The southern part of the Indian Ocean island is hit by a drought unprecedented in decades, which has left more than a million people suffering from acute malnutrition.

In June, the World Food Program (WFP) called this crisis the first famine due to global warming caused by human activities.

A dimension on which the Malagasy authorities insist.

"My compatriots are enduring the toll of a climate crisis in which they did not participate," President Andry Rajoelina insisted in November during the COP26 in Glasgow.

Madagascan President Andry Rajoelina at the COP26 platform in Glasgow (United Kingdom) on November 2, 2021 Adrian DENNIS POOL / AFP

But that's not what the science says, according to the World Weather Attribution study, a network of scientists pioneering the attribution of extreme events to climate change.

During the last two monsoons (2019-2020 and 2020-2021), the amount of rain was 60% lower than normal in the Great South of Madagascar.

Such a rainfall deficit for 24 consecutive months (July 2019 to June 2021) has a one in 135 chance of occurring every year, according to WWA estimates.

People cross the bed of the Mandrare River, which is often dry during the southern winter, between April and October, near Amboasary Atsimo on the national road 13, in Madagascar, August 30, 2021 RIJASOLO AFP / Archives

But based on observations and climate models, the likelihood of such an event occurring "has not increased significantly" due to warming, the researchers say.

These results are compatible with the assessment of the UN climate expert group (IPCC) published in August.

This report indicates that in Madagascar, the predicted increase in droughts under the influence of warming should only occur from + 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era.

However, for the moment, the world has gained around 1.1 ° C.

"Our results are not surprising (...) I was more surprised by the fact that the UN labeled it famine caused by climate change," Friederike Otto, of the University of Ottawa, told AFP. 'Oxford.

Not automatic

Global warming is undoubtedly responsible for an increase in extreme weather events around the world, which are set to increase further.

And dramatic heat waves are increasingly attributable to climate change.

But for all extreme events, "climate change is one factor among others, sometimes important, sometimes small, or not at all", insists Friederike Otto.

Beneficiaries wait their turn to be consulted by Médecins sans frontières (MSF) staff who treat the most serious cases of malnutrition in the village of Befeno, commune of Marovato, Madagascar, September 2, 2021 RIJASOLO AFP / Archives

In this specific case, "if there is a part of climate change, it is minimal", assures AFP another author of the study, Robert Vautard, of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute.

Too small to be detectable.

The study therefore points out as responsible for this famine a drought linked to the chance of natural climatic variations, and the vulnerability of one of the poorest populations in the world.

In a region where rain is vital for subsistence agriculture and pastoralism, "it is difficult for local communities to cope with any prolonged drought," the study notes.

Helmine Monique Sija, in her fifties, boils raketa (cactus) to eat with her daughter Tolie, 10, on August 30, 2021, in the drought and hunger-stricken village of Atoby in southern Madagascar RIJASOLO AFP

"It is important not to automatically assume that any misfortune that occurs is linked to climate change," insists Friederike Otto, stressing that global warming is "not the only driver of inequality" in the world.

But just because this event is not attributable to warming does not mean that it is not real.

"They are still affected by a major drought two years in a row, with people forced to leave their land. A dramatic situation", insists Robert Vautard.

"And as we have relative confidence in the fact that droughts will increase in Madagascar at least from + 2 ° C, it still leads to worry and to try to limit climate change," he continues.

Children play near a dry well in the village of Ankilidoga, in southern Madagascar, August 31, 2021 RIJASOLO AFP

In this context, "tackling vulnerability in the region and improving living conditions is critical", argues Maarten van Aalst, director of the Climate Center of the Red Cross and Red Crescent.

Financing adaptation to the impacts of global warming is one of the most sensitive issues in international climate negotiations, with developing countries demanding more aid from rich countries to deal with climate change for which they are least responsible.

© 2021 AFP