Washington -
The United States faces 3 major political crises with its main opponents: China and its possible invasion of Taiwan, Russia and its potential invasion of Ukraine, and Iran, which is advancing in its nuclear program, amid the stalemate in negotiations in Vienna.
Some American analysts believe that these crises will not get out of control, while others believe that we must prepare for the worst-case scenario, which is the possibility of these crises rolling into military conflicts at the same or close times.
Heritage Foundation report: The US military does not currently have the ability to fight two major wars simultaneously (Reuters)
National Defense Strategy
The administration of President Joe Biden did not issue a new national security strategy, and Biden contented himself with the document of the Interim Strategic Guide to National Security, which was published by the White House last March, and provided general guidelines for the administration's vision of strategic threats.
The document considered that China has become "the only potential competitor capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military and technological strength to form a sustainable challenge to a stable and open international order," and referred to the "threat" posed by Russia, "which continues to insist on strengthening its global influence, and to play a role It is causing chaos on the world stage."
The document stressed that the United States' strongest military presence would be in the Pacific region and Europe, while in the Middle East there would be sufficient American presence to meet certain needs.
The new National Defense Strategy is expected to be issued in the first quarter of next year, and the last strategy - issued in 2018 during the era of Donald Trump - focused on the risks of great power competition with China, Russia and other countries at odds with the United States, such as Iran and North Korea.
The report indicates that any military confrontation between America and China will be largely a naval and air combat (Reuters)
2 or 3 wars at once
During World War II, 16 million American soldiers participated in two completely separate battlefields, which made them two separate major wars at the same time, millions of soldiers headed for 5 years to the European front across the Atlantic Ocean to fight Nazi Germany, while millions more participated in the East Asian front. across the Pacific to fight Japan.
The battles of America's war on international terrorism after the events of September 11, 2001 also prompted the participation of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in two wars on Afghanistan and Iraq, and for many years America was fighting on two separate fronts at the same time.
But these wars are not a measure of the worst scenario that some observers fear, which is to fight two strong countries (Russia and China) or 3 strong countries (Russia, China and Iran) at the same time.
A recent report stated that the US military does not currently have the ability to fight two major wars simultaneously, noting that the US military will be able to deal with one major regional conflict and smaller operations in the rest of the world, and that America will suffer greatly if it is forced to fight two major wars. or more at the same time.
That was the conclusion of the "Index of American Military Strength for the year 2022" report issued by the Heritage Foundation, and it came in 608 pages, and was reviewed by Al Jazeera Net.
The report concluded that the threat to US interests from abroad is still "high", as America faces challenges from what the Pentagon calls "4+1 threats", referring to Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, in addition to the risks of terrorism.
confrontation form
The report indicates that any military confrontation with China will be a naval and air combat to a large extent, and this does not mean that the ground forces and the Marine Corps will not participate in the battles, but the potential conflict with China will involve a significant contribution from the naval and air forces, and it will support the ground forces and infantry The navy has some elements of broad confrontations.
On the contrary, the report finds that any military confrontation with Russia will largely be an air and ground battle, in addition to supporting other weapons such as the navy, because Russia cannot be reached, and Europe cannot be reached without crossing the North Atlantic.
This strategy enables the US military to defeat one opponent while preventing another aggressor - seeking to take advantage of the United States' preoccupation with the first conflict - from defeating it in a separate theater, but this strategy is no longer feasible, according to the report.
"The continuing decline in funding and the consequent reduction in strength is putting the US military under significant pressure," the report said.
He stated that if current military budget cuts remain, nearly $1 trillion in Defense Department funding will be cut in the next decade.
The report added that threat levels remain high from Russia and China, as Russia "has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons among nuclear powers (when short-range nuclear weapons are included)", and has demonstrated its willingness to harm US allies in Europe as evidenced by its recent mobilization. Huge forces on the border with Ukraine.
For its part, China has been constantly modernizing its nuclear and conventional forces in recent years and taking increasingly hostile steps towards Taiwan and the countries bordering the South China Sea.
Doug Band, an expert on foreign policy and military affairs at the Cato Institute, says the Pentagon is shifting its focus to the Indo-Pacific region at a time when Washington is increasingly reliant on a network of allies to ward off any dangers from Russia or Iran.
Band emphasized that the United States would win any conflict in the traditional sense, but the cost would be high.
Regarding the danger of war with Iran, Ilan Goldenberg, an expert at the Center for a New American Security, warned that any war with Iran would involve the United States in another conflict in the Middle East for years to come.
Some experts believe that North Korea's threats are much more dangerous than Iran, as it is already well-armed and has many nuclear weapons.
Experts believe that any war with Iran would involve Washington in another conflict in the Middle East for years to come (Reuters)
what if?
But what if the United States had to fight two wars against countries like North Korea and Iran?
What if China and Russia coordinated sufficiently with each other to engage in simultaneous hostilities in the Pacific and in Europe?
Some experts respond by emphasizing that the United States can still fight and win two major wars at the same time, or at least get close enough to achieving a complete victory, while it is not smart for Russia and China to take the risk of testing American capabilities, and this depends The assessment is mainly based on the huge American technological progress militarily compared to Russia and China.
On the other hand, Global Firepower rating data indicates clear American progress, and the United States has the largest military budgets for 2021, advancing in defense spending by 741 billion dollars annually, followed by China with 178 billion, while Russia comes It is ranked 11th with only $42 billion.
According to the "Global Fire Power" classification of the military capabilities of countries - which comes in the context of analyzing 50 factors of the power of countries that flow into their military capabilities - the United States came on top of countries in terms of military power, and Russia was second, followed by China as the third most powerful army in the world , while Iran ranked 14th.
The United States can achieve victory over Russia and China depending on that it still maintains the most powerful army in the world, and at the same time it stands at the head of a very strong military alliance, whether in Southeast Asia against China, or on the European continent against Russia, at a time when Neither country has valuable allies.
However, many experts and a growing number of studies assert that this situation will not last indefinitely, the United States cannot maintain this level of dominance indefinitely, and in the long run it will have to choose its wars carefully.