China News Service, November 30. According to the "Europe Times" quoted French "Echos" report on the 30th, the French National Statistical Office recently released the latest population forecast, saying that by 2044, the French population will reach a peak of 69.3 million; and then gradually Decline, it will fall to 68.1 million in 2070.

Although the population has increased, the problem of aging will increase.

Due to the aging population of the "baby boomer" generation, the aging population over 65 will account for 29% of the country's total population by then, compared to only 20% at present.

Data map: French people receive catering services in a cafe in the center of Paris.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Yang

France’s ageing is accelerating?

　　By 2040, out of every 100 French population between the ages of 20 and 64, there will be 51 elderly people 65 and over, while in 2021 there will be only 37.

　　The latest forecast results have substantially revised the forecast results made in 2016.

Previously, the French National Bureau of Statistics had predicted that the French population will reach 76 million by 2070.

As for the change in the agency’s forecast, the main reason is: “The changes observed since 2014 have led to a downward revision of the average life expectancy.

　　In addition, the latest fertility rate has also declined compared to the fertility indicators used for forecasting in 2016,” explained Isabelle Robert-Bobée, head of the Census and Research Department of the French National Statistics Agency.

Data map: At an event in Paris, France, women threw their corsets into the air to raise people's awareness of breast cancer.

Image source: CFP Vision China

1.8 children per French woman

　　According to recent forecasts, by 2070, the average life expectancy of women will fall from 93 to 90 years, while the average life expectancy of men will be 87.5 years, compared with 90.1 years before.

　　In addition, the female fertility rate in 2021 will be 1.84, which will drop to 1.8 by then, compared to the previous forecast that it will rise to 1.95.

Robert Bobby pointed out: "The new crown epidemic is not considered a factor that affects long-term forecasts, and the trend of future average life expectancy growth is consistent with the situation observed before the epidemic."

Deteriorating ratio between employment and retirement

　　According to the French National Bureau of Statistics, 2044 will be a turning point in the evolution of France's demographic composition.

By this period, the population will rapidly increase by 1.9 million, reaching a peak of 69.3 million.

Among them, the population over 65 may account for 25%, compared with only 20% at present.

　　"It is almost certain that the ageing of the French population will continue until 2040," the Statistical Office emphasized.

This will lead to a deterioration in the ratio of incumbents to retirees.

According to calculations by the Bureau of Statistics, by 2040, for every 100 people between the ages of 20 and 64, there will be 51 elderly people 65 and over, while in 2021, there will be only 37.

This deterioration should be closely watched by the Conseil d'orientation des retraites.

More deaths than births

　　After 2044, the number of French residents will decline: from 2035, the number of deaths will exceed the number of births.

During the entire period, it is estimated that 70,000 people emigrate each year, which cannot make up for this "natural population deficit."

This will cause the French population to decrease by 45,000 people every year.

　　The analysis by age group shows that "by 2070, the age structure pyramid will have undergone great changes."

There will be 5.7 million more elderly people over the age of 75 than the current population.

On the contrary, the population under 60 will decrease by 5 million.

However, "compared with the 2016 forecast, the weight of the population of each age group relative to the total population has not changed," Robert Bobby pointed out.

　　By 2070, half of the French population will be in the 20-64 age group.

The elderly population over 75 years old will account for 18% of the French population, while the population under 20 years old will account for 20%, compared to the current 25%.

　　According to Mathieu Plane, an economist at the Observatoire français des conjonctureséconomiques (Observatoire français des conjonctureséconomiques): “The working-age population will decrease, and the aging population will also decrease, which will lead to potential economic growth. And the expenditures related to aging will be reduced.”