The parties to the conflict in Ethiopia change their positions every now and then..the war will not end soon

Yesterday evening, the Tigray Liberation Front regained control of the historic city of Lalibela, which has a great religious stature for Ethiopian Orthodox Christians, 11 days after the central government announced that the rebels had been expelled from the city.

This development comes in light of the government forces' advance and recapture of the fortified industrial cities of "Kamplucha" and "Desi", removing danger from the capital, Addis Ababa, and advancing towards "Weldaya" in the center of Amhara region, which is located on a land road linking the region with the capital of Tigray region.

This fact raises the question: Why did each party choose to move in reaction to its opponent, but in a different way, as if it were a game of chess, waiting for the competitor to move the piece to the other player in order to respond to it?

Ethiopian forces on the front line against the Tigray Liberation Front in the north of the country (Ethiopian News Agency on Facebook)

geography speaks

After the Tigrayans tightened their control over their territory in northern Ethiopia last June, and their president, Debsers Jabra Michael, said last August, “We will go to our enemies where they are,” it was believed that the attack would be on the Amhara region due to the participation of his special forces and the militia known locally as “Fano.” fighting on the side of the government.

Therefore, the ruler of Amhara at the time issued an appeal to everyone able to bear arms to head to the battlefield, and tens of thousands of fighters were mobilized on the border between Amhara and Tigray.

However, contrary to expectations, the Tigrayans set out towards the Afar region, and penetrated into it with the aim of cutting off the country’s lifeline, represented by the land road and railway route linking Addis Ababa and the port of Djibouti, through which about 95 percent of Ethiopia’s exports and imports pass, according to government estimates.

The Tigray headed south to Amhara through the "Gansha" and "Lalibela" fronts and took control of it, from which it marched towards "Disi" and "Kamplucha", and became on the main road towards the capital, which made the various countries appeal to their citizens to leave the country at the earliest opportunity.

Everyone is waiting for the storming of Addis Ababa, and is developing scenarios for that.

But last November, Prime Minister Abi Ahmed took off his civilian uniform and went out to fight, and some thought he would defend the capital, but the pictures broadcast by the official media showed Abi Ahmed in the Afar region.

And soon, the Tigrayan forces retreated outside it, after they were near the strategic city of "Mele" overlooking the Addis Ababa-Djibouti road.

The government forces took the same route from the Afar to Amhara, and recaptured "Lalibela", "Gansha" and a number of towns.

Before arriving "Desi", the Tigray Front announced its withdrawal from the region and return to the center of the Amhara region in the city of "Wuldaya".

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (right) on one of the fighting fronts (communication sites)

The same method on both sides

General Tdesse Haile, who served in the army during Mengistu's rule, justifies the hit-and-run fact that when the Tigrays took the "Lallibela" route, their plan was to avoid confrontation with the Amhara forces that had massed waiting for them on the borders of the two provinces.

This gave them the advantage of surprise, so they quickly took control of a number of cities.

But - Hailey tells Al Jazeera Net - the government forces followed the same method, and surprised them from the Afar with its main strength, and at the same time, it came out to them with a great force from the capital.

And if they did not withdraw, they would have found themselves in the midst of pincers of government forces, especially since these towns are located on one long road.

But what did the Tigray do?

They withdrew and returned again via the route they took 4 months ago, and if they continue to advance they can isolate the cities of "Bahr Dar" and "Gondar" in the far north of Amhara from the rest of the country.

Ould Wardi, the leader of the Tigray Front, stressed in his first media appearance that their withdrawal came to achieve strategic goals.

After this shift from Tigray, Ethiopians are now waiting for the reaction of the government player led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

long war

The Ethiopian Prime Minister announced during the past year that the imposition of the law would not take long, and his words were almost true, as his forces took control of all of the Tigray region within 60 days.

But after 4 months, things changed with the retaking of the Tigrayan capital of Mekkeli province last May.

Now, the same scenario is repeated with the exchange of control over cities in the Amhara and Afar regions.

Perhaps this is what made the Stratfor Center, which is close to the US intelligence services, saying that the rapid advance of government forces does not indicate an imminent end to the war.

Sudanese military expert Ahmed Abdel Karim draws attention to a point that will prolong the confrontations, and he tells Al Jazeera Net that "the participation of the Amhara forces from the beginning opened the door to the historical conflict between the two nationalities over the sovereignty of Ethiopia, which made hostility rise between them. And the choice of the Tigray Afar front put them in a nationalistic confrontation." Territory as well.

Even the alliance announced in Washington depended on the nationalities, the largest of which is the Oromo, and on others that are small in size but have historical problems with the Amhara.

As for General Haley, he believes that expanding the battlefields will increase the number of victims.

He said that the expansion of the scope of confrontations and the opening of new fronts, especially since most of the fighting takes place in civilian areas, will add new groups who have justifications to participate in the fighting because they are affected by the loss of relatives or property, and these are new fuels to increase the life of the war.

Two displaced Ethiopians from the cities of Disi and Kambolcha in an asylum center (Getty Images)

Millions without aid

The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that thousands of teachers, shopkeepers, students and former soldiers have joined the Ethiopian army.

In return, thousands of civilians joined the Tigray rebels.

In the recent history of Ethiopia, the coalition that overthrew the government of Mengistu Haile Mariam (1974-1991), began its first military operations in May 1975, and did not enter the capital until 17 years of fighting on various fronts of the country.

During this long war life, international and regional initiatives to put an end to the suffering of civilians in Africa's second most populous country have weakened.

As the fighting continues, the suffering of civilians who need food aid increases, and the United Nations estimates so far about 26 million people, a number close to a quarter of the country's population.