Assumption no longer excluded
What if the United States withdrew militarily from the Middle East?
The American forces in Iraq withdrew after they became hated there.
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The American forces in Syria will withdraw after they strengthen their allies there.
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This article deals with the study of the repercussions that could result from the withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East in the event that it takes this step, as a kind of “reflective exercise” and “forward-looking thinking” for 2022 and beyond, which starts from a situation and studies its possible effects, from This does not mean that this situation can be achieved in the short or medium term. This type of analysis requires defining the characteristics of the “scene” after which events unfold.
Since the scene is related to the repercussions of the US withdrawal from the region, it is necessary to begin by defining what is meant by this expression.
What is meant is its military withdrawal, in the sense of its physical presence in the form of military bases, bases of training facilities, and logistical bases to provide services to US forces at airports and ports.
Examples of these rules are found in many Arab countries, Turkey, and Israel, and they include officers, soldiers, and civil servants.
The definition of the hypothesis of the American withdrawal here was limited to the military dimension only, because Washington has enormous economic and political interests in the region, and it is very difficult to imagine the emergence of a situation that would push it to sacrifice them.
Motives to quit
The essence of the reasons that could lead the United States to this withdrawal, as former US President Barack Obama stated in his famous interview with the American “Atlantic” magazine in 2016, is that Washington has limited resources, and it must choose the best place to use them, and that this The place is Asia, not the Middle East.
These reasons include the existence of a consensus among the ruling elite in Washington not to engage American forces in long wars that do not directly affect American national security, or that they are wars between countries and local forces that seem endless, or that American interests in the region are no longer vital, and that they do not justify the ongoing level of military presence, as US politician Martin Indyk has argued, or because of the growth of anti-American sentiment in a country, leading the United States to end its direct presence in the region, and instead resort to supporting the military and intelligence capabilities of its allies so that they take responsibility for defending their own country.
In addition, the growing American belief that military intervention is not the best way to protect foreign interests, but that soft power tools, the most important of which is multilateral diplomacy, can achieve better results.
repositioning
If this US military withdrawal from the Middle East is achieved, it will create a new geostrategic environment that will push some major and regional countries to develop their policies in the region.
I deliberately did not use the term “filling the void” used by American policy in the fifties of the last century when it announced the “Eisenhower Doctrine” about filling the void in the Middle East, due to different circumstances and context.
Most likely, the US withdrawal will not lead to the emergence of new international or regional actors, but rather to the development of the roles of the actors and some of them seeking to reposition.
The competition between them may lead to temporary instability here or there.
The countries of the region will reconsider their alliances with the regional states that have strength and seek to develop their influence.
It may also develop relations between non-Arab regional states, such as the relationship between Iran and China, or the relationship between Israel and a Western power.
The rise of China and Russia
The most prominent major powers that will seek to benefit from the American withdrawal from the Middle East can be identified in China and Russia. Although it should be noted at the outset that their role will be within the framework of non-interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region and not getting involved in the existing conflicts between them, but rather it will be a continuation of the policy pursued by the two countries since 2000. Their increased involvement in the region will lead to a widespread belief in the advantage of the Chinese model - Russian administration and government.
If we start with China, we will find that it seeks to be a middle-level developed country by 2035, and to become a great power in the United States by 2050, according to the strategy adopted by the ruling Communist Party.
China has begun its purposeful encroachment to expand its influence in the Middle East, by developing trade relations with all countries in the region, expanding the volume of its investments and focusing on developing infrastructure such as road and port networks, and establishing solar and nuclear renewable energy production projects, which has made China the most important trading partner for the region since 2016. .
One of the most important manifestations of the crystallization of the Chinese role in the Middle East was the signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Iran in March 2021, which many commentators considered one of Beijing's new diplomatic aspects in the region and its global role.
The US withdrawal from the region, if it occurs, will provide the appropriate environment for the consolidation of China's economic influence and the crystallization of its political role, which began to appear before.
China aims to present a development model through cooperation with the countries of the region and presents it as a better alternative to the Western model.
It may engage in arms sales and military technology deals, and develop its military presence, but in a limited and soft way so as not to provoke the United States and Western powers.
And if Washington seeks to contain Beijing, blockade and restrict its activities in the South China Sea, and through the “Ocos” alliance with Australia and Britain, and the “Quad” group with Japan, India and Australia, the development of Chinese influence in the Middle East, or rather “West Asia”, means It has circumvented and consolidated its influence in one of the traditional areas of American influence in the world, which can be called "the direction west."
Then comes Russia, which is looking to expand its influence in the Middle East after it has strengthened its strategic relations with the countries of the region through arms deals, the transfer of technology for building nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes, and a direct military presence in Syria and Libya.
Russia has been able to develop its relations with many countries that are considered pro- or friendly to the United States.
Moscow, for example, sold the S-400 missile system to Turkey, a member of NATO, and Sukhoi-35 aircraft to Egypt.
From this, Russia will aim to reduce American and Atlantic pressures on its direct borders in Ukraine, the Black Sea, and in its traditional areas of influence in Eastern Europe.
It is not expected that a European country will enter the regional competition with China and Russia, but countries such as France, Italy and Britain will seek to support their military bases in some Middle Eastern countries, as well as conclude arms deals with countries willing to do so.
Expansion of regional powers
If we move to the level of non-Arab regional states, Iran is at the forefront of countries that will seek to benefit from the US withdrawal, due to the long-standing hostility between the two countries.
Whatever the circumstances, this withdrawal may lead to an increase in Iranian ambitions and a desire to take advantage of economic and political opportunities in the Arab Gulf states.
It is more likely that this will not be by military or revolutionary means, because such an approach would conflict with the interests of China and Russia, which will be keen to protect the independence of the countries of the region and not to interfere in their affairs.
As for Turkey, it will also seek to benefit from its economic capabilities to strengthen its relations and influence with the countries of the region, conclude arms deals with them, and support its military bases in Somalia, Iraq, Qatar and Syria.
Then comes Israel, which is the closest regional ally of the United States, especially after its inclusion in January 2021 as the 21st country in the list of countries covered by the US Central Command, which in the event of the American withdrawal will seek to extend its influence in the region by providing a security umbrella for the Arab countries wishing to do so. and benefit from its technological progress in many areas.
As for the Arab countries, it is likely that they will not act as a single group, but rather their countries will take several paths, getting closer to Turkey, Iran or Israel, each country according to its assessment of its interests and threats to its security.
The essence of the reasons that could lead the United States to this withdrawal, as former US President Barack Obama stated in his famous interview with the American “Atlantic” magazine in 2016, is that Washington has limited resources, and it must choose the best place to use them, and that this place It is Asia, not the Middle East.
The most prominent major powers that will seek to benefit from the American withdrawal from the Middle East can be identified in China and Russia. And their role will be within the framework of non-interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region and not getting involved in the existing conflicts between them. Rather, it will be a continuation of the policy pursued by the two countries since 2000.
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