OECD: Italy's GDP towards 6.3%, then 4.6% in 2022, it is crucial to proceed with reforms

• Confindustria: in 2021 strong rebound in GDP but high prices penalize businesses and families

• EU, Gentiloni: real GDP in Italy at 6.2% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022

• Istat, Italian GDP grows by 6.1%, the gap with pre-crisis levels has been reduced

Share

01 December 2021 The strong 6.3% recovery achieved by Italy in 2021, with the exit from the main restrictions linked to the coronavirus, will gradually decrease in 2022 and 2023, with a respectively growth of 4.6% and 2.6 %: this is what we read in the OECD Economic Perspectives presented today in Paris. Worldwide, GDP will fall to 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. The same trend in the euro area, where GDP will go from 4.3% in 2022 to 2.5% in 2023. The rate unemployment rate in Italy will drop from 9.6% in 2021, to 8.9% in 2022 to 8.4% in 2023. While as regards the public debt it will fall from 154.6% of GDP in 2021 to 150.4% in 2022 to 148.6% in 2023: the decreasing trend continues even if "the high levels remain a source of potential vulnerability,together with the risks associated with Covid. "The deficit / GDP ratio also fell to 9.4% this year, 5.9% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023.

"Implementing structural reforms to digitize and streamline civil and bankruptcy justice systems, increase competition, especially in services, and increase the efficiency of public administration remains crucial, along with tax reform to reduce the wedge and complexity of taxes on labor ", underlines the OECD in the World Economic Outlook in reference to Italy. On the banking front, the organization also expects "a sharp increase in non-performing loans that could reduce credit growth, delay already lengthy legal procedures and increase associated losses".

The OECD slightly cuts the world's GDP estimates by two percentage points to 5.6% from 5.8% compared to the Spring Economic Outlook. Next year, the organization explains, growth will be 4.5% and then slow down to 3.2% in 2023. The performance of the US economy has also been revised down to 5.6% from 6.9 % in May (+ 3.7% in 2022 and + 2.4% in 2023). The Chinese GDP is also slowing, which this year should grow by 8.1% from 8.5% in May and by 5.1% both in 2022 and 2023. Better forecasts, on the other hand, for the GDP of the Eurozone which will grow 5.2% this year (+ 4.3% in May), 4.3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. The

and it is becoming increasingly unbalanced, "writes the OECD." Some areas of the global economy are recovering rapidly, but others risk falling behind, particularly low-income countries where vaccination rates are low and demand must still fully recover ". In many countries, the momentum deriving from the strong rebound after reopening due to persistent bottlenecks in supply chains, due to rising costs and the persistent effects of the pandemic, is attenuating, the OECD points out." “Stronger and more lasting inflationary pressures have emerged across economies at an unusually early stage of the cycle and there are labor shortages even though employment and hours worked have yet to fully recover.The costs of food and energy are rising sharply, with the most significant impacts on low-income families, as are prices in the sectors of durable goods where supply bottlenecks are most concentrated. These factors make the outlook more uncertain and raise significant political challenges. "The OECD predicts that" inflation will peak by the end of 2021, and then slow to levels consistent with the underlying pressures from rising labor costs. and the decline in spare capacity around the world. "These factors make the outlook more uncertain and raise significant political challenges. "The OECD predicts that" inflation will peak by the end of 2021, and then slow to levels consistent with the underlying pressures from rising labor costs. and the decline in spare capacity around the world. "These factors make the outlook more uncertain and raise significant political challenges. "The OECD predicts that" inflation will peak by the end of 2021, and then slow to levels consistent with the underlying pressures from rising labor costs. and the decline in spare capacity around the world. "

OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann also issued a stern warning about global disparities with respect to the vaccination campaign.

Inequality, which in addition to having consequences on health also have an impact on the economy.

"Vaccination coverage remains uneven, in developing countries but also here in Europe," Cormann said.

calling for "continuing efforts without respite" to vaccinate "the entire world population".

OECD chief economist Laurene Boone echoes "Omicron could pose a threat to recovery."