Khartoum -
A source close to the office of the Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok confirmed - to Al Jazeera Net - that Hamdok has not yet submitted his resignation from his position, and linked his resignation or continuing in his position to what the developments in the political arena will result in during the coming period.
And there were press reports about Hamdok's resignation and the willingness of his office's members to leave, while observers said that these leaks are just a maneuver in light of the pressures the Prime Minister is facing to implement the agreement he signed with Sovereign Council Chairman Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.
This is not the first time that the political and media circles have circulated the news of Hamdok’s resignation, which was nominated after the December 25 demonstrations. Rather, it was preceded by leaks about his actual resignation and his informing a number of national figures and intellectuals of his intention to do so last week, due to the pressures of the military component, and the lack of compatibility of forces The political agenda was based on a national charter, but he postponed it for days in response to initiatives to solve the crisis.
The months that preceded Al-Burhan’s procedures on October 25 witnessed repeated leaks about Hamdok’s resignation, but it ended with him being placed under house detention after the dissolution of his government and the arrest of a number of its members.
The Sudanese street is witnessing a split over the resignation, which is still in the process of waving, between optimistic about his absence from the political scene and pessimistic about the outcome.
However, the matter does not pertain to the Sudanese street alone, but rather has its external extensions, as the international community is betting on the importance of Hamdok at the head of civil authority. The American envoy to the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, confirmed - last week - Washington's contact with Hamdok.
Feltman said he was disappointed with Hamdok's inability to move forward on many issues that lead to the transition to a civilian government, stressing that he is a very important player, and represents the weight of the civilian side in the transition arrangements.
Close people say that Hamdok (left) is facing pressure from the military component (French)
Seriously resign
In the assessment of political analyst Shawki Abdel Azim - who is close to the cabinet circles - Hamdok is serious about his resignation and informed all concerned parties that he failed to implement the terms of his agreement with Al-Burhan on November 21 last, but he has not submitted it so far.
Abdel Azim attributed - to Al Jazeera Net - Hamdok's failure to bet on the consensus between the various political forces, and their formulation of the political charter stipulated in the agreement between him and the proof, which was about returning to work on the first constitutional document signed in 2019.
The well-informed analyst added that the obstacles that the military component tried to put in front of the man during his executive work, played a major role in his tendency to resign, pointing to the military component’s obstruction of releasing detainees after the Burhan procedures, bringing criminal charges against them, in addition to suppressing protesters and cutting off the Internet, which is What contradicts freedoms, especially since this was one of Hamdok’s justifications for signing the agreement with Al-Burhan to end the political suffocation and prevent bloodshed.
Shawky said that there are many direct and indirect initiatives to discourage Hamdok from resigning, including initiatives from the Forces for Freedom and Change, "however, he did not actually submit his resignation, but he is closer to it."
Supporters and apprehensions
For his part, political analyst Al-Hussein Abu Jannah believes that it is in the interest of improving Sudan's internal conditions that "Hamdok resigns without return."
Abu Jannah told Al Jazeera Net that negative repercussions may arise from the resignation in the context of international and regional pressures that closely monitor the situation, but he considered it "possible repercussions" with little coordination with regional parties, and for the purpose of financing huge investment projects that revive the movement of exports and open up great opportunities for youth employment. .
The United States, the European Group and the World Bank had suspended grants and financial aid that were scheduled for the government of Sudan during the transitional period, after declaring a state of emergency and dissolving the Sovereign Council and the government. Washington froze a $700 million grant to Sudan, and the World Bank suspended $2 billion to support infrastructure projects on over two years.
However, analyst Abu Jannah says that "despite Hamdok's strong return to the forefront of government after agreeing with Al-Burhan, the economic and political conditions, and perhaps security, and foreign relations are still deteriorating and in constant decline.
In his opinion, this counts on Hamdok's personal performance, as he is prime minister for two transitional terms, "but without a tangible effect."
The analyst puts his threat of resignation in the context of "inducing the sympathy of the Sudanese street, forming a positive public opinion in its favour, and putting pressure on the military component."
Demonstrators accused Hamdok of betraying the revolution after his return to power agreement with Al-Burhan, and they renewed their adherence to the civil state (French)
political vacuum
However, Sisi analyst Maher Abu Al-Goukh warned that Hamdok's resignation "will create a political vacuum whose effects are known to those who are angry with him more than those who sympathize with him."
Abu Al-Joukh told Al-Jazeera Net that Hamdok's presence at the helm of power represents a brake on the political, security and external repercussions of the "coup" steps, and that his exit from the scene means the complete control of the "coup" group on matters.
On the one hand, and in the opinion of the analyst, the chances of cooperation with the international community will decline, and the tension in the street will increase the hypothesis of the transition of the peaceful scene to the square of violence in light of the weakness of the central government.
Rather, Hamdok's absence - in his opinion - will lead the country to "conflicts that exhaust the already weak national institutions."
And he warned of the approaching scene of the collapse of the state.
After the resignation
As for the political writer, Siddiq Muhaisi, he talked about several possibilities in the event of Hamdok’s resignation: the first of which is the exposure of the back of the military and the political forces that support them, and this, he believes, will affect Sudan’s foreign relations after the great breakthrough it witnessed following the overthrow of the Omar al-Bashir regime, and Sudan will return to its isolation again .
However, he added that this would not discourage the military from continuing to establish a regime similar to the Sisi regime in Egypt, especially with the Emirati and Egyptian support for them. Situation".
The second possibility - according to Mehesi - is that the resignation will not affect in the short term the political scene if the proof adheres to the constitutional document and completes the transitional period leading to elections at its end, and that he finds sufficient support from the regional and international community to achieve this.
However, the writer believes that the third possibility - the closest to verification - is that the street has a strong leadership and is able to change the equation, especially with the broad protest movement in rejection of the Burhan and Hamdok agreement entirely.
He said that this might lead to the overthrow of the current authority, if the forces opposed to it agreed to address its contradictions and came up with a clear program and mechanisms for after its overthrow.