Covid-19 in France: is the worst-case scenario really moving away?

Queue in front of a mobile Covid screening center, in Paris, December 31, 2021. REUTERS - CHRISTIAN HARTMANN

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278,129 new contaminations recorded this Sunday, January 16 in France.

An indicator still very high, but falling.

The country would therefore be crossing the peak of the fifth wave, but this still needs to be confirmed.

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This had not happened for more than three months: the number of Covid-19 contaminations in France is decreasing from one week to the next.

However, these figures are difficult to interpret.

Due in part to changes in

, fewer tests were carried out last week than in previous ones.

One thing is still certain: the very strong progression of the Omicron wave has been halted, but it is impossible to say for the moment whether it is a slight drop, a plateau or even a low rise.

Only the next few days will bring an answer. 

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We expect a rapid decline

If the decline is confirmed, it should in any case be rapid.

This is what is observed in all the countries that have passed this stage.

The number of contaminations should therefore greatly decrease in the days and weeks to come.

However, hospital pressure will still be just as high for some time because of the two to three week lag between contamination and possible hospitalization.

The peak in hospitals should then take place rather in February.

► To read also: France: the vaccine pass definitively adopted by the Parliament

Return of the mask to Paris

While the peak of the epidemic was reached a few days ago in the Paris region, and the situation is improving overall, wearing a mask is again compulsory in Paris and Île-de-France. Imposed by a prefectural decree, the measure had been suspended last Wednesday by the administrative court of Versailles, then last Thursday by that of Paris. They considered that the obligation to wear a mask was an excessive, disproportionate and inappropriate interference with individual freedom. 

The Paris police chief modified the text, as did the other departments of the Île-de-France region.

Wearing a mask is again compulsory, but only in places where the density of the population does not guarantee, without this, respect for barrier gestures.

In other words, as soon as there are more than ten people, whether near public transport, schools, shops or of course, tourist sites.

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