Following the confirmation of the results of the census conducted last year, the number of single-seat constituencies for the House of Representatives election will increase by 10 in 5 prefectures, including 5 in Tokyo, while decreasing by 1 in 10 prefectures. "10 increase 10 decrease" has been confirmed.
The number of single-seat constituencies with a fixed number of 289 assigned to each prefecture in the lower house election is called the "Adams method", which is based on the results of last year's census and is more proportional to the population than the current calculation method. It is supposed to be reviewed in a way.
On the 30th, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced the final value of the census, which confirmed the number of single-seat constituencies assigned to each prefecture.
According to this, the number of single-seat constituencies will increase in five cities and prefectures, five in Tokyo, from the current 25 to 30, two in Kanagawa, one in Saitama, Chiba, and Aichi. Will increase.
On the other hand, the number of small constituencies will decrease by one in each of the 10 prefectures of Miyagi, Fukushima, Niigata, Shiga, Wakayama, Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi, Ehime, and Nagasaki.
As a result, the so-called "one-vote gap" will be less than double.
In addition, as a result of dividing the proportional representation fixed number 176 of the House of Representatives election into 11 blocks nationwide, it increases by 2 in the Tokyo block and 1 in the South Kanto block, while it decreases by 1 in the 3 blocks of Tohoku, Hokuriku Shinetsu, and China. increase.
Regarding the specific division of single-seat constituencies, the government council is proceeding with review work and is supposed to make recommendations by June next year, and from the House of Representatives election after the law was amended and enforced in response to this. The new constituency will be applied.
Tokyo increased by 5
By "10 increase and 10 decrease", the
single-
seat constituencies will
increase by 5 in Tokyo from 25 to 30,
increase by 2 in Kanagawa and increase from 18 to 20, and
increase by 1 in Saitama and Aichi, respectively. From 15 to 16,
▽ Chiba will increase by one, from 13 to 14.
On the other hand, in 10 prefectures, all decreased by one,
▽ Hiroshima from 7 to 6,
▽ Miyagi and Niigata from 6 to 5,
▽ Fukushima and Okayama from 5 to 4,
▽ Shiga, Yamaguchi, Ehime, Nagasaki.
Will change from
4 to 3 respectively, and
▽ Wakayama will change from 3 to 2.
In the proportional representation,
▽ Tokyo block increases by 2 to 19, South Kanto block increases by 1 to 23,
▽ Tohoku block decreases by 1 to 12, and Hokuriku Shinetsu block and China block also decrease by 1 to 10. ..
In the four prefectures of Shiga, Okayama, Yamaguchi, and Ehime, where the number of small constituencies is reduced by one, the LDP has monopolized seats in all the small constituencies in the previous House of Representatives election, and the next election. If the number of small constituencies is reduced by then, incumbent members will vie for official recognition, and it is expected that coordination will be difficult.
On the other hand, in Miyagi, Fukushima, and Niigata, if the Constitutional Democratic Party or independent members have won seats in multiple single-member constituencies and the constituency is changed, adjustments will be necessary.
Accelerate discussions on zoning
With the confirmation of "10 increase and 10 decrease", discussions on specific zoning will accelerate in the future.
Based on the "breaking news" of the census released in June, the "House of Representatives Election Division Council" established in the Cabinet Office has already begun to consider and will not be subject to review in the future. We will hear from all the governors, including the prefectures, in writing about the local circumstances.
The council is to compile a revised proposal and recommend it to the Prime Minister by June 25, next year.
Based on this, the government will submit a bill to the Diet to stipulate a new zoning, and if the law is enacted, it will be enforced after a well-known period, and the new zoning will be applied from the House of Representatives election announced thereafter. increase.
The allocation of the number of single-seat constituencies will not change until the results of the next major census in 2030, unless the number of members of the House of Representatives is revised.
However, the single-seat constituency is calculated based on the results of the next simple census to be conducted in 2025, and if the difference in one vote doubles or more, it will be reviewed within the relevant prefecture. Will be.
Expert "There is also a view that supports the overcrowding of Tokyo in a follow-up manner."
Professor Hiroshi Shiratori of Hosei University Graduate School, who is familiar with the election system, said that "10 increase and 10 decrease" was confirmed. On the other hand, there may be a view that it is a follow-up endorsement of the overcrowding in Tokyo. "
"It is also a problem between politics and administration, and from an administrative point of view, it is desirable for community development to develop as an area or local government. Electoral districts will be set up. As a result of correcting the one-vote gap, there is a risk that the administration will be divided. "
On top of that, "It goes without saying that it is desirable for the Election Commission and others to proactively disclose information and disseminate information to voters regarding the complicated division of elections. Political parties and politicians will also respond to the new division and work with local residents. It is important to cultivate public opinion while actively engaging in dialogue. In some cases, it may be necessary to collaborate with politicians in the neighboring constituencies from the perspective of the overall development of divided divisions and regions. Isn't it? "
Liberal Democratic Secretary General Motegi "Needs considerable adjustment"
Secretary General Motegi of the Liberal Democratic Party told reporters, "First of all, I would like to pay close attention to the ongoing deliberation on the division of wards. I want to work on it. "
On the other hand, regarding the adjustment of candidates within the party when "10 increase and 10 decrease" is realized, "a considerable adjustment will be required, such as the increase of 5 constituencies in Tokyo. Watch the work of the government council. At the same time, I would like to think about the future in parallel. "