The position is mostly ceremonial, but it remains prestigious and empowering in times of crisis.
Two elements that could not leave Silvio Berlusconi, three times President of the Council of Ministers, indifferent.
Il Cavaliere
, a time removed from public affairs after his conviction for tax evasion, contests this time for the post of President of the Italian Republic.
The 85-year-old billionaire has long dreamed of a seven-year term under the gold of the Quirinal Palace, even if observers doubt that he has the necessary votes.
Parliament meets on Monday for a vote by secret ballot, a voting method conducive to twists and turns.
And if the current Prime Minister Mario Draghi is the favorite, behind the scenes are agitated by intense negotiations.
“It is a key and very complicated election, because the political parties are weak, they are in a state of total fragmentation”, explains Giovanni Orsina, director of the Luiss School of Government in Rome.
Government instability
Italy needs stability more than ever: the parties belonging to the disparate coalition supporting Draghi are already in battle order for next year's legislative elections. And the chaos could endanger the music of the Italian steering wheel of the post-Covid European recovery plan. However, the President of the Republic can dissolve Parliament, choose the Prime Minister or refuse mandates to fragile coalitions. What make the position more attractive than usual given the political context.
But the election of Mario Draghi would leave his current position vacant at a very delicate moment.
International investors fear that debt-ridden Italy will fall behind on a tight reform timetable if he steps down as prime minister.
Most experts believe, however, that he would be better placed as president to ensure political stability and good relations with Brussels, especially if the right and the far right win the elections scheduled for 2023.
A game of musical chairs
It is also far from certain that he would be able to continue to pursue the reforms if he remained in place. And he risks losing his job anyway in the next legislative elections. “It's a pre-election year. Even if Draghi remained Prime Minister, the truth is that he would find it difficult to control the political situation”, with the political parties engaged in one-upmanship in view of the legislative elections, according to Giovani Orsina.
A possible solution would be to appoint as Prime Minister the dean of the current government, Renato Brunetta, 71, a member of Berlusconi's Forza Italia (right) party, the leaders of the main parties in the coalition then occupying the most important ministerial posts until in the elections. If Mario Draghi remains Prime Minister, many other names are circulating for the post of Head of State, in particular those of the European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, the former Socialist Prime Minister Giuliano Amato or the Minister of Justice Marta Cartabia, who would be the first female president.
But that's not counting the unofficial candidacy of Silvio Berlusconi.
The founder of Fininvest and Mediaset was the most aggressive in his campaign, going so far as to brag about his sulfurous “bunga bunga” parties.
A thousand senators, deputies and regional representatives will begin voting on Monday, in a very complex process.
To be elected, two-thirds of the votes are needed in the first three rounds, then an absolute majority in the following rounds.
Due to Covid security measures, each round will take one day and, as tradition dictates, there are theoretically no official candidates.
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