Waiting for the "deal"... Will Netanyahu's resignation storm the Israeli political scene?

Occupied Jerusalem -

The Israeli political scene is witnessing a state of uncertainty, with the possibility of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaching a deal with the Public Prosecution Office regarding the corruption files he is accused of, which threatens to remove him from the political scene.

A state of silent tension prevails in the heterogeneous coalition in the "government of change", headed by Naftali Bennett and his deputy, Yair Lapid, waiting for Netanyahu to decide whether to accept or reject the "deal of the claim", a decision that will rock the political scene if Netanyahu leaves or decides to remain in the leadership of the Likud Party. .

Netanyahu is racing against time to conclude a deal during the term of the current attorney general (Al-Jazeera)

A deal that includes a reduced penalty

Netanyahu is racing against time to resolve his position before the end of the term of attorney general, Avichai Mandelblit, at the end of January. It includes a lenient sentence.

According to the proposal submitted by his lawyer to the attorney general, Netanyahu will plead guilty to the charges of fraud and breach of trust, provided that he is not accused of bribery, that all other charges be expunged, that he resign from the Knesset, that his sentence of public service be 3 months, and that the "stigma" is removed.

And the Israeli media reported that there are understandings on various items except to cancel the “stigma”, and Mandelblit is sticking to a deal that includes “stigma” and Netanyahu’s relinquishment of political life for 7 years, a proposal that made Netanyahu hesitate to accept the deal, but the possibility of granting him amnesty from the Israeli president , Isaac Herzog, may make him accept the deal in the future to circumvent the "stigma".

It is estimated that Netanyahu’s absence and his relinquishment from the political scene may make the right-wing parties in the government, especially the movements and alliances founded by figures who split from the Likud because of Netanyahu, prefer forming a new government with the Likud or the Haredi parties (religious Jews), and there is a consensus that no one has any interest in In the opposition nor the coalition to go to new elections.

Analysts unanimously agree that Netanyahu's absence will undermine the coalition of Bennett and Lapid's government, which is composed of right-wing, center and left-Zionist parties, and is supported by the United Arab List.

Muhammad Majadleh: Netanyahu's resignation will open the door to the political game wide (Al-Jazeera)

Netanyahu's new convictions

Political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Muhammad Majadleh, believes that Netanyahu’s stepping down and his departure will open the door to the political game wide, whether on the heterogeneous government of Bennett and Lapid, or within the Likud and the right-wing camp. It will also have regional repercussions on everything related to normalization, the Iranian nuclear file, and Israeli-American relations. , Which files were the focus of Netanyahu.

Majadleh explains to Al Jazeera Net that all indications show Netanyahu's tendency to conclude a deal with the prosecution, and get out of the dock, even if the price is to step down from the political scene until a pardon is obtained from the Israeli president, ruling out that Netanyahu would easily give up his position in the Likud, which is what It portends internal conflicts in the effort to oust him from the Likud presidency.

The analyst attributes Netanyahu’s tendency to conclude a deal with the Public Prosecution Office to his fears of the new attorney general, who will be appointed by his archenemy, Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar, as he will not be tolerant of him, and may not accept the deal at all, and will insist on continuing Netanyahu’s trial.

Majadleh says that Netanyahu has strengthened his conviction that the heterogeneous Bennett and Lapid government is stable despite its fragility, and has continued for at least two years, and this is with the intensification of the hidden struggle against him in the Likud and the rising voices accusing him of paralyzing the ability of the Likud to form a right-wing government because of his stay in the political scene in a way that preserves the government bloc current.

Israeli journalist Yoav Stern rules out going to elections and expects the formation of a new government (Al-Jazeera)

Changes in the government coalition

Israeli journalist Yoav Stern adopts the same opinion, and believes that Netanyahu is looking at the last minute for a solution, albeit partial, to remove him from the dock or actual prison, according to the charges against him of corruption, bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

Stern confirmed to Al Jazeera Net that Netanyahu, who is heading to the deal, despite his hesitation, is convinced that the attorney general, whose term will expire at the end of this month, will be lenient with him, and will conclude a deal within days compared to any legal advisor appointed by the Bennett government, who would refuse to close the files He recommends the continuation of Netanyahu's trial.

Regarding the repercussions of Netanyahu’s stepping down, Stern believes that this will affect the Israeli political scene through new alliances and blocs within the right-wing camp, as it establishes a new era in the Likud away from Netanyahu’s influence with the election of his successor, and will also reflect on the current government, which may be heading to bring about a change in its coalition composition.

But Stern rules out that Israel will go to new elections for the Knesset, and believes that it is possible to form a new government without the need for elections, knowing that Netanyahu's survival is the greatest guarantee for the stability and survival of the Bennett government.

Alliances and elections

In an attempt to demonstrate the strength of his government, Bennett raised the possibility of his coalition collapsing if Netanyahu reached a deal with the Public Prosecution Office, saying, "You have to rest assured, the government of Israel will continue to work for the sake of the citizens."

Despite Bennett's assurances, voices in the government coalition do not rule out the possibility of changes if Netanyahu steps down. MK Shiran Haskell, of the "New Hope" party that split from Likud because of Netanyahu, said that "if he leaves, everything will be open." If someone replaces Netanyahu as party leader, he will most likely be able to form a government."

The same position was expressed by the head of the Yisrael Beitenu party and Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman, telling Israel's Channel 12 that "Netanyahu's departure from public life, even temporarily, means the big explosion of the Israeli political map."

Lieberman, who for many years served as Netanyahu's chief of staff, said that "developments regarding the deal and Netanyahu's absence from politics put us before different scenarios and possibilities, such that internal elections in the Likud to elect a new president will take a few months, during which the current government's term will continue."

Despite the estimates that the most realistic scenario is the formation of a new government, Lieberman does not rule out elections, and hinted at the possibility of uniting the “Yamina” parties headed by Bennett and “New Hope” headed by Sa’ar, the Yisrael Beiteinu party headed by him and figures from the Likud party. Within one list running in the upcoming Knesset elections.