Crucial negotiations between the United States and Russia begin this Sunday evening in Geneva to avoid a new conflict in Ukraine, on the border of which Moscow has massed thousands of men ...

Ukraine: talks between Washington and Moscow under high tension

A Ukrainian soldier near the separation line of pro-Russian rebels in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, January 7, 2022. AP - Andriy Dubchak

Text by: RFI Follow

3 min

Crucial negotiations between the United States and Russia begin this Sunday evening in Geneva to avoid a new conflict in Ukraine, on the border of which Moscow has massed thousands of men.

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At the opening of

talks between Washington and Moscow

to try to defuse tensions over Ukraine, the tone is far from appeasing.

At least if we are to believe the latest statements from each of the two parties.

Invited on CNN, the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken warned Russia of a risk of "

confrontation and massive consequences

" if it renewed its aggression against Ukraine.

If we go around in circles, if we do not see that the other party is ready to take our priorities into account, then dialogue will be useless

", for its part warned Moscow, through the voice of its Deputy Foreign Minister , Sergei Riabkov.

"No concession"

The number 2 of Russian diplomacy, who will be present this evening in Geneva, added that he will not accept "

any concessions

" during this dialogue.

A reference to the requests already formulated by Moscow: NATO's commitment not to integrate Ukraine, and the withdrawal of American soldiers from the Alliance countries which are closest to Russia.

But neither of these two demands "

are on the

negotiating table", US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday.

The United States is however ready to discuss with Russia missile devices and military exercises of the two countries, according to an official of the White House.

Moscow is also said to be "

disappointed

" by the signals sent to Washington. The Kremlin may have moderately appreciated yesterday's reading of The

New York Times

, which for the first time reported so precisely

what sanctions would be considered by Washington

in the event of an invasion of Ukraine.

The United States could disconnect Russia from the Swift network which facilitates international transactions (see box).

This sanction had been applied to Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and even Iraq, with serious consequences for their economy.

Washington could also ban exports of everyday consumer goods to Russia.

According to information from the American daily, these sanctions would in any case be much more painful than those adopted at the time of the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

A week at high risk

It is through a face-to-face meeting between the Deputy Foreign Ministers of the two rival powers, the American Wendy Sherman and the Russian Sergei Riabkov, that this high-risk diplomatic week begins. It will continue with a NATO-Russia meeting Wednesday in Brussels, then a meeting Thursday in Vienna of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), to include Europeans who fear being marginalized.

The West and Kiev accuse the Russians of having massed nearly 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border with a view to a potential invasion.

The Kremlin, on the contrary, claims that it is the West that provokes Russia by stationing the military at its gates or by arming Ukrainian soldiers who fight pro-Russian separatists in Donbass, in eastern Ukraine.

What is the Swift network, from which Russia could be cut off?

Founded almost 50 years ago near Brussels, Swift is a major network for interbank financial transactions around the world. It is linked to more than 10,000 banks in 200 countries. It is managed by a board of directors made up of 25 members: ten Europeans, six members from the United States, and one from the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Japan, China, between others… The United States cannot therefore exclude Russia from Swift without the approval of the European Union, which should not pose a problem.

If Russia is disconnected from Swift, its public and private companies will no longer be able to transact with foreign countries.

The Russians do have a plan B in the event of sanctions: the Financial Message Transfer System (SPFS), which allows transactions with 400 Russian banks.

To internationalize it, Moscow has planned to partner with the CIPS interbank payment network, based in China, connected to around twenty foreign banks.

But using this device would contradict the American and European sanctions package.

Ukraine: talks between Washington and Moscow under high tension

Ukraine: talks between Washington and Moscow under high tension

"No concession"

A week at high risk

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