US President Joe Biden is facing a difficult situation.
In the first year since taking office, "disapproval" has exceeded "support" in opinion polls, making it the second lowest among all postwar presidents after former president Trump.
Why should he have won the prize by appealing to fill the division of society by selling his wealth of political experience?
And what is the possibility of Mr. Trump's resurrection?
I will explain in detail.
(Washington Bureau Chief, Yu Takagi)
What is the public's evaluation of President Biden in the first year of the administration?
It is a fairly strict evaluation.
According to the American political information site "Real Clear Politics", the percentage of people who answered "support" in the opinion poll was in the 50% range when the administration was inaugurated in January last year. It has plummeted since last summer, half a year later, and is currently in the low 40% range.
Last summer, when the approval rating plummeted, the Islamist Taliban regained power as the US troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan, which coincided with the time when the local turmoil broke out.
Terrorism, which killed many people, including 13 US soldiers, has also raised criticism of the Biden administration's response.
In one poll, President Biden's approval rating is second only to former President Trump among all presidents.
According to research firm Gallup, President Biden's approval rating this month is 40%.
Compared to one year after the inauguration of successive presidents after World War II, only Mr. Trump is below President Biden (38%).
Mr. Trump has gained tremendous support from his own camp (conservatives) by criticizing the opposing Democrats and liberals.
Considering that Mr. Biden was inaugurated by calling on the people to "Unity" widely beyond the factions, it can be said that he has not received any points from the people.
Why is President Biden's approval rating so low?
One of the major causes is inflation, which is hitting American households directly.
Inflation has become a global problem, but in the United States last month (December), the consumer price index rose 7% from a year ago, hitting a record high for the first time in about 39 years.
Inflation isn't the fault of the president alone, but when he visits voters this month in the eastern states that have been the key to winning and losing in the presidential elections, many complain about inflation. I was talking about it.
"Everything is going up. In my case, I have more income than before, but I need more
money to live. I want President Biden to put an end to inflation anyway."
The rapid spread of infection by the new coronavirus, the Omicron strain, has further increased the dissatisfaction of the American people, which is one of the causes of the low approval rating.
Wasn't the wealth of political experience the selling point?
What is your evaluation of your skill?
What has become prominent here is "undecidable politics" and public dissatisfaction with it.
For many years, Senator over the infrastructure investment law (= improving aging roads and bridges, strengthening communications and power networks, etc.), which amounted to 110 trillion yen in Japanese yen passed by the US Congress last November. The skill of President Biden, who has a wide network of contacts in Congress, was demonstrated.
However, a large expenditure bill that incorporates signboard policies such as making nursery schools free of charge has not yet been realized.
In the Senate, the ruling and opposition parties are in a strong position, so if even one opposition from the ruling party or the Democratic Party comes out, it will be difficult to pass the bill. The confrontation between the members of the Diet has intensified, and the situation where the bill cannot be passed continues.
In this situation, some have questioned President Biden's leadership.
What are the perceptions of voters who supported President Biden in the presidential election?
President Biden continues to receive high support from the ruling and Democratic supporters, but the support of independents is conspicuous.
In Gallup polls, nonpartisan support dropped from 61% last January to 33% this month.
Many nonpartisan people voted for President Biden in the last presidential election for the negative reason that "I just want to prevent Mr. Trump's reelection."
The separation of these people is a major factor in President Biden's unpopularity.
Many believe that President Biden has betrayed his hopes that he will improve the serious social divisions and livelihoods.
Is it possible that President Biden's approval rating will recover?
Of course there is a possibility.
The unemployment rate in the United States last month (December) was as low as 3% for the first time in about two years.
In addition, wages are on the rise, and the employment environment is improving for middle- and low-income earners.
Therefore, as long as inflation and the spread of the new corona infection subside, it is quite possible that the approval rating will recover in combination with the economic upturn.
In American politics, the “tide” often changes instantly, so we need to look at it without prejudice.
On the other hand, if the approval rating does not recover, it will be a national referee for the administration, and there is a possibility that the ruling party and the Democratic Party will be retaken by the Republican Party in both the House and Senate in the midterm elections of the federal parliament in November. I have.
If that happens, the government may become a lame duck and the ability to implement policies may be weakened.
What is former President Trump doing now?
Mr. Trump held a large rally on the 15th of this month, calling for the opposition and Republican seats to be regained in the midterm elections, which is also the prelude to the presidential election.
Based on these words and actions and the remarks of my aides, I think I would like to run for the next presidential election in 2024.
However, whether or not you can really run for the presidential election is another matter.
In the United States, investigations into Mr. Trump's involvement with the incident of Mr. Trump's supporters breaking into Congress last January are ongoing, and depending on the results, criticism of Mr. Trump may increase.
It also depends on what happens to the candidates Trump recommends in the midterm elections.
With the huge amount of money needed for the presidential election, Mr. Trump is expected to make the final decision based on the results of the midterm elections.
Is Mr. Trump still popular?
It is still overwhelmingly popular among opposition and Republican supporters.
In a poll conducted this month by the well-established opinion poll, Kinipiak University, 69% of respondents said they "want" to run for Republican support.
It's down 9 points from 78% as of October last year, but it's still high.
On the other hand, in the same survey of all, not just supporters, 33% said they "want" to run for president again, and 59 said they didn't. %was.
Will these people's ideas change in the future?
Keep an eye on Mr. Trump's trends.
Is the Biden administration inward?
What is the impact on the world?
As the United States is in the year of elections, domestic politics will become more important to President Biden.
If you don't get results, you'll lose the midterm elections, making it harder to implement policies and potentially affecting the future of the next presidential election.
On the other hand, the Biden administration's stance of emphasizing the Indo-Pacific region with China, which is becoming more and more military and politically influential, remains unchanged, and the importance of Japan as an ally to the United States remains unchanged. ..
On top of that, President Biden seems to want to maintain a stable relationship with China and other countries, given that this is the year of the election.