There is one thing Putin can always count on: Western mistakes.
While one in Washington, Brussels or Berlin can only speculate about the decision-making processes in the Kremlin, the American President has now, with great frankness, revealed the status of the discussion in the Western alliance.
In a press conference, which will be evaluated in Moscow for every nuance, no matter how small, Biden explained that the response to a smaller incursion in Ukraine would be different than that to a larger incursion.
He did not say exactly where the dividing line would run, but he did report frankly that there was disagreement in NATO on this point.
One can roughly imagine which allies would like to impose only minor sanctions, perhaps even no sanctions at all, in the event of minor border violations (however defined).
In foreign policy, it goes without saying that sanctions must be proportionate. With Putin, however, we are dealing with a master of hybrid warfare who has already outplayed the West with covert incursions in Ukraine.
The attempt at damage control made by the White House spokeswoman does not change the fact that Putin now knows which route he would have to take to Ukraine in order to at least split NATO.
He didn't even need spies in Brussels for that.