Beirut-
Questions revolve in Lebanon about the sudden development of the duo (Hezbollah and Amal Movement) announcing their return to the Council of Ministers, after 3 months of disrupting the sessions due to the abstention of their ministers from attending as a pressure tool in their demand for the dismissal of the judicial investigator in the explosion of the Beirut port, Judge Tariq Al-Bitar, and the subsequent events Bloody Tayouneh, mid-October 2021.
Analysts describe the move as “regressive,” which was engineered between 3 poles: President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and the Shiite duo, without linking it to a basket of integrated settlements, especially since Al-Bitar is still in charge of the investigations file, and has not retracted his allegations against former MPs and ministers, some of whom belong to the movement. Hope and its allies.
The duo’s announcement was quickly reflected in the improvement in the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar, and it became below 25,000, in a cumulative improvement recorded in recent days, after its value exceeded 33,000 per dollar.
Mikati welcomed the announcement of the duo, Hezbollah and Amal Movement, to return and said that he would call for a session as soon as he received the draft budget (Al-Jazeera)
When does the government meet?
Hezbollah and the Amal movement linked their return to seeking to approve the state’s general budget for 2022, and to discuss the economic recovery plan. Mikati welcomed it, declaring that he would call for a government session as soon as he received the budget bill from the Ministry of Finance.
Here, Mikati's economic advisor, MP Nicolas Nahas, explains to Al Jazeera Net that the return of the government's meeting is a result of urgent priorities, stressing that Mikati is currently taming the contract, and he will call for a session after completing the budget, which may take a week or 10 days to come.
This link angered President Aoun's political team, as Walid Al-Ashkar, a member of the Free Patriotic Movement's political bureau (headed by Gibran Bassil), indicated that they welcome this return with caution, given its link to the completion of the draft budget.
Al-Ashqar mentioned that Finance Minister Youssef Khalil is politically affiliated with the duo of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah, which prompted him to question Mikati's position as well, even though the announcement of return was formal and without many obstacles.
He also told Al Jazeera Net that there are urgent economic issues and bills that are not related to the budget, and that call for an immediate call for a government session instead of continuing with unjustified procrastination.
What are the reasons for announcing the return to the government table?
Writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi (close to Hezbollah) links the duo's announcement to a series of recent developments in Lebanon that necessitated a tactical retreat, namely:
Attempts to complete political deals have failed more than once, the latest of which is Hezbollah's inability to resolve the conflict between its two allies, the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, specifically at the stage of their intense disagreement over the challenge to the electoral law.
An open confrontation led personally by the Secretary-General of this party, Hassan Nasrallah, against Saudi Arabia, which intensified in his last speech, as part of a new approach he adopted by not passing any Saudi position against him without a parallel response.
The dollar crossed the threshold of 33 thousand pounds, sensing the size of popular and living pressure.
The failure of President Aoun's call for dialogue, and the emergency tension between Hezbollah and Mikati, after the latter responded to Nasrallah's speech in defense of Saudi Arabia.
Bazzi links the return of Hezbollah and Amal to the government with a series of developments and pressures on the Lebanese (Al-Jazeera)
Accordingly, a mutual desire was born between the duo, Aoun and Mikati, to curb tensions, according to Bazzi's estimates, and efforts arose between them last week, which rearranged priorities and set the pace of differences.
Bazzi told Al Jazeera Net that the duo took a bold "regressive step" in the theoretical sense, entitled to provide positive conditions to relieve pressure on people.
The analyst explains that the duo decided to change their strategy by confronting Judge Al-Bitar by liberating and paralyzing the government as a means of pressure, and searching for mechanisms to confront him in the judicial and parliamentary authorities.
For his part, writer and political analyst Daoud Ramal believes that the essence of the duo’s decline is their fear of facing popular anger and the repercussions of the collapse of the lira, in addition to facing the challenge of the President of the Republic’s inability to sign, constitutionally, exceptional approvals, in the presence of an existing government that is not resigned.
Ramal told Al Jazeera Net that the duo had reached a dead end in the face of allies of political opponents and a growing popular situation, which prompted him to encapsulate the decision to return by approving the budget and the recovery plan, which constitute the way to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund.
On the fate of Al-Bitar, Ramal talks about data about the possibility of Berri alerting Parliament Speaker and the Amal movement to call for a legislative session soon, to raise the issue of forming a committee that would activate the Parliament’s trial of presidents and ministers, and find a legislative solution to the dispute over Al-Bitar.
Attention is directed to the Free Patriotic Movement and its leader, Basil, who needs an ally to support him in the upcoming electoral battle (Al-Jazeera)
Pre-election stage
Observers find that the duo's step, and what is accompanying it, reflect an effort by the political forces to cut the stage before the May 2022 elections, with the least possible losses, given their sensitivity to the difficulty of challenges and the formation of political and popular alliances.
Attention is drawn to the repercussions of the move on the position of various forces, specifically the Free Patriotic Movement, after its relationship with its only ally, Hezbollah, was shaken, and differences with the Amal movement erupted.
While the party needs its Christian ally to face challenges internally and regionally.
The team of the current leader, Gebran Bassil, also needs an ally to support him in facing his electoral dangers in the Christian street, and to save the last months of the presidency of the republic before the presidential elections in October 2022.
Therefore, Bazzi finds that the duo's position seriously establishes trust between stakeholders, and has to do with the government's productivity and liquidity and more realistic relations with alliances and elections.
But he refuses to link the retreat to external data, "because the results of the Iranian-American and Saudi-Iranian negotiations are open to various possibilities."
Ramal returns to point out that Hezbollah is making "extraordinary, invisible" efforts to settle differences between its allies, in preparation for the formation of joint electoral lists that provide them with a parliamentary majority.
But these efforts, in his opinion, will not help Aoun in recent months, after he was overwhelmed by time and years of systematic destruction of his reign.
In parallel, Al-Ashqar says, "If the intentions of return are true, it may be reflected in the crystallization of an economic recovery plan that will allow President Aoun to achieve positive results by the end of his term."
As for the election, Al-Ashqar confirms that Bassil's team will not have any relationship with the Amal movement, pointing out that not all impurities have been removed in the relationship with Hezbollah.
He says that their team does not find Hezbollah's return to the government sufficient, and their problem with it is greater than that, according to the rule, "Our priority is to fight corruption and build the state, while the party's priority is to preserve the privacy of the Shiite community and to provide cover for the Amal movement."
Al-Ashqar points out that Basil's team, until this date, may run in the elections alone, unless Hezbollah re-reads a set of conditions that are compatible with its current.
Here, Ramal says that all the traditional parties are almost losing from attempts to patch up disastrous mistakes "while they are waiting for regional settlements and their repercussions on their positions, roles, accounts and alliances."