What are the "US-China New Cold War" America and China thinking? Correspondent commentary

A summit meeting will be held between President Biden of the United States and President Xi Jinping of China.

Although online, this is the first face-to-face meeting between the two since the inauguration of the Biden administration in January.

What is the focus of attention as the US-China relationship has cooled to the point of being called the "New Cold War" and tensions in the Taiwan Strait have increased?

Correspondents will explain in an easy-to-understand manner.

(Washington bureau, Yu Takagi bureau chief, China General Bureau, Yoshihiro Oyama, reporter)

What is the focus of the meeting?

(Mr. Takagi) The

point is "stabilization" of US-China relations in the security field.

As tensions in the Straits of Taiwan increase, the first question is whether we can build a minimum of trust so that accidental accidents do not develop into collisions.

In the background, in 2001, a US military reconnaissance aircraft and a Chinese military fighter plane came into contact with each other over the South China Sea near Hainan Island in China, and the Chinese military aircraft crashed. There is a sense of danger that it may lead to.

What is the danger that tensions in the Taiwan Strait will lead to military conflicts?

"I'm not worried about the conflict," Biden said in November.

However, US military personnel are becoming more vigilant about the Taiwan Strait contingency.

Former Indo-Pacific Army commander Davidson was noted at a parliamentary hearing in March, warning that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan "may become apparent by six years (2027)."

The Biden administration, like successive administrations, has a "one China" policy that recognizes China's position in claiming that "Taiwan is part of China," but is increasing its involvement in Taiwan.

Since it is believed that if China invades Taiwan, the United States is likely to intervene militarily and develop into a conflict, there is a debate about how to increase deterrence to discourage China from invading. It is rapidly becoming active in the United States.

How will China respond?

(Reporter Oyama) For

China, the involvement of the Biden administration in Taiwan, which is one of the most important "core interests," cannot be neglected.

We know that China will come at a great price if it decides to use force against Taiwan, but since the movement of Taiwan independence cannot be overlooked, it puts military pressure on the Taiwan side and the risk of accidental collision is increasing.

For that reason, it will be interesting to see if this meeting will help alleviate the conflict with the United States.

Is the US-China conflict only the Taiwan issue?

(Washington, Takagi bureau chief)

Not only that.

The United States has

▼ China's rapid increase in military power and movements to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and South China Sea,

▼ Unfair economic practices such as infringement of intellectual property rights and preferential treatment of state-owned enterprises,

and

▼ Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Hong Kong I am

particularly concerned about

the situation surrounding human rights and democratization

.

Moreover, what the United States is most wary of is that China is becoming a threat to America's position as a model for democracy.

President Biden has positioned it as a "competition between democracy and tyranny" and hides a sense of caution that the international order, which has always been centered on the United States after the war, will collapse and the international influence and interests of the United States will be impaired. not.

<American involvement and development of China>

Looking back on history, the American side has approached China.

With the involvement of the American side in China, under an American-led order, China grew to become known as the "factory of the world," and the "Lehman shock" drove the world economy in crisis.

On the other hand, China's military power will increase, its expansion into the East China Sea and South China Sea will become more active, and friction with neighboring countries will increase.

Under these circumstances, Mr. Xi Jinping became the head of the party, and in Japan, he strengthened the leadership of the party through speech control and so on.

In addition, we announced the "One Belt, One Road" giant economic zone concept and "Made in China 2025," which aims to be the world's top level in the high-tech field.

And since the outbreak of the "trade war" in 2018, when the former Trump administration imposes high tariffs on imports from China and the Chinese side also takes retaliation measures against it, the term "new cold war" will be used. became.

How does the Biden administration see China?

(Washington, Takagi Bureau Chief)

We are positioning it as the "largest competitor".

The premise is said to be the lessons learned from the "engagement policy" that continued until the Obama administration.

The United States tried to change China's behavior against the international order by strengthening relations with China, but could not stop the islands of the South China Sea from becoming military bases.

The Biden administration has significantly strengthened its "hard stance toward China" compared to the Obama administration, which was the same Democratic Party administration, and it shares that point with the former Trump administration.

Campbell Indo-Pacific Coordinator of the NSC = National Security Council, who oversees Asian policy under the Biden administration, has stated that "the era of widespread involvement in China is over. From now on,'competition' will be the main norm." ..

What are the keywords to understand the Biden administration's policy toward China?

It's a "three Cs".

We are competing where we should compete, and we are trying to build relationships where we can work together in areas where we can cooperate, such as climate change countermeasures.

The US-China relationship is divided into three categories: "cooperation," "competition," and "confrontation."

And another keyword is "responsible competition".

It is based on competition, but emphasizes that it should not be escalated in a dangerous direction.

What do you do specifically?

With China expected to overtake the United States on an economic scale by around 2030, the Biden administration is trying to collaborate with allies and friends to compete with China in a so-called "comprehensive power."

To that end, we are trying to build a multi-layered “siege against China” by strengthening multilateral frameworks and bilateral relations and having each play a strategic role.

The core is the following framework.

● G7 (Politics / Economy)

● Quad (Climate change / Infectious disease control, etc.)

● Okas (Military)

● D10 (Democracy) G7 + Korea / Australia / India (D = Democracy)

Above all, the world's third largest economic power Expectations for Japan, which has cutting-edge technological capabilities, are increasing.

We would like to deepen cooperation not only in terms of diplomacy and security with Japan, but also in terms of so-called "economic security" such as building a semiconductor supply chain, developing electric vehicles, AI = artificial intelligence, and quantum computers. It's an idea.

How does China, on the other hand, see the United States?

(Reporter Oyama, Directorate General of China)

China considers the United States, which has continued its "engagement policy", to be "unreasonable" because it has taken a unilaterally strong stance since the previous administration of Trump.

I also believe that the United States should have made great profits through the development of bilateral relations through trade and investment.

In China, the current attitude of the United States is hindering its own development.

And I take it as showing an attitude to challenge the Chinese system.

For China, maintaining a one-party system of the Communist Party is of utmost importance, and we will never accept or eliminate any threatening movements.

In China, patriotic movements are spreading among the people, and there is an atmosphere that is willing to confront the United States.

Will China Challenge America-led Order?

Xi Jinping's leadership has repeatedly emphasized that "China does not seek hegemony. It is hostile to the United States and has no intention of replacing it."

However, we cannot accept this at face value.

President Xi has set the goal of "building a modernization power of socialism" by the middle of this century, which marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the country.

What is a "modernization power of socialism"?

It is also regarded as the goal of becoming the world's most powerful country beyond the United States.

China believes that Western systems such as democracy are not universal, and that the Chinese way is superior.

In an article distributed by the state-run Xinhua News Agency in conjunction with the important Communist Party conference "6 Chuzenkai," "By 2035, the great power of the Orient (China) will be modernized, and the world map of humankind will be thoroughly repainted. "Ending the historical perception that'modernization is westernization'and offering a whole new option," he points out, suggesting that China has "ambitions" to challenge the existing world order.

Since the spread of the new coronavirus, China seems to be strengthening these claims, taking great confidence in its swift restraint with the force of an "authoritarian nation".

What does China want from the United States?

It is clear that China's thinking is clearly understood in July, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman on three points: "I can never give up on this."

Both are of the core interest of China.

The first is the one-party rule of the Communist Party, a demand not to challenge or overthrow China's socialist system.

The second means to stop oppressing Chinese tech companies, such as sanctions on telecommunications equipment giant Huawei.

And the third is a request to stop interfering with the issues surrounding Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, Hong Kong, and even Taiwan.

China is very nervous that growing calls for independence and democratization in these regions will lead to national division.

Will the US-China conflict continue?

(Washington, Takagi bureau chief).

I think it's likely that a cold relationship will last for a long time.

This is because the United States has a remarkable political division, but in taking a strict attitude toward China, a bipartisan agreement has been formed, and there is a possibility that China will compromise due to the issues of democracy and human rights that the United States emphasizes. Because it is low.

In the United States, there will be an interim election in the fall of next year (2022) and a presidential election in the fall of 2024, and that year will enter the "election mode".

President Biden has been suffering from sluggish approval ratings since the summer, and if he continues to deal with domestic issues that are directly linked to elections, he may not be able to exert sufficient leadership in China policy. there is.

(Reporter Oyama, Directorate General of China) For

China, the United States is a country that stands in the way of China's "ambitions."

For that reason, we would like to continue dialogue with the United States in the wake of global issues such as climate change issues and avoid total conflict.

However, there is no possibility that China will make concessions to the United States due to problems involving "core interests" such as "three demands", and it is expected that the conflict will continue for a long time in the future.

The United States will also enter the political period, but in China, the Communist Party Congress will be held once every five years in the latter half of next year, and for President Xi, who is aiming for an unusual third term as the party's top, the relationship with the United States But it's an important time when we can't fail.