China News Service, January 1st (Kong Qingling, Gan Tian, ​​Zhang Aolin, Guan Na, Meng Xiangjun) In 2022, mankind will continue to face the double test of a century of major changes and the new crown epidemic, from regional hot spots to economic development, from climate change to emerging Science and technology, under the multiple changes triggered by various challenges, where will the international situation go?

On September 18, 2021 local time, hundreds of thousands of white flags were planted on the National Mall in Washington, DC to mourn the deceased of the new crown.

[The spread of the epidemic-prevention and control]

　　In 2021, the new crown virus claimed 3.5 million lives, and the "sorrowful mileage" of the epidemic has repeatedly refreshed.

Now, entering the new year, the prevention and control of the epidemic is still a "big test" before all mankind.

　　At present, with the spread of mutated strains such as Delta and Omi Keron, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has reignited.

Among them, the number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States in a single day is even as high as 700,000.

At the same time, anti-scientific rhetoric emerges endlessly. The accumulation of vaccines in rich Western countries has exacerbated inequality in distribution. Various experiences and lessons have repeatedly reminded that in the face of this century-old major global public health crisis, ignoring science and fighting alone can only get into a dead end. .

　　WHO Director-General Tan Desai pointed out that countries need to establish local production and supply chains as soon as possible. All countries should reach 40% vaccination coverage as soon as possible and achieve the 70% target by mid-2022. This is a global priority.

　　However, Tedros also expressed optimism about ending the most critical stage of the epidemic in 2022.

Persistence in scientific epidemic prevention and demonstration of unity are the keys.

On October 26, 2021, German President Steinmeier officially handed the notice of the end of his term to the then Chancellor Merkel.

[Changes in the political arena-offense and defense]

　　Last year, Biden took office and vowed to "rebuild" the United States, Germany bid farewell to the Merkel era, and Japan ushered in the 101st prime minister.

The face of the political arena has changed, and the future challenges will be more severe.

　　This year, the prospects for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections in the United States are worrisome.

Biden’s support rate continues to fall, conflicts within the Democratic Party have intensified, the epidemic and inflation situation are severe, and the weather vane Virginia election is set back, the Democratic Party may be unable to escape the midterm election "lost" cycle.

James Thurber, a professor of government at the American University, believes that “2022 will be an ugly year full of confrontations, partisan divisions and deadlocks.”

　　Multinational elections add variables.

South Korea’s general election coming in March was “out of focus” ahead of schedule. The two major candidates are deeply mired in scandals, and the future wins or loses are unpredictable.

Experts believe that young South Korean voters have been disillusioned with political parties and can only "take the lesser of two evils."

The French general election in April has sounded the drums of war, and the expansion of the extreme right has sprung up. Le Pen is expected to become a "female president". Can Macron succeed in defending it?

Looking back at Germany, how will the new "traffic light" government reshape the relationship between the "post-Merkel era" and Europe and the world?

Everything remains to be seen.

Data map: NATO held a "Trident Contact" joint military exercise.

[Regional Hot Spots-Crisis and Opportunity]

　　The crisis in Ukraine is "highly hot" and wars are overwhelming. Whether Russia's relations with the United States and the West can get rid of the "Cold War 2.0" label is undoubtedly one of the biggest hot spots in the beginning of the year.

Although the talks will begin, in view of the fierce confrontation between Russia and the United States on NATO's eastward expansion over the years, the prospects for the negotiations are not very optimistic.

Central and Eastern Europe may not escape the fate of local conflicts.

　　In the Indo-Pacific region, the situation is more complicated and sensitive.

With the pressure of the mid-term elections in the United States, the Biden administration will continue to use the "suppress + win" routine in 2022, strengthen the Asia-Pacific alliance system, and step up its containment of China.

However, the US-Australia submarine contract crisis has highlighted the "America first" and reduced the trust of allies in the United States; Southeast Asian countries are unwilling to choose a side station, and it is hard to say how deadly the US "arrow" is shooting at the Indo-Pacific.

　　Turning to the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear issue has been on the negotiating table for nearly a year, but the United States and Iran are still in disagreement on whether to lift sanctions against Iran.

The hurried withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan left a "security vacuum", laying hidden dangers for terrorist backlash.

The Palestinian-Israeli "gunpowder keg" may detonate at any time, the Syrian and Yemen crises are long and tortuous. This year, how the forces in the Middle East will differentiate and evolve, and whether the US strategic contraction can be achieved are all major tests.

The New York Stock Exchange in the United States under the new crown epidemic.

【Economic Development-Rise and Fall】

　　In terms of recovery, what should the global economy continue to "ravaged" by the new crown epidemic?

Goldman Sachs gave an optimistic expectation: In 2022, global GDP may grow by 4.5%; the British think tank Economic and Business Research Center recently predicted that in the new year, the world economy will exceed 100 trillion US dollars for the first time.

　　Overall, the analysis believes that the global economy will recover from the epidemic and gradually transition to a more normal expansion.

However, in the final analysis, whether a recovery can be achieved depends on the trend of the epidemic.

Recently, with the rapid spread of the Omi Keron strain, the negative impact of the epidemic on the economies of the United States and Europe has continued to ferment.

Gopinat, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that it is estimated that the global GDP will lose 5.3 trillion U.S. dollars in the next five years.

　　In addition, multi-level challenges such as tight supply chains and inflation will also make the economic outlook for 2022 full of uncertainties.

Data map: Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan.

[Ecological environment-"clean" and "dirty"]

　　However, like an oasis in the desert, the green economy is becoming a new engine leading the global recovery.

Kunming, China, the United Nations Conference on Biodiversity made new commitments; Glasgow, UK, the Climate Change Conference is leading a new direction. The concepts of low carbon, emission reduction, and new energy are becoming keywords for multinational economic policies.

　　Just how important an environment-friendly economy is, Bai Yating, the representative of the United Nations Development Program in China, said in a sentence after the Kunming Declaration: “Leave aside prosperity, if humans want to survive, they must defend nature.”

　　Some countries are working hard to defend, while others are wantonly destroying.

In April 2021, despite the strong opposition of the international community and the local people, Japan announced plans to discharge one million tons of nuclear sewage from the Fukushima nuclear power plant and initiated the pollutant discharge audit.

Once pollutants are officially started in the spring of 2023 as planned, every corner of the world's oceans will be polluted within ten years.

In 2022, the whole world is watching whether the Japanese side is reining in the precipice or reining in its own way.

On July 8, 2021, the 2021 World Artificial Intelligence Conference opened at the Shanghai World Expo Center.

[Future prospects-Xing and Kao]

　　Although the epidemic has not dissipated, mankind's technological innovation and yearning for the vast universe have never stopped.

Looking up at the starry sky, more and more human imprints are being left there.

In 2022, the Chinese space station will be completed in orbit; a number of technology giants are competing for private space travel services; and as the first step for the United States to "return to the moon", the "Artemis 1" mission will also be launched.

　　Taking a closer look at the earth, information and digital technology are reshaping the way people live and work.

The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers reported that artificial intelligence, cloud computing and 5G technology will become one of the most important technologies that will affect 2022 and beyond.

　　In the era of rapid technological development, while the world enjoys convenience, it also faces various tests.

The United States is pursuing "digital hegemony" and wooing allied groups to develop "small circles." While new things such as meta universe enrich people's imagination, it also faces economic and ethical risks.

In a world where reality and virtuality are more closely integrated, how to find a balance is a challenge given to mankind by the times.

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