Between the disruption of the government and the relationship with Saudi Arabia... What are the expected scenarios in Lebanon after Qardahi's resignation?

Beirut

- The resignation of Information Minister George Kordahi opened the door to many questions in Lebanon, due to its impact and results on the level of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, and its impact on the government sessions that have been suspended since last October, after Hezbollah and its allies demanded the Amal Movement and the Marada Movement to step down. Forensic investigator in the explosion of Beirut port, Judge Tariq Al-Bitar.

Analysts believe that there is an attempt to harmonize in parallel between Qardahi's resignation and the dismissal of Al-Bitar, and others separate them from each other, and this exacerbates concerns because the final solution is conditional on a basket of political settlements that take the nature of barter between the components of the conflicting authority at the internal and regional levels.

motives for resignation

Following previous statements in which he described the Yemen war as absurd, and provoked an unprecedented diplomatic crisis that amounted to a rupture with Gulf countries, Qardahi submitted his resignation today, Friday, in the context of what he called "the national interest" and "to prevent it from being used as a reason to harm Lebanon and the Lebanese in the Gulf."

However, Lebanon’s reliance on the resignation, with its timing and political context, was accompanied by a number of developments. Some linked it to the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to the Gulf, starting with the UAE and then Qatar, which was recently visited by Lebanese President Michel Aoun and then Saudi Arabia, especially since Macron asked the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikati. He pushed Qardahi to resign, as a goodwill card that he would carry with him to Riyadh to discuss the Lebanese file.

Some politicians believe that Mikati (left) obtained guarantees of the results of the resignation, specifically from Macron (French).

What backgrounds resignation?

The writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub believes that the reality of the current relationship between France and Saudi Arabia gave an impetus to the Lebanese-Saudi file, which was the resignation of Qardahi, accompanied by the contempt of all his Lebanese allies, specifically by his political reference, the head of the Marada movement, Suleiman Franjieh.

Therefore, Ayoub asserts that the resignation came at a French request, and "the French team that visited Riyadh in preparation for Macron's visit concluded that the starting point for discussing the Lebanese file was Qardahi's resignation."

As for France's goals, Ayoub links them to its inability, after more than two years, to make its Lebanese initiative a success. It only won the resignation of Qardahi after the formation of the government, and this is unfortunate for France in his opinion.

For his part, writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi (close to Hezbollah) links the resignation to several things, including that Mikati had a principled position since the escalation of the crisis, and he wanted to announce his resignation.

Mikati's travel to the Vatican and his contact with Macron - according to the same spokesman - "resolved the French president's quest to enhance his chance in Lebanon by his visit to Saudi Arabia, and that the resignation would be an incentive to find positives to build upon, as well as signals that President Aoun picked up during his visit to Doha."

Bazzi says that an internal road map was built last week by Aoun and Mikati, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (Hezbollah ally) played a major role in the issue of resignation.

between the government and Saudi Arabia

Once the resignation became a fait accompli, the problem revolved around its results, at the governmental and Gulf levels, and many called not to be overly optimistic, especially since Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan repeatedly stated that his country's position is not linked to Qardahi, but rather its problem is Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon and its support for the war. against it in Yemen.

To clarify Mikati's position, a member of his parliamentary bloc, MP Ali Darwish, sees Qardahi's resignation as an essential step to defuse the crisis, and it is expected to be completed with other steps to bridge the rift with Gulf countries, in the hope of reversing their diplomatic and economic boycott.

Darwish hints at Mikati obtaining guarantees of the results of the resignation, specifically from Macron, saying that the details may be revealed after his visit to Saudi Arabia.

For his part, Wassim Bazzi mentions that Bin Farhan’s statements and the way Saudi Arabia dealt with the resignation of former Lebanese Foreign Minister Charbel Wahba “indicate that the Kingdom exceeds its demands for resignations, and uses them as a whirlwind to show its true position on Lebanon’s geopolitical positioning in the region, and its view of Hezbollah.”

Therefore, Bazzi expresses his lack of optimism about the results of the resignation, because the reality of the regional clash exists, despite the resumption of the Vienna negotiations and the anticipation of the Saudi-Iranian negotiations, and because their course and effect are ambiguous, he said.

The same spokesman recalls that Macron had a previous experience in mediating with Saudi Arabia, after Lebanese political parties considered him a "detention" of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Riyadh in 2017, and his announcement at the time of the resignation of his government.

Bazzi doubted that Lebanon would be a top priority in his discussions in the Gulf, "in light of its efforts to solve France's huge and frozen interests in the Gulf ahead of the presidential elections."

For his part, Hussein Ayoub, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, suggested that the negatively rolling steps that Saudi Arabia were waving had become frozen after Qardahi's resignation, ruling out that his resignation would establish the return of Lebanese-Saudi relations to their normal course, because the issue goes beyond the survival or resignation of a minister, citing what he said. Bin Farhan stressed that the crisis is deeper than Qardahi, and expressed his conviction that the French mediation will not lead to what the Lebanese and the French hope for.

Some observers fear that Lebanon is facing a political and security reality that carries surprises that may topple both the parliamentary and presidential elections (Al-Jazeera)

What is the fate of government sessions then?

In parallel, there is talk in Beirut about formulating another settlement that would open the way for holding government sessions, on the basis that the next step for Qardahi’s resignation would be to find a way to remove Al-Bitar, at the request of Hezbollah and some of its allies. The way, especially that Speaker Berri called the deputies to a plenary session next Tuesday.

Here, Representative Ali Darwish explains to Al Jazeera Net that Mikati insists on not interfering in the work of the judiciary despite his announcement that the government will resume its sessions soon.

However, he does not deny that there are efforts and proposals to solve the crisis of the port investigation file, and that activating the Supreme Council is one of them, although in his opinion it needs a set of understandings between the parliamentary blocs.

As for Bazzi, he believes that activating the government's work is not linked to a trade-off between the cases of Al-Bitar and Qardahi, but the positive atmosphere for the resignation may open a window by addressing the Al-Bitar issue, as he put it.

And he talks about data related to serious efforts to settle the Al-Bitar case, and it is likely that the formal defense case presented two days ago by the attorneys of former Prime Minister Hassan Diab will be the beginning of the process.

On the other hand, Ayoub says that Qardahi's resignation from outside the cabinet, contrary to what was originally planned within the framework of securing a way out, means that the resignation file is separated from the faltering government file, and it is excluded linking them because "each of them has its own path, even if they meet at the borders of calming the Lebanese file." .

It is likely that the Lebanese political crisis will remain open as long as there is no way out for the investigation into the port bombing, in light of the files accumulating before the government, from the port to the Tayouneh events to the worsening economic, financial and living reality.

He said that the great fear is that Lebanon in the coming months will face a political and security reality that carries unpleasant surprises that may topple both the parliamentary and presidential elections.