Aging in Germany: the doubling of immigration advanced as a solution

If Germany's aging continues at the current rate, 6 million people could be missing from the labor market by 2060. © AFP - JENS SCHLUETER

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2 min

Demographic forecasts point to a significant drop in the number of working people in the medium term in Germany, hence the risk of bankruptcies and relocations.

According to a study presented this Tuesday, November 23, a net migration of 400,000 people per year is necessary by 2060 to maintain the current number of workers. 

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With our correspondent in Berlin,

Pascal Thibaut

Without any immigration, the number of working people in Germany would drop from 47 million today to 31 million in forty years. This unrealistic assumption nevertheless reflects the scale of the challenges for the German economy. Of course, companies can react, develop the use of robots, their productivity or relocate activities. The work of women and that of the elderly can be increased. But these measures can only mitigate at the margin a profound development. 

For researchers at the IAB institute, attached to the federal employment agency, only greater immigration can help tackle the problems to come.

If the average of the last thirty years - a net migratory balance of 200,000 people per year - were to continue, six million people would be missing from the labor market in 2060 compared to today.

Annual immigration is expected to double in the future, according to Johannes Fuchs, one of the authors of the study, aware of the limits of this proposal. 

"Not necessarily realistic"

“

Within the European Union, demographic forecasts are comparable to ours,”

emphasizes Johannes Fuchs.

It is not from these countries that the necessary migration will come.

Germany is already trying to attract non-Europeans.

We would need 400,000 people per year, but this is not necessarily realistic and the number of workers will undoubtedly decrease.

 "

Researchers do not discuss the political and societal consequences of significantly higher immigration.

The

future government

wants to modernize nationality law and develop economic immigration with a points system. 

► 

To read also: Merkel, time to take stock: in Cologne, the realization of an assumed migration policy

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  • Germany

  • Immigration

  • Employment and Work