NATO threatens Russia's security]
Russia has always been furious about the U.S. move.
Russia has repeatedly stressed recently that it has no intention of attacking Ukraine.
The increase in troops is because NATO's activities threaten Russia's border security.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out that the White House and its allies launched a "toxic propaganda war" to portray Russia as "an aggressor and an enemy of European civilization."
On the 24th, the Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom pointed out that the United Kingdom not only followed the United States in supplying arms to Ukraine, but also encouraged Kiev to destroy the Minsk agreement of the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
The routine of the British authorities is "every day accusing Russia of preparing to invade Ukraine 'immediately', trying to play the role of the ideological leader of the 'free world' on this fictitious 'reason' to protect itself from the 'dictator'," the Russian side pointed out.
FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
(front right)
[Ukraine "annoyed": Who will keep me safe? 】
作为苏联时期仅次于俄罗斯的第二大加盟共和国，重工业和海军航母建设基地，苏联解体后，乌克兰不可避免地成为“兵家必争之地”。
30年来，北约成员国不断增加，挤压俄战略空间。普京曾多次要求北约，停止吸纳乌克兰这样的前苏联国家。
江时学分析，一方面，北约东扩已到了危害俄安全的地步。如果北约不对俄承诺不吸纳乌克兰和格鲁吉亚，俄方必然会做出反应。需要判断的是，俄会做出什么样的、多大规模的军事反应。
另一方面，就目前形势而言，北约不急于要吸纳乌克兰。西方这边，主要担心“克里米亚危机”再现，即担心乌东部地区的归属。其实，对于乌克兰这样的国家，最佳的外交选择是保持中立。
17日，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格表态称，北约“永不会同意”从1997年后加入北约国家撤军的俄方提议。
两天后，美总统拜登则说，如果俄仅对乌小规模“入侵”，美国反应会比“全面入侵”来得轻。此言一出，乌总统泽连斯基立即激烈抗议，拜登不得不改口称，假设俄动武，“美国会让莫斯科付出惨重代价”。
孰轻孰重，一目了然。
资料图：一名乌克兰士兵在乌东部顿涅茨克地区的一处战壕。
【谁在“玩火”？战争真会到来吗？】
不过，新加坡《联合早报》认为，俄10万大军驻守乌克兰边境，已具备长驱直入的条件。一旦俄付诸行动，北约是否有效反应，将决定其战略信誉。
拜登政府已公开表示不会派兵协防，因此俄即使攻乌，顶多会遭受更严厉的经济制裁。
乌克兰则不然。江时学对中新网记者指出，假设俄真对乌“动手”，或有几种后果：
一是乌克兰进一步衰落；
二是俄罗斯与西方关系进一步恶化；
三是西方的制裁将使俄罗斯经济发展进一步遭遇困难；
四是对地区局势的和平产生负面影响。
从总体来说，无论是“诈唬”还是真枪实弹，美俄可能都只是为了下一步的战略腾挪做准备。观察人士认为，美国、北约仍在“虚张声势”，通过“极限施压”逼俄有所动作。
最胆战心惊的，还要数乌克兰这样的小国。毕竟，一些“前车之鉴”还未走远。(完)