“Kyiv wants to take advantage of the situation”: why in Europe and Ukraine they started talking about a new meeting of the “Normandy Four”

Representatives of Germany, Russia, France and Ukraine will soon hold a meeting to prepare contacts in the Normandy format.

This was stated by the Federal Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz.

“We are trying to activate the Normandy format.

The French President and I have tried many times to restart negotiations,” Scholz said after meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

According to him, "negotiators from all four sides will meet soon to conduct preparatory talks."

In turn, French Defense Minister Florence Parly, following an informal meeting of EU defense ministers in French Brest, stressed that Paris and Berlin have a unified position regarding the settlement of the situation in Ukraine.

“We are participants in the Normandy format, we are striving to activate it during this period of acute tension,” TASS quoted her as saying.

Earlier, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian predicted that negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Donbass in the Normandy format could resume in the near future.

“I see signs of a possible resumption (negotiations in the Normandy format. -

),” the minister said in an interview with Agence France-Presse.

In his opinion, the dialogue may resume soon - this is also indicated by the recent visit of diplomatic advisers from France and Germany to Moscow and Kiev.

Le Drian made a similar statement the day before to the deputies of the International Affairs Committee of the National Assembly, noting that a new meeting in the Normandy format should take place "in the coming days."

“We told Russia that there would be large-scale strategic consequences in response to any new encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” he added.

• French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian

• AP

• © Geert Vanden Wijngaert

Olaf Scholz on January 12 also raised the topic of reanimating the Normandy format.

Then the politician noted that Germany was in favor of using any format, including Normandy, for contacts with Russia.

“We are talking about the Normandy format and the possibilities of implementing the decisions already taken to achieve the necessary progress,” Scholz explained.

Meanwhile, according to experts, such activity of Paris and Berlin in the issue of resuscitation of the Normandy format is primarily due to domestic political factors.

“The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has just come to power, is looking for his first successes in the international arena.

Naturally, he could not miss the opportunity to try to revive the Norman process.

Interestingly, there is little talk about the Minsk agreements now, the emphasis is on the Normandy process, because the motivation in this case is internal political.

And the same can be said about the position of Paris - French politicians are preparing for the elections, ”Andrei Suzdaltsev, deputy dean of the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, explained in a conversation with RT.

Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Institute for Policy Analysis and Management, shares a similar opinion.

“On the eve of the elections, the leadership of France wants to demonstrate foreign policy successes.

Now Germany, France and Ukraine are trying to revive the Normandy negotiating format against the backdrop of Russian-American negotiations, the Russia-NATO dialogue.

Both Paris and Berlin do not want to lose their influence on the world stage, ”the expert noted in an RT comment.

"Unfulfilled Agreements"

Recall that earlier the foreign policy adviser to the German Chancellor Jens Plötner and the diplomatic adviser to the President of France Emmanuel Bonn visited the Ukrainian capital.

During the visit, the parties exchanged views on the prospects for the Normandy format.

Commenting on these negotiations, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced his readiness for new solutions.

“The time has come to substantively agree on ending the conflict, and we are ready for the necessary decisions during the new summit of the leaders of the four countries,” the Ukrainian leader stressed.

In turn, the head of Zelensky's office, Andriy Yermak, said that holding the next summit in the Normandy format "would give a serious impetus to the peace process."

“We expect that the Russian side will support these efforts, and will also contribute to achieving progress in the implementation of the decisions of the Normandy Four summit in Paris,” the Ukrainian official added.

The official website of the President of Ukraine also reports that Kiev provided the representatives of France and Germany with “detailed information on the implementation by the parties of the Minsk agreements and decisions of the last summit in 2019,” however, it is not specified what exactly is being discussed.

Advisor to the head of Zelensky's office, Mikhail Podolyak, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine noted that negotiations at the level of political advisers of the Normandy Four have intensified, which "gives a certain optimism."

According to him, the goal of this whole process is "to really provide the solutions needed for the world," and "a meeting of leaders is necessary to move forward."

Meanwhile, in Russia, the statements of the Ukrainian side about the readiness for the Normandy format summit were called populist, since Kiev would first have to fulfill the previously reached agreements.

“To make statements about holding, expanding, narrowing or inventing new formats, about finalizing or reworking the negotiation processes, without doing basic things and not implementing given promises and assurances, both in writing and orally, is populism,” she said at a briefing on Thursday Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

According to her, the current rhetoric of the Ukrainian authorities regarding the Normandy format is "a distraction from what the Kiev regime is obliged to do."

At the same time, the Kiev regime has everything necessary "to move forward towards a settlement or along the path of a settlement," the diplomat added.

Earlier, the statement of the Ukrainian leader about a possible summit was commented by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.

“The Russian side is also ready to negotiate substantively, but before substantively agreeing, it is necessary to substantively fulfill the existing agreements.

Otherwise, we don’t think that this is the right practice to load new unenforceable agreements on unfulfilled agreements, ”Peskov said.

Although hints of a new summit in the Normandy format remain, so far "there is no understanding on the specific timing of such a meeting," he added.

According to Ruslan Bortnik, now Kiev is trying to restore any format of dialogue on Donbass, because its absence negatively affects the ratings of the current government.

“The failure of a political settlement and the absence of any processes to resolve the conflict in Ukraine does not allow Zelensky and his team to respond to the request for peace, which remains one of the key ones in Ukraine,” the expert explained.

Andrei Suzdaltsev agrees with this assessment.

According to him, Zelensky is rapidly losing popularity, and it will not be easy for him to be re-elected.

“Therefore, the president is looking for any opportunity to somehow advance the process of resolving the conflict in Donbass – naturally, on his own terms.

In fact, he wants Russia to give up its positions under pressure from the US and the EU,” Suzdaltsev added.

"So far there are no prerequisites"

In November 2021, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also spoke about the fact that a new summit in the Normandy format can take place only if Kiev fulfills the Minsk agreements.

He listed the points that the Ukrainian authorities had previously pledged to fulfill.

“First of all, this is the special status of Donbass, the consolidation of this special status in the Constitution of Ukraine, which should include an element of decentralization, as written in the Minsk agreements, these are unconditional amnesties and, of course, this is the holding of elections according to the rules agreed between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk on the basis of OSCE principles,” Lavrov stressed.

Recall that the only summit of leaders of the Normandy format countries since the election of Volodymyr Zelensky as President of Ukraine took place in December 2019.

• December 9, 2019.

  Russian leader Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky during a joint press conference following the Normandy format meeting at the Elysee Palace

• RIA News

• © Alexey Nikolsky

Following the talks, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany then adopted a joint statement on the settlement of the conflict in Donbass.

It spoke about the need to achieve a complete ceasefire by the end of 2019, to carry out the disengagement of weapons, to exchange detainees in the “all for all” format.

The summit participants also agreed on the need to implement the Steinmeier formula into Ukrainian legislation.

Recall that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, formerly head of the German Foreign Ministry, proposed in 2015 a formula according to which a special status for Donbass would be granted on the day of early elections in the region on a temporary basis.

On a permanent basis, the law will enter into force after the OSCE/ODIHR confirms the legitimacy of the vote.

As a result of the summit, Kiev went on an exchange of prisoners with the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass, and at the end of 2019, the disengagement of forces took place on the front lines in the area of ​​the settlements of Zolote and Petrivske.

However, no progress has been observed on the issue of a political settlement.

On the contrary, in Kiev they are increasingly talking about the need to rewrite these agreements.

For example, in November 2020, the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), Leonid Kravchuk, announced Kiev's intention to revise the order in which the points of the Minsk agreements were implemented.

“If we stick to such a sequence, which is provided for by the Minsk agreements, then this actually cannot be done,” Kravchuk said at the time.

According to Ruslan Bortnik, Kiev really wants to rewrite the Minsk agreements, although it is precisely this position that does not allow unfreezing the peace process.

“The steps that could intensify this process are obvious: Kiev must follow the Steinmeier formula.

This commitment was made for Ukraine by Zelensky during the Normandy summit in 2019.

This is the minimum task,” the expert explained.

He also added that rewriting the Minsk agreements is pointless.

“Even if suddenly all parties agreed to this, there is no certainty that Kiev would begin to implement them in an updated form.

Now, in general, we are talking about guarantees of the fulfillment of any agreements in principle.

Over the years, European partners have shown their inability to guarantee the implementation of the Minsk agreements,” the expert stated.

• The line of demarcation in the Donbass

• AP

• © Andriy Dubchak

Andrey Suzdaltsev also notes that the Russian Federation is not against a new summit in the Normandy format, but it does not see a real desire for progress on the part of other participants.

“In the framework of the negotiations between the US and Russia in Geneva and the Russia-NATO summit, the Ukrainian theme was used only for threats.

In turn, Kiev wants to take advantage of the situation to lobby for some concessions from Moscow so that it leaves the Donbass to its fate.

So, there are no prerequisites for holding a summit in the Normandy format so far,” the expert summed up.