Tensions are escalating between Russia and the West in many issues and files, such as the crisis in Ukraine and military exercises in the Black Sea, as well as files such as Syria and cyber security, to be joined recently by the issue of rising gas prices in Europe, in light of the controversy surrounding the gas pipeline "Nord Stream 2" in Russia.

The Nord Stream 2 project aims to double the supply of cheap natural gas from Russia to Germany, which the latter sees as a necessary step to help it switch from coal and nuclear energy.

However, the project faces strong opposition from NATO allies and the United States in Eastern Europe, led by Ukraine, which sees the project as a threat to its security and economy.

It is expected that Ukraine's revenues from the transportation of Russian gas through its territory will decrease by 4% of the gross domestic product.

The United States also opposed the project, and the administration of former President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia and companies based on the project, which led to the obstruction of its completion, until it was described as a "huge piece of steel on the seabed."

The previous US administration believes that the Nord Stream 2 project poses a threat to energy security in Europe, and places it hostage to Russian interference and pressure, which threatens the interests of the United States and its allies, and gives the Russians an economic opportunity that may contribute to its ability to bypass US sanctions imposed on it.

This view is currently supported by Republicans in the US Congress.

Senator Ted Cruz has threatened German companies working on the project with sanctions that will "destroy their companies."

He also pledged to submit a draft resolution, next January, to re-impose US sanctions on the "Nord Stream 2" project, which was lifted by the Biden administration, in light of its efforts to improve its relations with Germany and restore the Trump era with Europe and NATO countries.


Challenges facing the project

But the 10 billion-euro ($12 billion) project recently faces a new challenge posed by 3 main factors: the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, the rise in gas prices in light of the increased demand for it in the winter, in addition to the political transformation taking place in Germany under the new government coalition. Which includes in its ranks the Green Party, one of the most prominent opponents of the Russian project.

In this case, the controversy over the Russian project has become intertwined with several files in which the vision of the United States, and with it NATO, is an important factor.

Which puts the project and issues of gas and escalation in Ukraine in the balance of barter between Russia and the West.

For its part, Moscow believes that putting pressure on the "Nord Stream 2" project will show its results in Europe more than in Russia.

These pressures will push Russia to reduce its supplies from the Lahar pipeline to Europe, as Moscow recently reduced its gas exports through the Yamal Europe pipeline, one of the main routes for Russian gas supplies to Europe.

This led to a rise in gas prices, which, if it continues, will affect overall prices in Europe and inflation rates, threatening the political stability of some European countries that are still suffering from the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.


geopolitical project

In this regard, Moscow submitted draft contractual "security guarantees" to it from NATO and America, which would rule out any expansion of the alliance, or any military activity in areas considered by Russia to be its "vital area".

Russian President Vladimir Putin said they hoped to get a "clear and comprehensive answer" and negotiations "within certain deadlines".

He also stressed that it was not an ultimatum.

He added that there was a "risk" that "all our proposals will sink into the mud", blaming the United States for the tension in Europe.

For his part, US President Joe Biden said that economic sanctions will be at the "vanguard of retaliation" if Russia escalates hostilities, as his administration officials want this "retaliation" to take place in cooperation with European allies, which makes German cooperation necessary to target "Nord Stream 2".

"The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a Russian geopolitical project that undermines the energy security and national security of a large part of the Euro-Atlantic community," US Assistant Secretary of State Karen Dunfrid told reporters on Tuesday.

She declined to reveal details of the discussions with Berlin, but declined to say that the two allies work closely together.


Are sanctions effective?

The United States wants to use the sanctions on the "Nord Stream 2" project to put pressure on Russia in the Ukraine file, and is pushing Germany to cancel the project in the event that Moscow takes military action against Ukraine.

A US congressional aide who has seen discussions with Germany says the president's administration wants to ensure assurances that Berlin will not allow the pipeline to run if Moscow invades Ukraine.

The United States believes that Russia is using the gas issue to pressure Europe, especially the largest European economic power (Germany) to impose its conditions in Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general.

On the other hand, the government of the new German Chancellor, Schulze, indicated, just weeks after taking office, that it would continue the agreement reached by his predecessor, former Chancellor Angela Merkel, with Biden last July.

Under this agreement, Germany committed to taking measures to "limit Russia's export capabilities to Europe in the energy sector" or other sectors, if Russia commits "aggressive" actions towards Ukraine.

The reinforcement of an estimated 90,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border has led to fears of an upcoming Russian military attack on Ukraine, which may be imminent or occur within the next few months.

Indeed, the Biden administration has sounded the alarm and is actively working with its European allies to deter Russia and plan a response to a possible invasion, and there appears to be no other rationale for increasing Russian forces.


gas pressure weapon

By raising gas issues and causing price hikes in Europe, the Kremlin is likely to seek to complicate the Ukraine crisis, as Moscow tries, through this unprecedented mobilization, to force the United States to the negotiating table to discuss a broader range of issues, as happened in March when it pushed Similar military buildup to the US president's invitation to his Russian counterpart to attend a summit in Geneva.

This meeting reaffirmed Russia's role as a great power.

It was clearly translated when the Kremlin obtained a high-level summit with Biden via video communication (before China), an agreement to follow up on strategic stability talks, and bilateral participation in a number of different issues.

Biden even declared that Russia was a "worthy adversary."

There is now talk of another personal summit with Putin, perhaps early next year.

Thanks to the current tensions over Ukraine, the two presidents will meet this week.

Issues occupying the West

In light of the United States' preoccupation with issues of internal polarization, addressing the effects of the Corona pandemic, and its great focus in its foreign policy on China, Russia appears more willing to impose new equations on it in its vital field.

All of this supports Europe's preoccupation with many crises and internal political transitions, as it struggles with the resurgence of the epidemic, with a new German government, looming French elections, and Britain's exit from the European Union.

The migration crisis along the Belarus-Poland border has also kept the European Union's attention relatively far from Ukraine.

However, Washington's position is a major determinant of the West's choices toward Moscow.

Here, the US position is recalled when Russia annexed the Crimea, where the issue was limited to traditional condemnation and the imposition of economic sanctions, with which Moscow has a long experience.

It may be understood from this that the Ukraine crisis in the end belongs to the same American logic, which sees that Ukraine is more important to Moscow than to Washington.

The difference in the European and American position regarding military options to deal with Russian threats to invade Ukraine may push Washington to recalculate, in order to preserve NATO's unity and continue its strategy of strengthening its strategic alliances in the face of China.

Accordingly, Washington's options remain mainly dependent on only one mechanism to pressure the Kremlin, which is sanctions.

Although it imposed significant economic costs on Russia and some of Putin's inner circle, it did little to change Russian policy toward Ukraine.

These sanctions may also affect people and companies not associated with Russia or its ruling elites, including US allies in Europe with whom the Biden administration seeks to improve relations.

Moreover, the Kremlin expects more sanctions to come, and may have already prepared for them.


Find difficult solutions

Amid rising tensions, discussions revolve around possible compromises.

The current basis for resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict is the Minsk II Agreement of February 2015, which was essentially a victorious settlement imposed on a weak Ukraine.

Since then, France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine - the so-called Normandy formula - have been tasked with moving the process forward.

However, Russia and Ukraine agree on the sequence of the agreement that involves Moscow withdrawing its forces from Donbass, in exchange for Kiev enacting constitutional reforms that would grant more autonomy to the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are currently under the control of pro-Russian forces.

But so far, there has been no real breakthrough in the implementation of the Minsk Agreement.

Ukraine is unwilling to transfer more power to the occupied territories without Russia first withdrawing its forces from Donbass, and Kiev refuses to grant special status to these entities, because that would give Russia a veto over Ukraine's foreign policy decisions.

Nor is it clear whether the Kremlin has any intention of implementing the Minsk agreement in its current form - and many analysts believe that Minsk is now unenforceable.

One possible way out of this impasse is to rethink Minsk, replacing it with a process that includes the United States as a direct player and true guarantor of the agreement.

Moscow's recent behavior, including the current crisis, suggests that the Kremlin actually wants the China-focused Biden administration to turn more of its attention to Russia, as it did during the Geneva summit.

The Kremlin, for example, has proposed opening discussions on a new Euro-Atlantic security regime, and US participation in the updated Minsk Agreement could bring this proposal to fruition.

This new format could call for the participation of international peacekeepers, and establish a clearer agreement on the sequence of Russian-Ukrainian de-escalation.

US-Russia relations have often been a mixture of cooperation and confrontation.