The conflict which opposes Ukraine to Russia for several years now is it on the way to take a new course.

Kiev and its Western allies have been claiming for several weeks that Russia has massed troops on Ukraine's borders in anticipation of a potential invasion.

A project that Moscow formally denies.

As the U.S. and Russian foreign ministers are due to meet on Thursday to discuss it, here are five questions to understand this crisis.

  • What is happening on the border between Russia and Ukraine?

At the end of October, videos began circulating on social media claiming to show movement of Russian troops, tanks and other heavy weapons towards the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian officials say that Russia has deployed around 115,000 troops there.

Kiev and its Western allies accuse Moscow of providing troops and weapons to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine since the outbreak of armed conflict in that area in 2014, shortly after Russia's annexation of Crimea .

These accusations are vehemently rejected by the Kremlin.

On November 11, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington had "serious concerns about Russia's unusual military activities" in the area.

  • Why are tensions rising now?

In the past, Russia has already massed troops on the border with Ukraine, especially in April, when around 100,000 troops were deployed there.

Moscow assured to have withdrawn them shortly after the announcement of the first summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden.

Some analysts then said that Russia had shown its muscles to put itself in a position of strength as the meeting approached.

While Moscow and Washington are currently discussing the organization of a new summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, experts believe that Russia could resort to the same tactic.

Others claim that Russia was too sorry for Ukraine's use at the end of October of drones made in Turkey, a member of NATO, and thus sends a warning.

  • What does Vladimir Putin want?

The Russian president accused the West this week of fueling tensions with military exercises in the Black Sea and the delivery of modern weapons to Kiev, warning against crossing “red lines”. On Wednesday, he called for negotiations with the West with a view to obtaining "legal guarantees" against the extension of NATO to the east. Russia does not want Kiev to join this organization which it perceives as a threat.

In a long article published in July, Vladimir Putin accused Western countries of cultivating anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

The Russians and the Ukrainians are "one people", he wrote, stressing the "spiritual, human, civilizational bonds" which "have been woven for centuries".

"And we will never allow our historic territories and the people who are close to us and who live there to be used against Russia," he warned.

  • How do Westerners react?

Antony Blinken has repeatedly warned Moscow against an invasion.

London, NATO and the EU have issued similar warnings.

For its part, the Russian Foreign Ministry this week accused Kiev of having massed 125,000 soldiers in eastern Ukraine, the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov having affirmed not to exclude "that the Kiev regime could embark on a military adventure "against Russia.

Thursday, Antony Blinken and Sergey Lavrov are due to meet in Stockholm to discuss the conflict in Ukraine.

  • What are the chances of Russia invading Ukraine?

Russia has called the accusations against it "hysteria", with Vladimir Putin stressing this week that in the spring no invasion had occurred despite similar concerns.

Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, said he could "hardly imagine an invasion for no reason."

In 2008, the Russian army flew to the aid of the Georgian separatist Republic of South Ossetia, after a military intervention by Georgia, then chaired by Mikheil Saakashvili.

In five days, Russian forces routed the Georgian army.

At the end of November, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) compared the current situation in Ukraine with that in Georgia in 2008, calling on Mr. Zelensky not to make the same mistake as Mikheil Saakashvili.

"It cost him dearly," recalled the SVR.

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Russia: Intelligence denies any plans to invade Ukraine

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Ukraine: Vladimir Putin accuses the West of "aggravating" tensions

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