Warnings of things slipping into an explosive situation

The border escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is part of a dangerous pattern

• The war of Armenia and Azerbaijan is likely to continue.

  archival

• Putin mediates between Armenia and Azerbaijan with accurate calculations.

  archival

picture

A year after the outbreak of the second war between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the two countries finally revived the memory of the victims of the six-week war, which killed 6,500 people, during which Azerbaijan regained large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh that it had lost to the Armenian forces in the first war. that broke out in the early 1990s.

But of course there is still dissatisfaction on both sides with the outcome of things, so it was natural to expect the possibility of renewed tensions.

In a report published by the American magazine National Interest, Murad Muradov, deputy director of the Azerbaijan Topchubashov Research Center, and Simona Scotti, a researcher at the center, said that fierce fighting broke out on the 16th of last November between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in what is considered the most dangerous escalation since the end of the Second Karabakh War.

However, this time the situation got out of control not only in the Azerbaijani Karabakh region, but also along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

Unfortunately, the border clashes, in which artillery, armored vehicles and weapons of various calibres were used, caused deaths and injuries on both sides.

However, on the same day, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Both countries accused the other of being the ones who started the conflict.

In any case, Armenia lost two military positions that were captured by the Azerbaijani army.

Armenia called for Russian intervention under the terms of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance concluded by the two countries in 1997.

Secretary General of the Armenian National Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, also said that his country will resort to other international partners if the crisis is not overcome with the help of Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Moradov and Scotty added that the latest fighting broke out after a few weeks of provocations, which did not escalate into violence, but these provocations increased tensions in Karabakh and the neighboring border areas.

What happened is that an Armenian resident of Karabakh, Nurair Mirzoyan, in the early morning of November 13th, threw a grenade at an Azerbaijani checkpoint near the city of Shusha, located in the Lachin Corridor linking Karabakh with Armenia.

The Azerbaijani authorities issued a statement saying that an officer and two members of its armed forces were injured in the attack.

Constant tensions

Tensions continued to rise the following day, with reports of shooting incidents on both sides of the border line in the Kalbajar district.

Moradov and Scotty questioned why the most dangerous military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the end of the Second Karabakh War has erupted, although recent months have seen a reduction in tensions after clashes around Seif Lech Lake, located along the border, last May.

From Azerbaijan's point of view, a strong response to what happened on November 16 makes sense.

But what prompted the Armenian side to provoke the Azerbaijani forces, hardened by battles and well entrenched, to take revenge?

resource shortage

Most of the Armenian political and military experts now admit that their country simply does not have the necessary resources to enter into a serious conflict with Azerbaijan.

According to Moradov and Scotty, there can be two possible explanations for Armenia's actions:

The first is that the attack was intended to attract international attention to the south, and to act as a springboard to call for an international presence in the conflict zone.

The second explanation is that the escalation stems from a domestic power struggle between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's circle, bent on completing the peace process, and the military elite close to the former president, Robert Kocharyan, who hopes to discredit Pashinyan's government by being humiliated.

However, there are some indications that the second interpretation may contain some truth.

Those indications include anti-Pashinyan demonstrations in the capital Yerevan, the dismissal of Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan, the appointment of a pro-Parchinyan Sorin Babikyan to his place, and the prime minister's unexpected offer to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan without delay while the fighting subsided.

Moreover, whenever the Armenian government expresses its intention to achieve rapprochement with Azerbaijan, similar situations occur on the border.

This may also indicate that the Armenian government does not have complete control over its military apparatus.

Moradov and Scotty stated that the escalation that occurred on the 16th of November also revealed an important fact about Russia's continued unwillingness to help its former ally Armenia, and the recent failure of Yerevan to give written notice to the CSTO is a clear example of this.

While Moscow refuses to meet some of Azerbaijan's legitimate requests regarding Karabakh to hold a pressure card and win concessions from Baku, it also does not want to help Yerevan in the confrontation with Baku.

Moradov and Scotty concluded their report by saying that it should be noted that the absence of appropriate channels of communication between Baku and Yerevan slows down the peace process, creates unnecessary difficulties and leads to the loss of soldiers' lives, and that the recent decision to restore the line of direct communication between the two defense ministers was timely, as It is always the case, and it is to be commended.

• Most of the Armenian political and military experts now admit that their country simply does not have the necessary resources to enter into a serious conflict with Azerbaijan.

• Some see the escalation as stemming from a domestic power struggle between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's circle, which is determined to complete the peace process, and the military elite close to the former president, Robert Kocharyan, who hopes to discredit Pashinyan's government by being humiliated.

• The escalation that occurred on the 16th of November also revealed an important fact about Russia's continued unwillingness to help its former ally Armenia.

• While Moscow refuses to meet some of Azerbaijan's legitimate requests regarding Karabakh to maintain a pressure card and win concessions from Baku, it also does not want to help Yerevan in the confrontation with Baku.

Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news