China and Russia do not expect a fundamental improvement in relations with Germany, and Washington is counting on Berlin's support
The world expects “a lot” from the new German government
The new German government includes politically divergent parties.
Reuters
Angela Merkel and her successor Olaf Scholz.
AFP
It is expected that the positions of the new German Foreign Minister Annallina Birbock will be of interest in Israel.
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Over the past months, the political leaders in Germany have been keen on several occasions to confirm the continuity of German foreign policy, which was clearly demonstrated during the last G-20 summit in Rome, when Angela Merkel, who was still chancellor at the time, was accompanied by her current deputy and successor, Olaf Scholz. Together, they had all the important discussions.
Today, Friday, Schulz begins his first foreign tour as chancellor of Germany, and begins with a visit to Paris and Brussels.
From now on, the international community will be watching closely whether the new SPD chancellor continues Merkel's path on the international stage or does something different.
United State
US President Joe Biden's government continues to bet on Germany as a strong country that assumes its responsibilities within the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the international community.
The Americans will pay special attention to the positions of the new German government towards China.
Washington is pushing for a more confrontational approach with its strategic rival, while the Merkel government has bet more on dialogue and good trade relations.
The same applies to future dealings with Russia.
The movements of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border are currently causing severe tensions in the region.
Washington is counting on the threat of harsh sanctions to control Russia's potential military ambitions.
The US government also needs the support of Germany and the European Union. After all, Moscow's NATO allies in Europe are important trading partners and financial centers.
In terms of dealing with Russia, the old issue of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline also remains controversial.
Washington will insist that the new German government fulfill its obligations under a settlement agreement that Germany entered into with the United States on the issue, in which Germany pledged to support Ukraine in particular.
China
Merkel will be sorely missed by Beijing now, who, while expressing her honest opinion, has always been understanding of China and has pursued a more economically oriented policy with her.
Beijing hopes not only that Schulz will be aware of Germany's dependence on economic cooperation with China, but that it will also be important for it that the new chancellor - like Merkel - take the lead with China and not leave the management of the difficult relationship in the hands of the new foreign minister, Annalena. Birbock.
It is well known that the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party, which are in the ruling coalition with the Social Democratic Party, want not only to defend the rights of the oppressed Uyghurs, Tibetans or Hong Kong citizens, but also to defend free trade and fair access to markets.
Because of tensions with the United States, Beijing is also preparing for tough times by reducing its dependence on the outside world.
Russia
In light of the high tensions of recent years, Russia does not expect any substantive improvement in relations with Germany.
Analysts in Moscow confirm that Russia enjoys a relatively positive position in the German ruling coalition agreement, but they also point to Foreign Minister Annalina Birbock's sharp tone toward Moscow, especially her rejection of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Nevertheless, Moscow-based German expert Vladislav Belov expects the chancellor to continue his predecessor's foreign policy approach.
Belov sees no tendency toward confrontation under the leadership of the Social Democrat Schulz.
"Members of the ruling coalition do not start from red lines, but from a constructive approach," says the head of the German Center at the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In terms of security policy, Russia's nuclear power is also betting on a more respectful tone under new Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht.
Former Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer repeatedly upset Moscow with statements that Germany should talk to "Russia from a position of strength".
Turkey
With a foreign ministry led by Green Party leader Annalina Birbock, Turkey may have to adapt to a tougher approach to the new German government. Criticism of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for example, on human rights issues is a frequent occurrence among German Green Party politicians.
In light of the European asylum policy, Berbock described Erdogan last September as a model of an "anti-democratic actor", who became a "toy" in his hand.
The party has so far been calling for an end to the refugee deal.
Although this agreement is concluded between Turkey and the European Union, Merkel participated in its negotiation and supported its conclusion.
During a farewell visit to Merkel as chancellor to Turkey in mid-October, Erdogan stressed that he hoped for close cooperation between the two countries with the new German government.
It remains only to wait to see how relations between the two countries will develop.
France
France was primarily interested in forming a government in Germany as soon as possible, because Paris will take over the presidency of the European Union next January. As the most populous EU member state, Germany is particularly important for new projects.
With the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party - as pro-European parties - Paris expects the continuity of past German policies, analyzes Eric-Andre Martin of the French Institute of International Relations.
Martin says that Schulz, as a well-known and experienced politician, gives Paris some safety and is seen as the preferred partner.
In contrast, the expert on Franco-German relations, pointed out that the open question for France remains whether Schulz will be able to maintain cohesion between the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party, which are politically far apart.
France also pays close attention to how to reconcile the necessary investments in climate protection with the stringent debt policy in place to date and the path to financial stability.
Israel and Palestine
As for Israel, the new German government is generally expected to continue the approach taken before. The new ruling coalition enshrined in the coalition treaty the phrase made earlier by Merkel, in which she considered Israel's security a "national interest" of Germany.
The new chancellor, Schulz, plans to make that a priority, too.
The new government also intends to work for a two-state solution in the Middle East, that is, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
It is currently expected that the Palestinian side will make progress in democracy, the rule of law and human rights.
As for Israel, it is required to stop settlement expansion in the Palestinian territories, which is seen as an obstacle to a future peace settlement.
It is expected that the positions of the new German Foreign Minister, Annalina Bierbock, will become a focus of attention in Israel, where the leader of the Green Party previously called for stopping the delivery of German submarines to Israel in 2018, but in the recent conflict with the ruling Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, Birbock clearly supported the Israeli side, stressed Israel's right to defend itself, and distanced itself from the BDS movement.
Britain
In Britain, the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was hailed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the German newspaper "Bild" as a "giant of international diplomacy," was clearly stronger than the formation of the new German government. You can hardly find editorials in British newspapers, or comments about the new German government or even statements by politicians. It seems clear to everyone there that German politics will not fundamentally change despite the shift in the ruling coalition, and Brexit has shifted priorities: for London Brussels has become the most important contact partner in the EU, and often its only contact partner in the Union, too. Because Berlin will not speak out on issues such as those relating to Northern Ireland and fishing rights. Prime Minister Johnson's vision has long gone beyond Europe, and his slogan has become "Global Britain".Although British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss lauded military cooperation with NATO, she hardly mentioned the European Union or even Germany.
• Not only does Beijing hope that Schulz is aware of Germany's dependence on economic cooperation with China, but that it will also be important for the new chancellor - like Merkel - to take the lead with Beijing.
• The Americans will pay special attention to the positions of the new German government towards China. Washington is pressing for a more confrontational approach with Beijing. The Merkel government bet more on dialogue and trade.
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