Introduction to the report
Yesterday, Sunday, Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi submitted his candidacy file for the presidential elections to the headquarters of the Electoral Commission in the southern city of Sebha, officially returning to the spotlight after years of working in secret.
Simultaneously, Saif al-Islam is rallying his supporters from the tribes loyal to his father, Muammar Gaddafi, hoping to take over the presidency.
Although his path to power will not be paved with roses, in light of intense competition with the forces that overthrew his father’s rule more than a decade ago, and in light of him being still wanted by the International Criminal Court, the division that Libya is experiencing may give Gaddafi the son an opportunity to return he would not have dreamed Its just years ago.
Report text
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the late Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi, regained media momentum with his sudden appearance recently in an interview with the American newspaper "The New York Times", after a decade-long disappearance since the last scene of him being led away in handcuffs a month after his father was killed by rebels. The man thought that he would rule Libya one day, succeeding his father and following the tradition of succession that began to expand in the Arab world during the first decade of the new millennium. The hands of a tribe from Zintan after amputating three fingers of his right hand, which he threatened the Libyans with at the beginning of the revolution, and then he was imprisoned for about six years, during which everything changed in Libya.
Suddenly, the prisoner, the enemy of yesterday, became the friend of today, the expected leader of tomorrow, and the owner of the mission to unite the Libyans after division and conflict, and who is able to achieve broad reconciliation between the warring parties to unite the entire Libyan soil.
On the other hand, this is the last opportunity for the Gaddafi family for the return of brothers and cousins to the country again after years of diaspora and alienation, and a glimmer of hope for his "Qadhadhfa" tribe to restore their dignity that was overthrown by the February 14 revolution and turned them into strangers after they ruled the country for more than four decades. Undisputed.
Gaddafi's heir and the temptation of power
Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi was not the same as he appears now in 2011. He did not have that gray-haired beard, nor that look that indicated a severe defeat that he drank bitterly about, nor that wariness of tomorrow, with the possible judicial prosecution awaiting him by the International Criminal Court. He was accused of committing crimes against humanity during the Libyan revolution.
Saif al-Islam is the second son of Gaddafi's nine sons, and he is the most fortunate among them, and although he did not take any official position, many considered him the most influential person in the country, and the legitimate heir to his father's rule, while he saw the West in his elegant dress, his free English tongue, and his reformist views. Contrary to his father's policy, their only way to transform Libya from anti-Western tyranny to liberalism is without a comprehensive revolution.
The great interest that Saif al-Islam received in the West at the time was not due to his study of economics at the University of London, or his mediation of his father Gaddafi’s abandonment of the idea of acquiring a nuclear weapon along the lines of Pakistan (which owed him the initial funding for its secret project at the time), nor even because of his prominent role in Persuading his father to pay compensation for the bombing of an American plane in the skies of Scotland in 1988. The main motive for the Europeans getting close to the man was only oil, which is the same reason that prevented them from overthrowing the Gaddafi regime. Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, amounting to 48 billion barrels. Besides, shale oil reserves amount to 26 billion barrels, which are strength cards that Gaddafi bargained with the West to protect his regime, especially since no country can easily replace Libya's oil share (1.6 million barrels per day).
Muammar Gaddafi (right) and Saif al-Islam
With the outbreak of the Libyan revolution, the Libyan colonel calculated his calculations, confident that the West would not interfere to topple his regime for fear of repeating the scenario that occurred after the Iranian revolution in 1979, and the interruption of supplies of two million barrels of oil later led to the doubling of prices in the global market. Gaddafi's plan seemed largely successful, especially after the Security Council ignored the Arab League's calls for an air embargo on Libya due to its leader's use of heavy weapons and aviation to bomb peaceful demonstrators, and the European Union coldly discussed the repercussions of the situation in Libya on the economies of industrialized countries. However, events accelerated and everything changed after a month and a half as a result of the rebels’ control of the oil fields and ports, especially after they pledged to fulfill obligations and contracts for oil exports, a sign that the major countries accepted with acceptance, and later formed an international coalition to remove Gaddafi from his throne (1).
These events came as a surprise to Gaddafi and his son alike. In March 2011, an international coalition under the umbrella of NATO began a military intervention in Libya with the participation of the United States, France, Britain and Italy. The Arab countries, Qatar and the UAE, also participated in a policy pursued by the two countries to topple the Libyan president, who pursued a counter policy. For the interests of the Gulf camp at that time. In contrast, Russia and Turkey opposed military intervention, viewing it as a direct threat to their economic interests that culminated in the Gaddafi era. In an interview with a Russian journalist three months before his father’s assassination, Saif al-Islam said, commenting on the military intervention: “It was an important lesson for us and for everyone. Many countries like North Korea and Iran tell us: Have you discovered your mistake? You have given up weapons of mass destruction and closed your program to develop Ballistic missiles, and here's the result. So what's the lesson? Be strong, and never trust the West. They changed their attitude toward us overnight."
But the lesson that Saif al-Islam gained with the loss of his father’s throne, he followed with a fatal mistake by rushing to join the brutal military campaign launched by Gaddafi’s army against the revolutionaries standing at the gates of Tripoli in order to reach the Palace of Government. As the supposed successor to the regime, Saif al-Islam came out on a famous television broadcast in conjunction with the intensification of the revolution, waving his finger and threatening: “There will be civil war in Libya, we will kill each other in the streets, all of Libya will be destroyed, and we will need 40 years to reach an agreement on how run the country, and everyone will want to be president or emir.” Ten years after Libya entered the dark tunnel, Saif al-Islam’s prophecy seems to some to be a reality that drives them to nostalgia for his father’s tyranny, who gave them electricity for free and provided them with interest-free loans from banks, and these are the memories of the bygone years that give Gaddafi the son now an opportunity to reach a throne that everyone thought was gone. Forever after February 2011 and beyond.
Haftar and Al-Sarraj.. to be victorious by the mistakes of your enemies
Ahmed howitzer blood
The overthrow of Gaddafi, and then his assassination in October 2011 along with three of his sons, changed the fortunes of his clan and his allies from the bliss of power to the distinction between wanted and exile, captive and dead.
However, the formation of the Transitional National Council (the interim parliament), which gained international recognition, did not succeed in restoring the desired internal security.
It seems that Saif al-Islam was not alone in bearing pessimistic predictions of the revolution that overthrew his father's rule. From his apartment in Cairo, "Ahmed Qadhaf al-Dam", Gaddafi's cousin and special envoy, bet that "there will be no peace without Qadhadhfa".
Libya quickly entered a turbulent path after its revolution, which gave the Qadhadhfa an opportunity on a golden platter. The revolutionaries refused to surrender their weapons, which they seized from the army stores, and formed militias that took control of the tribal system, and then Libya quickly turned from tyranny to a dysfunctional democracy. The Interim National Transitional Congress failed to complete the draft constitution, and the Libyan parties did not agree on the date of the presidential and parliamentary elections. When the legal period for the work of the National Congress ended, it decided to extend its mandate, and then put in place a law to elect the House of Representatives, which became entrusted with setting the constitution. The two most powerful blocs in the country faced each other in 2014, the liberal bloc, which garnered the highest percentage of votes, and the Islamist bloc, led by the Justice and Construction Party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood), which won 23 of the 200 seats.The loss of losses would have continued, had it not been for the ruling issued by the Supreme Court (its rulings may not be appealed) to abolish Parliament and confirm the work of the conference.
In 2015, Haftar launched Operation Dignity, under the slogan "fighting terrorism" and restoring stability, and in the meantime, Libya was divided into a kind of two states.
In the midst of the growing conflict, the Islamic State emerged, establishing its nascent rule in some cities with Islamist leanings, and in the meantime, Khalifa Haftar, the dissident Libyan general who had previously participated in the coup of his leader Gaddafi, and then chose to live in self-exile in the United States of which he holds, also appeared. Before returning to the Libyan arena and imposing himself politically and militarily, and succeeding in attracting regional and international allies, they looked with suspicion at the possibility of the Muslim Brotherhood taking the lead in the political scene. Until early 2014, Haftar did not have any prominent presence in the Libyan political scene, until he attempted a coup through a televised statement, and announced the freezing of the work of the National Congress and the government, but his television coup did not bear fruit, and his nascent and fragile grip was limited to eastern Libya, while Tripoli eluded him. , the capital and the most important city, but he came up in the following year with an inspiring idea that formulated his political project to reach power.
In 2015, Haftar launched Operation Dignity, under the slogan "fighting terrorism" and restoring stability. Meanwhile, Libya was divided into what looked like two states, one in the east and the other in the west, following the Constitutional Court's decision to nullify the elections, a chaos that Haftar could have benefited from had it not been for the The United Nations intervened to protect the interests of European countries, and to agree on the most important political settlement in the history of the crisis represented in the Skhirat Agreement, which resulted in the formation of the Government of National Accord, which gained international recognition. However, Haftar and the divided parliament refused to recognize the government.
Meanwhile, Saif al-Islam received a general amnesty from his death sentence, and began to be presented as a leader who could redraw the map of the country with the support of the major Libyan tribes.
Gaddafi’s son benefited from the complexity of the situation in Libya, especially after Haftar announced in the spring of 2019 his battle to overthrow the Libyan capital, Tripoli, underestimated the strength of the Government of National Accord, a war that turned life in Libya into hell by destroying infrastructure, interrupting electricity services, and closing oil ports, Delaying employee salaries.
In a state of internal polarization, and the deterioration of the situation due to the war, Saif al-Islam's prophecies seemed fresh in everyone's minds.
"Can you imagine? The men who were my guards (in prison) are now my friends," the man says in his recent interview with the New York Times, referring to his release, in preparation for elections that might give him legitimacy.
The loyalty of the clans..Saif al-Islam handed over to power
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi benefited from the mistakes of his father and his people. He learned from his father not to trust the West, and he learned from observing the political arena that reorganizing the force begins with building tribal alliances on the ground. Gaddafi believes that Haftar, the most powerful man in the east, has become a hostage of the Russian "Wagner" company, along with a number of allies who are originally the creation of the Gaddafi regime and former leaders of his army. The situation in the Libyan West is not much different, where the interim government is also under the control of the militias based in Tripoli and Misurata, which summarizes the state of the Libyan state since 2011. In reality, it was ruled by only a group of armed men, which means that any peace in the country will remain fragile. Waiting for a renewal of the war at any time.
In light of this bitter harvest, Saif al-Islam's chances of gaining power seem to be negligible, after he succeeded in reformulating his relationship with the Libyan tribes in the south and east, and his "Qadhadhfa" tribe, which is the largest and most well-armed Libyan tribe, regained its influence over the entire southern region. And her sons regained the government jobs they lost after the fall of Gaddafi. In the wake of the Tripoli war, the Qadhadhfa tribe split from Haftar’s forces, and formed an important part of the narrative of his defeats, a major crisis that Haftar faces, especially since the base of his supporters in the east are the supporters of the former regime. In addition to the "Qadhadhfa", Gaddafi's son enjoys the support of the "Al-Baraasa" tribe, from which his mother hails, also in eastern Libya, which previously mediated efforts to release him, secure his movements and make contacts with other tribes.
The emergence of Saif al-Islam as a political force from his hiding place, prompted the Government of National Accord in the past to search for him through the Special Deterrence Force, affiliated with the Ministry of the Interior, in partnership with the Turkish forces present in Libya in accordance with the security agreement signed between the two parties. The duo led, in vain, a qualitative operation to search the Western Mountain region, where the headquarters of the "Zintan" tribe, under which Saif al-Islam lived, in preparation for his arrest and surrender to the International Criminal Court. Then the latest development came with what Saif al-Islam repeatedly announced through his speakers in the French capital about his intention to run for the presidential elections, which completely threatens the parties to the conflict in the East and West. Concerns about Gaddafi’s son’s intentions were clear in the statement of the Speaker of Parliament, Aguila Saleh, about the parliament’s consideration of the draft law on candidacy for elections, stressing that he would not allow the candidacy of a person convicted by the criminal court, in an explicit reference to Saif al-Islam.
In contrast to the support that Saif al-Islam receives at home, Gaddafi enjoys potential support from international and regional powers, led by Russia, Italy, France and Egypt. The circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the biggest loser from the fall of Gaddafi, made public moves to bring his son back to political life. The expansion of Saif al-Islam's sphere of influence appeared in the delegation he sent in 2018 to discuss a political settlement out of the crisis, which Russia promoted by hosting the delegation on "Russia Today" channel, as they represented Gaddafi's son, one of the parties to the Libyan reconciliation. In addition to Russia, Italy surprised everyone by declaring that it did not mind the arrival of Gaddafi's son to the presidency of Libya through elections, at a time when reports revealed that Egyptian intelligence had contacted Saif al-Islam.
The return of Saif al-Islam seems confusing to Haftar, whose allies are most likely inclined towards the return of the old regime itself, and not one of its henchmen, especially since the man suffered a great loss by being unable to enter Tripoli, and the deepening of his relations with the Emirates, compared to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which have reservations about a number of Abu Dhabi positions. Abu Dhabi recently, as well as the deepening of his relations with Russia, which neither Italy, Britain or the United States like. On the other hand, the man in the latter represents a more acceptable face compared to the Tripoli government, which is also linked to the faltering political Islam in the region, and also linked to the uncomfortable Turkish military presence of France and Europe.
We do not yet know to what extent Saif al-Islam will succeed in returning to the scene in front of the rare agreement of the Parliament of the East and the government of the West to reject it, and to what extent Egyptian and Italian support and Western acceptance can tip the scales in Libya.
However, not a few sectors of the Libyan people seem to be on their way to siding with an old face instead of the new faces that failed in the east and west to meet the demands of their revolution, even if that face was the son of a president who overthrew him a decade ago, cut off his fingers and dipped his nose in the dirt.
Indeed, perhaps for that reason alone, some people are ready to accept his return, since he has already tasted what Libyans can do when they are angry, he will not be able to easily raise a finger to threaten them again.