ECOWAS and Mali: between firmness and openness

Malian interim president Colonel Assimi Goïta during a review of the armed forces on June 7, 2021 in Bamako.

AFP - ANNIE RISEMBERG

Text by: David Baché

4 min

ECOWAS remains firm with Bamako.

Gathered this Sunday, December 12, the heads of state of the West African organization demand that the presidential and legislative elections, which must mark the return to constitutional order, be held on February 27, as planned.

They are threatening Mali with new sanctions, while granting additional time to the transitional authorities.

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Firmness, in the

ECOWAS did not impose new sanctions against Mali - they were however on the table - but it renews its threat. The West African organization is giving the authorities until the end of the month to demonstrate " 

 " in "

 " for the elections. Otherwise, additional sanctions will be imposed as of January 1. 

Since last month, members of the transitional authorities have already been targeted by an asset freeze and a travel ban.

The next level would concern, this time, the whole country, with economic and financial sanctions, like those that had been adopted, just after the coup of August 2020, and which had slowed down sharply, for almost two month, Mali's trade. 

The date of February 27 will not be held

A serious threat therefore, but which also leaves room for an attempt at conciliation.

Because it allows, narrowly, the transitional authorities to continue on the pace they had planned and to specify the electoral timetable only at the end of the National Assembly of the refoundation which began on Saturday and which must be completed. December 30, the day before the last day of the ultimatum issued by ECOWAS. 

It is impossible to predict the chronogram that will actually be drawn up during the Assises, but it is already clear that the date of February 27 will not be kept.

However, by granting this additional time to the Transitional authorities, ECOWAS is therefore playing both firmness and openness.  

A reasonable provisional timetable

Thus, ECOWAS remains firm with the Malian transitional authorities because it demands the holding of elections on February 27 as planned. But while the authorities have already announced that there will be a postponement, the ECOWAS gives them additional time, before - possibly - toughening the sanctions. How to understand it? RFI asked Brema Ely Dicko, a sociologist specializing in Malian politics at the University of Bamako. 

Brema Ely Dicko:

You have to understand that the firmness of ECOWAS is part of a logic of respecting the schedule initially agreed between the Malian authorities and ECOWAS.

It was the Malians who had made the commitment to hold the elections on that date.

It is true that there were various constraints, but the ECOWAS is obliged to remain firm so that the Malians themselves propose a timetable within a reasonable time.

All the more so since what is happening in Mali can have echoes in Guinea, or even in other ECOWAS countries.  

RFI: Do you think that a consensus can still be found, possibly with a short-term postponement of the elections, or are we going to clash between Bamako and ECOWAS

In my opinion there will be no clash.

A clash would suit neither the ECOWAS nor the Malian authorities.

On both sides, there is nevertheless a certain desire to find a compromise.

President Assimi Goïta sent a letter on December 9 to ECOWAS to commit himself to providing a timetable.

So, it is still a mark of consideration vis-à-vis ECOWAS.

On the other hand, ECOWAS hears this message well but has a duty to stand firm, taking into account all the geopolitical threats that are there.

Also, I think that a compromise will be found, especially since the National Refoundation Conference has been launched.

So, if the Malian authorities are still on the same path, they will be forced to propose a timetable, if only provisional, at the beginning of January.

And a reasonable tentative timeline, what could that look like

[Laughs]

You have to be clear.

Reforms are needed, especially of the electoral system.

These reforms cannot be done without a consensus with the political class and it is true that certain political parties shun the National Assizes.

It is therefore necessary to allow a minimum of three months, or even six months.

Personally, I think that these elections will not be able to be held before the month of June.  

In your opinion, would President Assimi Goita be ready to impose a greater extension of the transition period

Well, to do another two years would be too pretentious, from my point of view, and that would be too bad.

What you cannot do in eighteen months, I do not see what use would be to add another two years. 

Can the threat of new ECOWAS sanctions influence the Malian transitional authorities

Not necessarily.

You know, Mali is also watching.

Guinea has taken its positions and for the moment, ECOWAS is adopting a firm speech but has not yet shifted into high gear.

So, I am not sure that it is this pressure which makes the Malian authorities bend.

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