What future for New Caledonia after the referendum?

• France was keen to maintain the third and last referendum on the independence of New Caledonia this Sunday

• Unsurprisingly, the "no" largely won since the defenders of independence called on their voters to "stay at home"

• From now on, the archipelago is in a vague position since the separatists do not recognize the ballot and still want a referendum on independence.

Twenty-three years later, the next day has finally arrived in New Caledonia. The third and final referendum on the independence of New Caledonia which was held this Sunday was imagined in 1998 during the Nouméa accords. The latter paved the way for a process of decolonization in stages, the last of which has therefore just ended with the victory of the "no" to independence with 96.49% of the votes. The problem is that this ballot was marked by a very strong abstention (56.10%) at the request of the separatist camp who refused to get involved in the ballot, believing that the Covid-19 epidemic had made the impossible campaign.

Now the archipelago is in a particularly vague situation since the separatists refuse to recognize the results of a contesting ballot and to dialogue with the French government before the next tenant of the Elysee Palace is known. 

 deciphers the new deadlines and challenges to be met in order to build a “new political organization” between France and New Caledonia.

A transition period until June 2023

"An 18-month transition period" must first begin to develop a new statute in the Republic, according to page 45 of the official working document of the state. The stated objective: "to free themselves from the binary alternative between yes and no" and "to build a common project" in this "new stage", explained Emmanuel Macron in his televised address after the proclamation of the results of the referendum, this Sunday.

"We are not starting from a blank page but everything has to be redone now," explains

geographer Jean-Christophe Gay, author in 2020 of

(IRD editions)

to

. For him, “ending this phase with a referendum that legally holds water but is politically not legitimate, it's a bit annoying. "

Indeed, the separatists repeated on several occasions that they did not intend to recognize the ballot after the vote because they had called for several weeks their voters not to come.

For Benoît Trépied, anthropologist in charge of research at the CNRS and specialist in New Caledonia, the government's calendar, in this context, “only commits the Minister of Overseas, Sébastien Lecornu, because we do not know what will be the content of the discussion during the coming months nor the electorate who will be called to vote if there is a referendum in 18 months ”.

Towards a new referendum on a constitutional revision

According to the executive, two phases are now planned: the "assessment" of the Nouméa agreement, before discussions which will "lead to a new constitutional revision", a revision of the Organic Law and a "project consultation".

It is a priori on this point that New Caledonians will have to vote in June 2023.

"The State does not intend to confuse speed and haste in this important phase," Overseas Minister Sébastien Lecornu told AFP this Sunday, stressing however that "certain topical issues are urgent".

The Head of State notably mentioned this Sunday "the economic (and) health situation, the recovery, the balance of public accounts", or "the inequalities which weaken the unity of the archipelago, the nickel strategy, food and energy autonomy, land, taxation ”.

An impossible dialogue before the presidential election?

It remains to be seen who will be at the negotiating table in the coming weeks with the government on the future of the archipelago.

The Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) and the nationalists do not wish to discuss "before the presidential election" of April 2022. Rock Wamytan, the president of the FNLKS announced the color on franceinfo this Sunday: "we will come to discussions with the person who will come out of the polls for the next presidential election.

We will wait for the next one.

If it is Emmanuel Macron, we will continue to discuss, ”he assures us.

He therefore estimates that he has "four months to refine" his independence project, with the help of the United Nations, and "to present a project that holds up" to the current or future French government and to the New Caledonian population. To anticipate the tensions, the French Overseas Department reassured that "the reconciliation of memories, the preservation and enhancement of Kanak culture remained more relevant than ever".

One thing is certain: the question of independence is not definitively settled, even after this third referendum.

"The legitimacy of independence when you are an indigenous and first people remains intact," says Jean-Christophe Gay.

We can find solutions that are not binary between a complete attachment to France and full sovereignty ", he says, taking a local example:" There is a model of this type in the Pacific with the Cook Islands ”, Which became an autonomous state, freely associated with New Zealand.

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New Caledonia: Why does the probable no to the independence referendum on Sunday mean anything?

• Overseas

• Emmanuel Macron

• Independence

• Referendum

• New Caledonia

• Elections

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