Asia expert Michael Beckley:

INTERVIEW.. China will remain the most powerful country in Asia for the foreseeable future

Michael Beckley.

archival

The American Enterprise Institute interviewed its visiting fellow, Michael Beckley, also associate professor at Tufts University and an expert on Southeast Asia, on US-China competition, long-term trends in the balance of power between these two countries, US alliances and grand strategy. US economy and defense.

America's policy in East Asia.

Here are excerpts from this interview:

■ You mentioned on one occasion that the tension between the United States and China will peak in the next ten years.

What do you expect to happen during this period?

Will there be a lot of this aggression?

■■ We must bear in mind that China is not just a superpower, it is also what we call a vengeful superpower.

During this period, the Chinese Communist Party will assume that most Chinese believe that there is lost Chinese territory to be restored at some point, which was unjustifiably wrested from China during a century of humiliation.

Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Southeast China Sea are, in the minds of most Chinese, Chinese territory.

And what worries me most is that the CCP is looking ahead and saying, well, now we've acquired a very formidable regional army, and in the future we won't have much money because our population is getting old, and it really looks like our competitors are starting to work against us.

When China looks at the East China Sea, Japan plans to double its defense spending and allow the US aircraft carrier to fly its F-35s.

And when they look at the South China Sea, those countries are weaker, but not to be underestimated. Vietnam has a long history of fighting giants, Vietnam is building a very formidable coastal defense system using Russian missiles and submarines, and Indonesia has increased its defense spending by 20% in the few years. past, to build a naval fleet to respond to China.

So I'm worried because the Chinese will say, 'We have to take back these lost lands before they are taken from us forever, and we have to act now.'

■ I think one of the things that will worry China is the demographic change of the population: massive aging with a small number of younger workers.

How do you expect China to adapt to this?

■■ I don't think they would allow the naturalization of immigrants, because that would be very disruptive to society, and China is already adopting a much more ethnic concept of what it means to be Chinese.

Second, they will switch to automation.

This is one of the many reasons why they would get so engrossed in things like AI robots, because they would need an army of machines to do the work that the aging population wouldn't be able to do.

I think these two main options are really suitable for China.

■ Much of US foreign policy toward China revolves around viewing China as a threat to its hegemony.

But if China has peaked, how do you think US policy will change to deal with a falling China instead of a rising one?

■■ America doesn't care about whether or not China will rise for at least the next 10 years.

And it's not so much about who's bigger in terms of GDP at this point, it's about whether or not China can take over Taiwan, and will it try to build 5G networks across Eurasia, so it can access the data of all the people in these countries, And to make those countries rely on Chinese technology instead of American?

These are really the main questions.

■ In the next 10 years or so, if China continues to stagnate and collapse, do you expect other Asian countries to take the place left by the collapsed China?

If so, who are these countries?

■■ First of all, I do not believe that China will fall or disappear, and I do not believe that China is a declining power.

I believe it is a peak power and will remain the most powerful country in Asia for the foreseeable future, even if its economy is stagnant.

All of these Southeast Asian countries I don't think any of them are strong enough to become dominant, but I can see a much more competitive multipolar system in East Asia.

• I do not believe that China will fall or disappear, and I do not believe that China is a declining power. 

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