Despite Iranian extremism, for these reasons, Washington is optimistic about the start of the Vienna negotiations

Washington -

With the launch of a new round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file in the Austrian capital, Vienna, the opinions of American experts on the outcomes of this first round of negotiations fluctuate, after a hiatus that extended for nearly five months.

While there is optimism about progress towards restoring most of the provisions of the old agreement, many right-wing and Republican commentators share their pessimism, repeating the points of contention between the Iranian and American parties, which have widened since the withdrawal of the administration of former President Donald Trump in 2018 from the agreement signed in 2015.

This pessimism stems from the intransigence of the administration of President Joe Biden and the failure to return to the nuclear agreement, as he pledged during his election campaign, on the one hand, and the arrival of Ibrahim Raisi to the presidency, representing the dominance of the hard-line movement inside Iran, on the other hand.

The arrival of Ibrahim Raisi to the presidency in Iran, representing a hard-line current that pushes to reinforce the pessimism of the Vienna negotiations (Al-Jazeera)

context of pessimism

Many US reports about the new round of negotiations have reinforced the chances of its failure, and some have even expected that Iran is not serious about returning to the 2015 agreement, and its continued pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Since Washington withdrew from the agreement, Iran has returned to developing its nuclear program at a time when the United States has re-imposed all the sanctions lifted by the 2015 agreement, in addition to more sanctions on various sectors of the Iranian economy.

The United States and Iran adopt a tough rhetoric of negotiations, amid signs from both sides that they are ready to withdraw from the new round of negotiations.

The Biden administration aims to return to the old agreement while prolonging its term, at a time when the American negotiating team confirms that it will not lift the sanctions imposed by President Trump again, unless Iran returns to full compliance with the terms of the agreement.

For its part, Iran aims to stop all sanctions, while raising the rates of enriching its uranium stockpile by 60%.

This reduces estimates of the time needed to make a nuclear bomb from a year - under the 2015 agreement - to a few months now.

On the other hand, there are 4 objective reasons for optimism about the resumption of negotiations between the two parties, at a time when most American reports and studies ignore the opportunity represented by diplomatic channels, especially after the Iranian and American presidents announced their support for resuming negotiations with the aim of restoring work on the 2015 agreement, despite fears about the prospects of failure.

Clarity of Iran's goal to lift sanctions

The US reports clearly ignore Tehran's realistic desire to lift sanctions.

Iranian officials clearly reiterate that Iran's return to the negotiating table has a clear and logical goal, which is to lift sanctions.

Of course, the Iranian government insists that it is not eager to lift the sanctions, and that despite the difficult economic situation, it is stable.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has repeatedly stated that lifting sanctions is a goal of his government, and during his election campaign, and then at his inauguration ceremony, he reiterated the centrality of this goal.

For his part, the Iranian Oil Minister pointed to a significant lack of investment in recent years, and that Iran needs a huge amount estimated at 160 billion dollars to put the energy sector back on track.

He said the sanctions have deprived Iran of $100 billion in oil revenues.

Changing the regional framework

Israel and some Gulf states strongly opposed reaching the nuclear agreement in 2015, and today Israel stands alone in its opposition to a similar new agreement, or the re-instatement of the old agreement.

Regional diplomacy has emerged as a target for Ibrahim Raisi's government, especially with regard to the normalization of his country's relations with the Gulf states after great tension in recent years.

Indeed, the past weeks witnessed diplomatic activity that brought together Tehran, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, each separately.

These developments contribute to the diplomatic push for the nuclear talks, as regional partners need to lift US sanctions on Iran to open up prospects for economic cooperation with Iran.

Hence, it was not surprising that the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council issued a joint statement in which they indicated support for restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the nuclear agreement with Iran), and the aspiration of the GCC countries to take advantage of the opportunities created by the easing of sanctions.

And the political integration of Iran with its neighbors may push the nuclear negotiations forward if Washington realizes the nature of the future relations of the two parties after the lifting of sanctions, with which it is expected that the opposition of some Gulf states to any US agreement with Iran will ease, in contrast to its vision of the 2015 agreement.

The joint statement of the GCC states and Washington indicated that strengthening economic relations with Iran - after the lifting of US sanctions on it - would be in the interest of the entire region.

2015 agreement experience

On the other hand, the experience of negotiation and the conclusion of the 2015 agreement, and the subsequent implementation of the mechanism for lifting sanctions on Iran, provide easy alternatives that can be returned to work on the technical part related to working to restore commitment to the previous nuclear agreement.

Thus, the negotiating teams will not start from scratch in the new Vienna round of negotiations, and neither Iran nor the United States will demand a fundamental renegotiation of all the terms of the agreement.

The two sides seek to get the old deal, but better, and to be more sustainable in time.

Iran and the six major negotiating countries have a more understanding that allows not to falter in easing sanctions, which is what the previous agreement suffered from when it was concluded in mid-2015.