It is no coincidence that Russian President Putin is tightening the tone towards Ukraine at the very moment when American President Biden has agreed to work with Russia on an "arrangement" to reduce tensions in Eastern Europe. For Putin, the conversation with Biden and the announced dialogue are a success of the military threat that he has built up around Ukraine. For him, it's not about relieving tension. He brought it about himself in order to gain political ground. Where the other person shrinks, he advances. From his point of view, it is therefore logical to respond to an offer of relaxation from the West by increasing the temperature of the conflict: he ultimately wants to achieve further concessions in the talks.

This is a pattern of Russian politics that has been clearly recognizable since the invasion of Georgia in 2008 at the latest.

As paradoxical as it sounds: Further attempts to calm the situation with rhetorical or real concessions did not reduce the risk of war, but increased it.

They would confirm Putin's assumption that the West will fall back if Russia only appears martial enough.

The fact that Putin is now speaking of a “genocide” in eastern Ukraine is a high-pitched alarm signal: he made the same accusation against Georgia in 2008 and at the height of the fighting in Ukraine in 2015.