Standby: what are the prospects for concluding a peace treaty between the DPRK and South Korea

President of the Republic of Korea Moon Jae-in said that Seoul, Pyongyang, Washington and Beijing generally agree on the need to declare the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War. He said this at a press conference following talks with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. However, the South Korean leader noted that the position of the DPRK with respect to the United States impedes the negotiation of a peace treaty.

“I believe that, in principle,

everyone agrees

with the declaration (about the end of the war. -

).

But North Korea says it needs to see the reversal of hostile US policies.

It should be borne in mind that she puts forward this as a precondition.

Because of this, we cannot sit down at the negotiating table on (signing. -

) declarations between South and North Korea, as well as between North Korea and the United States, "said Moon Jae In.

He also stressed that the declaration is not the final goal for the listed parties.

“After that, it is necessary to develop a procedure for a peaceful settlement, for the establishment of a

peaceful regime

on the Korean Peninsula (permanent -

).

For this, and for the sake of developing a declaration to end the war, we need to reach a consensus.

In this regard, I would like to note that the issue of declaring the end of the war is connected with the end of the ceasefire regime, which has existed for the past 70 years and is rather unstable, ”the president explained.

According to him, the development of this program will help in the future negotiations on the denuclearization of the peninsula.

• South Korean President Moon Jae-in

• globallookpress.com

• © Xinhua / Wang Ying

Pyongyang's discontent

In turn, the DPRK believes that peace between the parties can be concluded only after the United States changes its attitude towards them.

Pyongyang opposes the American military presence on the territory of its neighbors, their constant joint exercises, as well as the sanctions imposed by Washington.

"The United States often says that it has no hostile intentions towards our country, but Washington's behavior is contrary to its words," TASS quotes DPRK Secretary General Kim Jong-un, who spoke on October 11 at the defense development exhibition dedicated to 76- anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea.

It will not be easy to resolve the situation on the Korean Peninsula due to the US position and South Korea's double standards, he said.

Kim Jong-un also stated that the main enemy for him is the war itself, and not any particular country.

“However, our peaceful efforts in no way mean that we are giving up the right to self-defense,” he stressed.

Also, the Foreign Ministry of the country previously emphasized that they are not yet observing the conditions for signing a peace treaty with the United States.

“There is no guarantee that the signing of a declaration on the end of the war will lead to the US abandoning its hostile policy towards the DPRK ... policy of the United States, "- TASS quotes the statement of the head of the North Korean Foreign Ministry Ri Tae Sung, published by the CTAC on September 24.

• Leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-un

• Reuters

• © KCNA

Consultations in progress

At the same time, the United States has a more optimistic view of the process of preparing a peace treaty.

In particular, US First Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman emphasized that Washington does not harbor "hostile intentions towards the DPRK" and assigns a central role in resolving the situation on the peninsula to dialogue and diplomacy.

At the same time, she noted that the United States remains committed to the idea of ​​complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

According to Sherman, the United States is consulting with its allies on the preparation of a declaration to end the war.

“With regard to the declaration of an end to the war, the United States is very pleased with the consultations we have with the Republic of Korea, Japan and other allies and partners on how best to move forward to ensure the full denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” the diplomat said. at a press conference on November 17.

At the same time, she stressed that the United States remains committed to the sanctions policy against North Korea.

“In cases where North Korea takes action that ... creates risks for our countries and countries around the world, it makes no sense on our part to do anything other than apply sanctions, make statements and join forces,” Sherman said. ...

And this despite the fact that earlier the Joe Biden administration was going to completely revise Washington's policy towards the DPRK.

In particular, the current head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken, spoke about this during the January hearings in the Senate, at which his appointment as Secretary of State was approved.

The White House may even consider providing humanitarian aid to North Korea, he said.

“We really want to ensure that in all aspects of our work, attention is paid not only to security considerations, but also to humanitarian considerations,” he said.

• US Department of State

• AP

• © J. Scott Applewhite

Protracted conflict

Recall that the military conflict between Seoul and Pyongyang took place in 1950-1953. At that time, South Korea was supported by a coalition of almost 20 states led by the United States, while China and the Soviet Union took the side of the northerners. More than 1.5 million people became victims of hostilities. The result of the confrontation is the signing of an armistice agreement. At the same time, the South Korean side then refused to put its signature on the document. Therefore, the war has not been formally stopped for over 70 years.

Later, attempts were made to conclude a full-fledged peace treaty between the parties. However, they were not crowned with success, especially since Pyongyang began to actively develop its nuclear program and on January 1, 2018 announced the completion of the creation of national nuclear forces. Analysts believe that this fact pushed Washington to resume negotiations with the DPRK. So, in June of the same year, the 45th US President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un met. As a result, the parties signed a joint declaration of intent. Pyongyang has pledged to eliminate its nuclear arsenal in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.

Subsequent meetings between the leaders were not so successful.

The last time they negotiated was on June 30, 2019, the topic was the resumption of the denuclearization of Pyongyang.

At the next summit at the working group level, which was scheduled for October 2019, the North Korean delegation did not appear, noting that US representatives arrived for the talks without formulating any constructive proposals.

The rollback in the dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang was reflected in the DPRK's relations with the Republic of Korea.

In June 2020, the northerners cut off all contact with their neighbors.

• DPRK leader Kim Jong-un and 45th US President Donald Trump

• globallookpress.com

• © Xinhua / NEWSIS

Unnecessary world

Experts interviewed by RT believe that, despite all the US statements about ongoing consultations on the drafting of a peace agreement between the Koreas, in fact, the States are not interested in resolving this conflict.

“After the signing of the peace agreement, the conclusion of a peace treaty should follow.

But the United States is not interested in it.

They intend to continue to pursue a policy of separation in relation to the states on the Korean Peninsula.

And Moon Jae In's statements are image-making, because he has created an image of himself as a fighter for the reconciliation of Seoul and Pyongyang, "Yevgeny Kim, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in a commentary to RT.

In this regard, the expert suggested that this issue will be delayed and will not be resolved in the near future.

The analyst also recalled that Russia and China had previously proposed in the UN Security Council to create prerequisites for normalizing the situation around the DPRK by easing sanctions.

However, the United States then rejected this initiative.

“After all, if a peace treaty is signed, it will mean that Washington will have to withdraw its troops from South Korea, where they are under the pretext of protecting Seoul.

However, in reality, the American contingent is deployed there not for the sake of South Korean allies, but to keep under control the actions of China and Russia in the Asia-Pacific region, ”Kim said.

In turn, Roman Faynshmidt, a leading specialist at the Department of International Politics and Foreign Regional Studies, RANEPA, noted that the current president of South Korea may still exert some pressure on the United States in relation to softening its position on the DPRK.

After all, Moon Jae In is interested in progress in the dialogue with Pyongyang - next year the country will hold presidential elections, and he would like to hand over the chair to his party member.

“These elections are one of the most competitive in recent years, since it is still not clear which of the candidates is capable of winning.

Of course, it is important for Moon Jae In to hand over the presidency to his successor.

The conclusion of a peace treaty with the DPRK may just be that non-trivial step that will contribute to the final preponderance in favor of his fellow democrat, "Feinschmidt told RT in a commentary.

In addition, the expert believes, Moon Jae In also wants to spread straws for himself in case any questions arise after his departure, as was the case with other ex-presidents.

“There is a 'tradition' in South Korea of ​​sending former presidents to jail or initiating corruption proceedings against them.

Almost all presidents were forced to face this - two of them are now in prison.

For Moon Jae-in, the conclusion of such an agreement could become a guarantee that any kind of proceedings in his direction will not be initiated.

Imagine how to persecute someone who brought peace to his country, ”added the analyst.

However, according to the general director of the Center for Political Information, Alexei Mukhin, the United States is unlikely to play Moon Jae-in's games, since it pursues its own interests.

“Several years ago, the rapprochement between South and North Korea began, but the achievement of more serious agreements was prevented by pressure on Seoul from the United States.

Such pressure will be repeated again and again when such situations arise, because the world is not in Washington's interests, "Mukhin said in an interview with RT.

Meanwhile, he noted, Seoul would benefit from this peace treaty, as it would gain access to cheap labor and the North Korean market, which would give an even greater impetus to the economic development of the South.

“However, the Americans cannot allow this, since they will lose a foothold for their military contingent and, consequently, for containing China in the region.

In addition, not a single US president wants to be the one who will yield to the DPRK, ”the expert summed up.