A few days after losing the elections at the end of September, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) made its way into the opposition.

She hasn't quite got there yet.

This is shown by unresolved leadership issues, restless fidgeting between fundamental criticism and professional paleness, as well as personnel disputes down to the parliamentary speaker level. A look at the annual political calendar also suggests that the party is in trouble after Angela Merkel’s resignation and the rapid failure of both of them successor in the party presidency could go further downhill.

Peter Carstens

Political correspondent in Berlin

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However, there is also a chance of turning the upcoming elections into milestones of a comeback.

The CDU is currently at around 23 percent in nationwide polls, which is still slightly below its election result from the federal election.

The decision of the members in favor of Friedrich Merz as the future party chairman has not yet had any visible effect.

Difficult starting position on the Saar

Merz is to be elected to office at a virtual party conference on January 22nd.

He will then have little time with the new General Secretary Mario Czaja and his nominated deputy Christina Stumpp until the first and double test two months later.

A state election is scheduled for March 27 in Saarland.

The incumbent Prime Minister Tobias Hans has to face the electoral vote for the first time after taking over the office from Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who switched to federal politics after an impressive election victory in her home country. The starting position for Hans is difficult. In polls, he is a long way from the 40.7 percent of his predecessor at the time, and the SPD has a relatively clear lead over the Saar-CDU. But for this, as well as the following elections applies: Surveys should be viewed with caution, a lot can change in the last few days.

In the following week at the latest, what is probably the most important internal party personnel decision of the year will be made. It affects the presidency of the severely decimated Union faction in the Bundestag. Immediately after the federal election, Ralph Brinkhaus was able to assert himself against the failed chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, albeit for a period of six months. Whether Merz is striving for the parliamentary group chairmanship, whether Brinkhaus would compete against Merz at all, that will set the course for cooperation in the party and parliamentary group, but also for the future orientation of the CDU.

Two state elections then follow in May, in which the Christian Democratic prime ministers either retain or lose their offices.

Daniel Günther, who leads a coalition with the Greens and the FDP in Kiel, is trying to hold his ground in Schleswig-Holstein.

Like his Saar colleague Hans, Günther is currently far behind the SPD in polls.

Although his coalition still has a majority, it is likely that if the CDU were severely defeated on May 8, the coalition would also come to an end.

NRW: The most important election of the year

That would be bitter for the CDU and a bad omen for the most important vote of the year, the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia a week later. After the resignation of the initially successful Prime Minister Armin Laschet, a cabinet led by the former Transport Minister Hendrik Wüst rules in Düsseldorf. Behind Wüst, connections continue to break down in the busiest federal state, a main traffic artery in the state has just been closed indefinitely due to a bridge damage that has been known for a long time. On the other political side, the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia ended its long-standing leadership conflict a few months ago and is now fully relying on parliamentary group leader Thomas Kutschaty, who sees a chance of replacing the CDU-FDP state government, which is in power with a narrow lead.Their two leading figures, Laschet and Christian Lindner, had arranged a lot in personal agreement in addition to the political compromise.

Should the SPD succeed in returning to the state chancellery in Düsseldorf, the worst-case scenario would have been that the Union would have lost three prime ministers within six weeks. Among other things, this would have a strong influence on the majority in the Bundesrat, where the CDU and CSU currently have a say in 48 out of 69 state votes because they sit in the respective state governments. If the CDU were no longer in government in North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, it would also lose influence on six Federal Council votes, in Schleswig-Holstein it would be four and in Saarland three.

If there were also an election defeat in Lower Saxony in October, where the CDU is co-governing under Prime Minister Stephan Weil (SPD), the Union would have greatly reduced its influence on decisions in the state chamber.

Conversely, the party under the leadership of Friedrich Merz could also show in the next few months that it is capable of a focused, rapid new start, defending its previous bastions and subsequently preventing or changing many things through the Bundesrat that would run counter to the Christian Democratic stance.

So the stakes remain high for the longtime ruling party.