Macron's "palace scheming", the situation of the French election subtly affects the relations between major powers
On January 11, local time, in Paris, France, French President Emmanuel Macron met with European Council President Michel.
France will officially take over the rotating presidency of the EU from January 1 for a period of six months.
Photo courtesy of Vision China
A vigorous national parade of 100,000 people kicked off French President Emmanuel Macron's journey to seek re-election.
On January 8, local time, anti-vaccine activists across France organized demonstrations against the Macron government's upcoming "vaccination certificate" to replace the current "health certificate", protesting Macron's vicious remarks to the unvaccinated-" Get them out of here."
With the election coming, why did Macron dare to swear at the public?
Analysts believe that this is not another manifestation of "Macron-style arrogance", but a "conspiracy" carefully planned by him against his competitors.
Analysts believe that the results of the French general election are far more than France's own domestic and foreign affairs; the spread of the left-center-right dispute in French politics from domestic affairs to foreign affairs will also promote changes in the relations between major powers and the international landscape, even if this change is Slow and subtle.
A "dangerous move" before the election
"Freedom", "resistance", "refusal of vaccine certificate", "Macron get out"... For two days in a row, French people who did not vaccinate or wear masks took to the streets of Paris in the winter drizzle, waving slogans and tricolor flags. Flooded towards the Arc de Triomphe.
Amid the chaos, an argument between the crowd and the police escalated into violence. Three police officers were injured and at least 10 people were arrested.
France is one of the European countries most seriously affected by the "tsunami" of the Omikron epidemic. At present, the number of confirmed cases in a single day has exceeded 360,000, hitting a record high in a row.
The French parliament passed the "vaccine certificate" proposal on January 6, intending to further tighten the epidemic control measures and introduce the "vaccine certificate" to replace the "health certificate".
This means that in the past, only a negative nucleic acid test result or a certificate of recovery from COVID-19 could be used to enter and leave public places. After the implementation of the new policy, a full-course vaccination, including booster shots, must be completed before going out legally, whether it is to go to work or go shopping. .
As controversial as the "vaccine certificate" is Macron's remarks.
"For those who have not been vaccinated, I really want to get them out of the way." In an interview with the Parisian newspaper not long ago, Macron said that only a very small number of people in France are still "resisting" the new crown vaccine. These people "Not worthy of being a French citizen"; "I won't send them to jail, I won't force them to get vaccinated, I just want to tell them that from January 15th, you can no longer go to restaurants, coffee, coffee, etc. watch a movie, watch a movie".
The rude and furious statement provided Macron's opponents with a good opportunity to attack.
For a while, everyone in French politics seemed to be blaming Macron, from the left to the right, from moderates to extremists.
The center-right Republican candidate Valerie Peckres said she was angry at Macron's remarks that "you don't deserve to be French without a vaccine". "You have to guide them, unite them, not insult them."
Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen tweeted: "The president shouldn't talk like that, Macron doesn't deserve to be president." Left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the "vaccine certificate" is for personal freedom collective punishment.
However, Macron's "rude words" did not affect his approval rating.
According to a recent survey of 1,500 French by the survey agency Ipsos, Macron temporarily ranked first with 26% of the approval rate, nearly 10 percentage points ahead of the second.
Macron and his opponents
In fact, nearly 90% of those eligible for vaccination in France have been vaccinated, which is one of the highest vaccination rates in Europe. Why does Macron continue to "press" again and again?
Mu Gengyuan, an assistant researcher at the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that this move should be a move in Macron's campaign strategy, even if it may provide a pretext for the opponent's attack and re-incite Raise the public's perception of its "arrogant" image.
French presidential elections are held every five years with two rounds of voting.
If no candidate receives an absolute majority in the first ballot, a second ballot will be held two weeks later between the two candidates with the most votes.
The French general election in 2022 is scheduled for April 10 and 24, less than 100 days from now.
As election day approaches, the infighting among the candidates is also heating up.
Despite Macron's lead, it's too early to say Macron will win.
Left-wing parties operate in their own way, and may not be afraid in this election; but Macron faces a group of right-wing opponents. The support rate of Le Pen, the old opponent in the last election, has been clinging, and Pecres’s support rate Also on par with Le Pen.
What's more, it's not uncommon for election results to not match opinion polls in history, and both "gray rhinos" and "black swans" can happen.
Observers widely believe that Pecres will be Macron's biggest opponent in this year's French election.
Peckres, 54, describes himself as "one-third Thatcher and two-thirds Merkel".
At the beginning of December last year, her approval rating was only 10%, significantly behind Le Pen and another far-right candidate Zemour; by the beginning of January this year, her approval rate rose to 16%, leaving Zemour behind. behind him and pressed Le Pen.
Mu Gengyuan believes that if Macron and Le Pen face off in the second round of the general election, Macron will have a better chance of winning; but if the second round is a confrontation between Macron and Pecres, because Pecres is in the Republican Party With a deeper foundation, Macron will encounter great challenges.
Some polls predict that the approval ratings of Macron and Pecres in the second round of voting will be 53% and 47%, respectively, which is almost the same in numbers.
If Pecques's challenge succeeds, she will become France's first female president.
Analysts believe that by taking a tough stance on the unvaccinated, Macron is actually forcing his opponents to "stand in line" - either to side with Macron and push vaccinations as much as possible, or to stand with the unvaccinated minority aside.
This is a dilemma of political choice.
"For Macron, doing so can not only highlight the Republican Party's swaying stance on the 'vaccine certificate', it will help to show the clarity of his position, and it will weaken the Republican candidate, and it will also show his relationship with the far-right. Opposing positions on this issue can effectively consolidate its voter base." Mu Gengyuan said.
French election affects European foreign policy
The battle between the left and the right in this French election has also spread from the "vaccine certificate" to the EU issue.
Since January 1 this year, France has held the rotating presidency of the EU Council for a period of six months, which is the first time in nearly 14 years.
On New Year's Eve, the blue EU flag consisting of 12 golden five-pointed stars was raised across France, and Parisian landmarks such as the Arc de Triomphe, the Eiffel Tower and the Pantheon were also illuminated in blue.
马克龙的对手们，却抓住这个机会大做文章。勒庞指责说，降下法国国旗行为“冒犯了那些为法国而战的人”；佩克雷斯批评法国政府“抹去了法国人的文化”；泽穆尔表示，这种做法是对法国的“侮辱”。法国“脱欧”运动领袖查尔斯-亨利·加洛瓦说，凯旋门是为纪念在战争中阵亡的法国将士所建，而欧盟中的德国曾与法国作战。当法国政府撤下凯旋门上的欧盟旗帜时，右翼欢呼这是“爱国主义的伟大胜利”。
回顾上届大选，初出茅庐的马克龙在缺乏主要政党支持的背景下，高举“欧盟”大旗，声称要率领法国重新回到国际政治舞台的中心。结果，他在第二轮投票中以65%对35%的优势击败了极右翼竞选人勒庞，成为法国史上最年轻的总统。他匆忙组建的“前进党”，也意外地赢得了那一年的议会选举。
5年后，马克龙再次打出了“欧盟”这张牌。“2022年必然是欧洲的转折之年。”他在新年致辞中雄心勃勃地表示，他将建立一个更强大、更独立自主的欧盟。他呼吁民众相信他的所有承诺，让这个“13年才有一次的机会为法国带来发展进步”。他还将于3月10日至11日参加在巴黎举行的欧洲领导人会晤，商讨欧盟财政改革、最低工资和碳征税等问题。
然而，有迹象表明，近年来法国民众对欧盟的好感在消减。根据调查机构“欧洲晴雨表”近日的一项调查，法国民众对欧盟持正面、中立和负面态度者分别为41%、37%和21%，对欧盟的认可度在受调查的28个欧洲国家中排名倒数第八。
母耕源认为，马克龙主张通过加强欧盟主权来维护和促进国家利益，试图利用担任欧盟轮值主席的机会为连任造势，但仅凭“欧盟”这一张牌并不能为马克龙加分，而要看他如何改革欧盟，看他对欧盟的一系列主张能否达到其抛出的“复兴、显示力量和增强归属感”三大目标。遗憾的是，由于大选的牵制，马克龙只有3个月时间在欧盟轮值主席的位置上施展拳脚，且面临诸多难题。
One of the dilemmas facing Macron now is how to deal with France's relations with China, the United States, Russia, and how to deal with tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
It is clearly remembered that Macron once said that "NATO is brain dead"; in May last year, NATO proposed a $20 billion proposal to "respond to the rise of China" and other challenges, but it was strongly opposed by France. Macron believes that NATO should not regard the developing China as an imaginary enemy, but should clarify its strategic priorities.
Mu Gengyuan believes that France's holding the rotating presidency of the EU is both an opportunity and a challenge to China-EU relations.
On the one hand, France's foreign policy of being an independent and independent major power will enhance the independence of the EU relative to the United States, which is conducive to the stable development of EU-China relations; on the other hand, France advocates a more protective trade policy and an exclusive industrial policy. And the promotion of the Carbon Boundary Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), etc., will pose challenges to China.
In terms of relations with Russia, Macron has always attached importance to the development of relations with Russia since he took office.
During the rotating period, France will continue to promote the development of EU-Russia relations, highlighting the independent status of Europe when EU-Russian relations are constrained by US-Russian relations.
This newspaper, Beijing, January 12th
China Youth Daily, China Youth Daily reporter Hu Wenli Source: China Youth Daily