Analysis: "The Governor of the Riksbank was completely wrong, it would turn out"

- It's temporary.

The above is convenient to draw on in connection with many uncomfortable facts.

As a child when parents wonder about declining school results, as an oil giant or a comfortable consumer when climate scientists talk about extreme weather, as stock savers when the stock market trembles for one reason or another.

Or, as a central bank when it comes to inflation.

In the US, prices started to tick up at the beginning of the year.

- It is temporary, said the central bank governor.

Completely wrong, it would turn out

There were good reasons to believe that.

The vaccine was here and the world economy had kicked off after the deepest downturn since World War II.

It was clear that there were large fluctuations in the statistics when compared with the year before when much stood still and the oil price collapsed.

"The effect wears off after the summer" was, for example, an intermediate heading in my analysis on March 17 this year, where I obediently referred to "the US Federal Reserve expects inflation to be 2.4 percent this year".

Completely wrong, it would turn out.

Instead, inflation has climbed to 6.2 percent, according to the latest announcement last week.

- It is temporary, still says the Governor of the Central Bank of the United States, as well as the Governor of the Riksbank in Sweden.

The word is banned in Atlanta

But in Atlanta, the head of the Federal Reserve's regional bank has for several months banned the word "transient" from the bank.

During a speech a month ago, he had placed a glass jar in front of him marked "transitory" where during ongoing speeches he did as everyone else in his office, and put down a dollar bill for each time he used the word.

Prices are rising widely in both the US and Sweden.

In the last month, it has been above all rising prices for tickets to everything from theater performances to sports competitions that have increased inflation.

It's probably a lot about lifting the restrictions.

Seen throughout the year, more expensive electricity, petrol and diesel are behind the increase in inflation.

A large number of other goods have, in large parts of the world, started to become more expensive due to the lack of various components and the collapse of the global transport system.

Right now there will be delays and a lack of everything from August-nominated books for Christmas in Sweden, to racing bikes for the participants in the Tour de France.

Gets more expensive also in Sweden

The US Federal Reserve chief believes that logistics problems will persist for a long time to come, and that they could lead to further price increases.

That is why he turns to talking about inflation as transient.

These are price increases that make it significantly more expensive to live, also here in Sweden.

Our history of double-digit inflation figures is more than thirty years back in time.

But then rising prices led to rising wages, which in turn led to continued rising prices, all the while the competitiveness of the export industry weakened and jobs were thus threatened.

That is why the Riksbank got its strict inflation target in 1993. That is why it was so afraid of rising inflation that it raised interest rates in the middle of a burning financial crisis, in September 2008, after a few summer months with high inflation.

Next week, the next interest rate announcement will come from the Riksbank.

There will most likely be no interest rate increase, but the question is whether the message that the plans for a zero interest rate will be fixed for several years to come.