A warning from Washington makes it clear how tense the mood is ahead of the first American-Russian meeting since the Moscow-led escalation of the Ukraine crisis: A high-ranking government official said on Saturday that it is firmly assumed that the Russian side will make statements after the meeting on Monday in Geneva, which would not reflect the nature of the talks.

The partners are therefore urged to view such comments with skepticism - a request directed primarily to Kiev, where they are very concerned about any concessions made by the Biden administration.

Majid Sattar

Political correspondent for North America based in Washington.

  • Follow I follow

Friedrich Schmidt

Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS in Moscow.

  • Follow I follow

Both sides have been managing expectations for days: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who traveled to Geneva as a negotiator on Sunday, said it was entirely possible that the discussions would end quickly, after all, they were “disappointed to a certain extent” by the signals who had been questioned from Washington and Brussels in recent days.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concern that Moscow was simply looking for an excuse to invade Ukraine again.

This time it has been made very clear to the Russian side that measures will be taken that have so far been refrained from, said Blinken, who sent his deputy, Wendy Sherman, to Geneva as a negotiator.

In the State Department, with a view to new economic sanctions, it was emphasized that, if the worst comes to the worst, Washington would rely on immediate retaliation rather than gradual escalation.

Otherwise Putin will examine his options

The high-ranking government representative in Washington nevertheless emphasized that the American side was ready to enter into dialogue with a view to the arms control talks. The background to this is the heated debate by Moscow about a security agreement with a view to short- and medium-range missiles after the Trump administration terminated the INF treaty in 2019. One could talk about a mutual limitation of military exercises as well as a mutual limitation of the stationing of missiles. On the other hand, Washington is not ready for talks about the scope of the stationing of American troops in NATO member states. A spokeswoman for the National Security Council rejected a corresponding report by an American television station. Rather, it was made clear to Moscow thatthat in the event of an invasion the eastern flank of the alliance would be strengthened.

In mid-December, Moscow submitted draft treaties for "security guarantees" to the United States and NATO, calling, among other things, to renounce any expansion of the Western alliance and any military activity by NATO in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Ryabkov was adamant. Russia's approach is "pretty tough," he told the Kremlin-loyal newspaper Izvestia. He did not want to name a list of priorities, but emphasized that all demands were "absolutely necessary, indispensable elements", without which one would be forced to establish that the other side was proving to be non-cooperative. It is expected that during the negotiations it will quickly become clear whether "rapid progress" is possible. Ryabkov told the Wall Street Journal that if diplomatic efforts failed,Putin will examine options that his military experts are preparing.

Blinken observes the emergency in Kazakhstan with concern

In the opinion of Andrei Kortunow of the Russian Council for International Affairs, a government-affiliated think tank, this should include steps "that are already seen as tendencies in Russian military policy," an accelerated armament, stationing on Russia's contact line with NATO, one Expansion of military cooperation with Belarus and military activities in the Baltic Sea in the sense of a “standard selection to demonstrate dissatisfaction with NATO”. Kortunov considers the concentration of troops on the border with Ukraine and on the annexed Crimea to be a warning to the government in Kiev not to seek a military solution to the Donbass problem, and in an interview with the FAZ sees the Moscow demands as an attempt to wrestle with them the West "to achieve a breakthrough,based on the idea that small steps do not change the situation and that a larger, more strategic solution is needed ”.

An issue that is not on the agenda in Geneva complicates the situation.

Blinken said he was watching the emergency in Kazakhstan with concern.

There are questions about the request to “organize the collective security treaty”, including the deployment of Russian troops in the country, said the foreign minister, adding smugly: “I think a lesson from recent history is that it is sometimes very difficult is to get rid of the Russians once they're in your house. "