With the departure of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed last November 23 in his military uniform to the fighting areas in the regions of Afar and Amhara in the north-east of the country and the advance of his forces there;

The balance of power between the parties to the ongoing fighting in Ethiopia is changing.

With these developments, the commander of the forces of the Tigray Liberation Front, Tadesse Wardi, came out to reiterate that the withdrawal of his forces from "Afar" came as a strategic strike.

While the state radio and television quoted Abi Ahmed - last Thursday - as saying that "the enemy was completely destroyed and disintegrated", in reference to the Tigray forces.

These changes in the military scene in Ethiopia open the door to questions about how the scales will turn, and what is expected after that, and to what direction the crisis in Ethiopia will go.


Before Abe's military exit

Before last November 23, the forces of the Tigray Front were close to cutting off the strategic road linking the capital, Addis Ababa, to the port in the State of Djibouti, by trying to control the strategic city of "Mele" that overlooks this road, through which 95% of Ethiopia's exports and imports pass, According to government statistics.

On the other hand, Tigray forces had bypassed the Amhara region after taking control of the city of Disi and then Kamblocha and reached Shawarbet (220 km from Addis Ababa), and advanced to the areas of Debre Burhan and Debersina until they entered the Showa Governorate, which is adjacent to the capital.

At the same time, its allies were from the Oromo Liberation Army, advancing from the south and west until it reached the areas adjacent to Addis Ababa.

And the calls to evacuate the nationals from several countries gave the impression that the capital was about to fall.


The scene has changed

On November 24, the Afar Regional Government announced the removal of the Tigray Front forces from the strategic Mili.

In fact, the government army and the militias supporting it from the Afar region recaptured the towns of "Quzba" and "Chena" and their surroundings in the Afar province of "Gashina", which is adjacent to the regions of Tigray and Amhara.

Abdul Qadir Ibrahim, a journalist based in the Afar region, told Al Jazeera Net that "the fighting is now taking place on the borders of the Afar region with the regions of Tigray and Amhara, after Afar fighters and the Ethiopian army entered into violent clashes with the "Tigray rebels", and pushed them out of the region."

For its part, the Afar government said in a statement that the special forces of Afar region and the forces of the Ethiopian army managed to regain all the areas controlled by the Tigray Liberation Front.

The former military official in the Ethiopian army, Hassan Awal, told Al Jazeera Net that the air operations carried out by the rallies - especially in the Afar region, where the land is flat - played a role in the retreat of the Tigray forces;

In addition to the participation of Afar fighters.

Thus, government forces took control of the roads linking Tigray with Afar, through which UN relief vehicles pass.

The government forces could now control the same route that the Tigray forces had traveled, when they attacked Disi and other cities, thus cutting off the access between Amhara and the capital.

Perhaps this explains the retreat of the Tigrayan forces from this region to the center of Amhara;

In order not to get caught between the forces defending the capital, Addis Ababa, and the forces emanating from Afar.

On the front of the Amhara region - from which the Tigrayans and their Oromo allies were advancing towards the capital, the government forces recaptured the towns of "Agbar", "Tinta" and "Duba" located on the road linking the rest of the region and the city of Kamblucha.

This government advance cut off the supply lines to the forces of the Tigray Liberation Front.

Thus, the Ethiopian army announced the end of the danger from Addis Ababa on the second of this December, and Ngusi Talahoun, the military commander in the town of “Shwarbet” in the “Showa” governorate, said that the military threat around the capital and strategic roads had been completely removed, and that government forces had tightened their control over the city. Showa Province.


incoming fluctuations

The Ethiopian war witnessed rapid fluctuations in the balance of power, after its outbreak on November 6, 2020;

The government forces regained the entire territory of the region in the operation called "Fordh al-Qanun" after 5 weeks, but this control did not last long.

In May 2021, the Tigray Liberation Front took control of "Mekele", the capital of its region, from which it advanced towards Amhara and Afar, and traveled about 300 km towards the capital, which is about 550 km from Tigray.

And in the third week of last November, the balance of power reversed again with the government's control and Tigray retreated from areas in Amhara.

In light of this, Sudanese military expert Ahmed Abdel Karim puts two possibilities for this retreat, and says, "It is certain that the government's acquisition of drones played a major role in attacking the gatherings and mechanisms of Tigray forces."

Abdul Karim's speech to Al Jazeera Net confirms what the official Ethiopian media reported about the army that it "used modern military techniques."

The expert added, "It seems that the new weapon - which the government had previously used at the beginning of the war - made Tigray change their strategy towards shrinkage in their territory to defend it against any government attempt to recover it, and they turned their sights from attacking the capital."


Is the war nearing its end?

Abdul Karim answers that the time is still early for the end of the war, and says, "It was ruled out completely for two reasons. The first is that the conflict turned from a confrontation between a government and rebels to confrontations between ethnicities. We witnessed the rush of women and men in Afar to the battlefield. Also, the nature of Tigray fighters is stubborn and does not give up. Any defeat easily.

As for Ephrem Haley, a former member of the Tigray Liberation Front and a resident of Khartoum, he told Al Jazeera Net, "It is difficult to end the war now. What the Amhara forces and their ally the Eritrean forces did in Tigray will not pass without reckoning."

At the same time, the Afrin and the Amharic accuse the Tigrayan forces of committing atrocities in their areas.

In a press conference held on Monday, the State Minister of the Ethiopian government, Salamawit Kasa, said that the elements of the Tigray Liberation Front had committed crimes that amount to genocide, and brutally killed hundreds of innocent civilians in the towns of Gashina and Ansukia Gemza and in other parts of the Amhara region, forcing people to flee.

She said "mass graves" had been found in the area.