“The decision has not been easy, but I have a basic assurance that this is right.
That is the best thing for the party. "
This is how Stefan Löfven (S) justified his resignation at the end of August.
Just over a hundred days later, the former Prime Minister seems to have been right.
Not since the initial months of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 has the Social Democrats had a similar upswing in SVT / Novus.
The fact that parties gain a foothold in public opinion when they elect a new party leader is often about hopes for a change of course, especially among those voters who disliked the path taken.
In Magdalena Andersson's case, it is difficult to claim that she stands for something completely new.
Alongside Stefan Löfven (S), she is the prime minister who has had the greatest influence over the government's policy over the past seven years.
But judging by this measurement, it is not in her barrel.
Instead, the rise indicates that she has succeeded with the ambition to signal a fresh start.
Andersson wants to "turn every stone"
Another explanation is the clarity.
That Magdalena Andersson wants to "turn every stone" to deal with crime and segregation has become a rather worn mantra at this point, but it has served its purpose - namely to clarify which political project should permeate the entire government's work.
And like his former boss Göran Persson (S), Andersson does not seem to hesitate to point with his whole hand.
That clarity was lacking under Stefan Löfven.
The fact that the Social Democrats have a flow from several parties, including SD and M, is another factor that speaks for an Andersson effect.
It also makes the lead in the confidence league.
According to Novus, there is a seven percentage point difference in trust between Magdalena Andersson (S) and Ulf Kristersson (M).
That should worry Kristersson
Utöver uppgången för S är Miljöpartiets tillbakagång den enda statistiskt säkerställda förändringen. Återigen hamnar de under riksdagsspärren men en möjlig tröst kan vara att mätningen visar en signifikant uppgång sista veckan i mätperioden. Det kan stärka partiets förhoppning om att växa när de nu står fria att opinionsbilda för en mer radikal miljö-och klimatpolitik utan att begränsas av regerandets kompromisser. Baksidan är att de riskerar att bli irrelevanta. Och utan de resurser som regeringskansliet erbjuder minskar möjligheten för ett litet parti att ta sig igenom det mediala bruset, alldeles oavsett hur mycket de väljer att kritisera sin forna regeringspartner.
The Moderates are also losing and are now back at the same level as in July.
But what should worry Ulf Kristersson (M) more is the inferiority of his government alternative.
According to this poll, where neither the MP nor L can pass the parliamentary blockade, the right-wing opposition would get 171 seats against 178 for the parties that released Magdalena Andersson for the post of prime minister.
Weakest government since 1979
But is everything then peace and joy for Magdalena Andersson?
The short answer is no.
With a messy government formation and four ministers in less than a week, the start has been anything but brilliant.
The fact that the parties in the government base are facing an open curtain also raises questions about how Magdalena Andersson will put together a credible alternative before the election.
In addition, leading the weakest government since 1979 in terms of the number of seats means obvious difficulties in getting its policies through.
Possibly a minor concern about the focus of the “election movement government” is to show voters what S prioritises for the next term, but in the long run there is a lack of factual political delivery to reduce confidence.
Despite the concerns, it is a clear advantage for the largest party to rule in solitary majesty until the election.
A lot can happen in Swedish politics and in public opinion in the nine months that remain, but it should not be ruled out that the decision to resign turns out to be the power player Löfven's smartest move.