Why this renewed tension on the border between Russia and Ukraine

• The conflict between the Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army has escalated in recent weeks on the border between Russia and Ukraine.

  The tension is extreme and Kiev claims that Moscow has massed thousands of soldiers in preparation for a possible invasion of the country. 

• Russia denies any belligerent inclination towards Ukraine, from which it annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, but categorically opposes any membership of Kiev in NATO

• In this explosive context, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Poutin, spoke during a virtual summit lasting more than two hours on Tuesday. Not offering any solution to the conflict in the short term.

A (virtual) summit which acts on the tensions without really unpinning them.

On Wednesday, facing Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden threatened Russia with "strong economic sanctions" if it invaded Ukraine.

For his part, the Russian president unsuccessfully demanded guarantees on a freeze on NATO's expansion.

The two-hour interview would have been "useful", according to US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, and "frank and professional," according to the Kremlin.

A vocabulary that does not radiate excessive heat, and a summit far from being able to make us affirm that the Ukraine file is in the process of being closed.

But why so much tension around Kiev? 

takes stock.

What is happening on the border between Russia and Ukraine?

Washington, NATO and Kiev accuse Moscow of massing troops on the border with Ukraine in order to attack the country. The scenario is reminiscent of 2014 and the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, then the outbreak in eastern Ukraine of an armed conflict with pro-Russian separatists which has left more than 13,000 dead in seven years. The Kremlin, widely regarded as the military and financial godfather of this conflict, denies any plans for an invasion. And accuses Washington of neglecting its own concerns: the increased activity of NATO countries in the Black Sea, the Ukrainian desire to join the Atlantic alliance and Kiev's ambition to arm itself with the West. For Moscow, which wants to influence the international scene, Ukraine is a pawn on the political spectrum.The support of the Atlantic Alliance in Kiev and the Ukrainian ambitions to join the organization feed, according to her, the risk of military confrontation in the region and constitute a threat to the security of Russia.

Is a Russian invasion possible?

Many observers, in Europe and in the United States, think that Vladimir Poutine is bluffing with the deployment of forces at the borders of Ukraine, but few completely rule out the hypothesis of an attack ... Since the end of October, however, videos have been circulating on social media, showing troops, tanks and armored vehicles heading for the Ukrainian border.

If Moscow denies it, the Ukrainian Defense Minister assures us that Russia has deployed around 115,000 soldiers there and will be ready for a possible military "escalation" at the end of January.

Tuesday, Joe Biden assured that the sending of American troops to defend Ukraine from a Russian attack was "not considered".

What is the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline doing in this conflict?

Long a drag on American diplomacy, the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, to which Joe Biden had finally resigned himself, is making a strong comeback as one of Washington's main "levers" to deter Moscow to invade Ukraine. The White House did not say clearly if the President of the United States had brandished this threat Tuesday during the virtual summit but, in front of the press, his adviser for national security, Jake Sullivan, insisted on this track "absolutely priority" : “If Vladimir Putin wants the future Nord Stream 2 to carry gas, he may not take the risk of invading Ukraine. "According to a former American ambassador in Kiev, William Taylor," Nord Stream 2 is a serious option "," one of the most important measures "under consideration,because it would allow the Biden administration to show great firmness without going so far as to cause an economic earthquake.

Who supports whom?

Washington particularly insists on the threat of economic sanctions against the Russian regime.

And ensures that they would be more painful than those which have piled up without much effect on Russia since 2014. The European Union is also ready to adopt additional sanctions against Russia, warned the President of the European Commission on Tuesday. , Ursula von der Leyen.

As for the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he threatened this Wednesday with possible "consequences" for the Nord Stream 2 linking Russia to Germany in the event of an invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops.

"Our position is very clear, we want the inviolability of borders to be respected by all", he declared in his first interview after taking office, on the television channel Welt TV.

Our dossier on Ukraine

France has warned Russia of the "strategic and massive consequences" that an aggression against Ukraine would have.

"Firm messages have been sent to Russia on the strategic and massive consequences that a new attack on the territorial integrity of Ukraine would have," said the French Foreign Ministry.

Finally, the United Kingdom reaffirmed Wednesday its support for Ukraine and repeated that any incursion on the part of Russia would represent a "strategic error".

Speaking to the press from Sochi, Vladimir Putin himself ruled on Wednesday that Russia had the right to defend itself.

"Russia is pursuing a foreign policy for peace, but it has the right to protect its security", commented Vladimir Poutine, estimating that letting NATO approach its borders without reacting would be "criminal".

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